Part One of a two-part consideration of the Saskatchewan election, from Saskatchewan businessman Herb Pinder. The second runs on SundayThis one's going to be close. At least, that's what the Saskatchewan polls are saying about Monday's provincial election (on October 28.) In fact, not since Lorne Calvert snatched victory from an impending defeat by the newly constituted Saskatchewan Party twenty years ago, (2003) has it been this close..Saskatchewan elections are not usually like this. For most of the last century, Saskatchewan was the land of the CCF/NDP. Economically, it was in the wilderness economically and otherwise. Even during the heady years of the 1970s, the robust revenues enjoyed by the Blakeney government were gobbled up with a particular focus on resource companies. By the third term of this Rhodes Scholar idealistic socialist, shorts in movie theatres about “the family of crown corporations” were often booed.Meanwhile, the NDP land bank was buying farmland and leasing it back to farm producers. The NDP has won few rural seats since.In 1982 it all came to an end, in Conservative Grant Devine's landslide victory. Like Blakeney, Devine was an intellectual. Unlike Blakeney, Devine was a believer in free markets and economic growth driven by the private sector.Sadly for Devine, he was less fortunate with the business cycle. These were the years of Trudeau père's National Energy Policy and of sky high interest rates, when Canada Savings Bionds paid 18%.The anticipated rush of investment in the province never came. Instead, the Devine government funded big government initiatives, some successful, but others less so, and the decade long recession — and big spending deficits — resulted in a debt level that left bond holders nervous of default.The Devine rule led to the privatization of important resource companies — potash, oil, and uranium among others. This did not go unchallenged: Let by Roy Romanow, the NDP boycotted the legislature over the sale of SaskEnergy, a crown corporation with pipeline and gas distribution assets.In truth, it was a bogus issue. The electorate rightly dismissed a big-spending government, one that was also tinged with ethical issues.And so came a new plateau of stability; led by Premiers Roy Romanow and Lorne Calvert, the NDP were back in power for the next two decades. Romanow made drastic cuts to the health care system to address the Devine deficits and spiralling costs. Understated and underrated, Lorne Calvert delivered a solid performance before the Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall was elected in 2007 and then re-elected twice more.Like Blakeney, Wall got lucky. His timing coincided with the resource cycle and so therefore did his spending. Neither of them are likely to appreciate the comparison, but in many respects Wall and Romanow are different sides of the same coin.Both imbued with political ambition, these natural politicians with user friendly personalities, albeit from opposite philosophies, governed towards the middle. The imperative was to be the premier and be loved, versus advancing a strident agenda, conservative or progressive. During a golf game with Roy long after his retirement, I suggested to him that regardless of the party, he had been destined to be the Premier of Saskatchewan. Rather than taking exception, he thanked me for the intended compliment.So it was with Brad, more a populist than a conservative in his actions, notwithstanding his incredible rhetoric and conservative pedigree. A gifted speaker, funny and comfortable living his destiny, Brad challenges the legendary Tommy Douglas as the best politician ever in our province and perhaps beyond.Premier Moe, on the other hand, without the same gifts, is more committed to his vision for the province than a need to be the premier. He replaced Wall in early 2018, soon to be facing highly unusual circumstances. Only two years after taking office the COVID pandemic was underway, changing everything for him and all of us.The pandemic and the determination of Prime Minister Trudeau and his band of ideologues to ultimately eliminate the energy sector in Western Canada rightly captured much of the Moe government’s attention. The record immigration, again Ottawa policy, dramatically impacted the health care system, classroom composition, housing, and much else, none of it good for the any of the provincial governments in the country.Absent preparation or a template for the ravages of COVID, much was learned while also costing almost every political leader in the country his or her job. Premier Eby is hanging on in British Columbia with an uncertain outcome after crushing losses in the recent provincial election. The Premiers of Manitoba and Alberta were changed, albeit internally in Alberta versus a provincial election.Within the last week, successful Premier Blaine Higgs of New Brunswick, who generated a surplus while also reducing income taxes, was shown the door. It is anticipated by the polls and media reports that the once very popular Premier of Quebec might well soon be seeking other employment. And the high likelihood is that the prime minister will also feel the wrath of the electorate and its desire for change next October, assuming the government survives until then and Trudeau remains prime minister.Taking all of that into account, I will not be surprised if these exogenous dynamics have also impacted the popularity of Premier Moe.Yes, in 2018 the Saskatchewan Party captured its fourth consecutive win with 48 seats and more than 61% of the votes.But, the current polling is tight with the likelihood that as in Alberta, the larger cities of Saskatoon and Regina will become NDP strongholds, and the rural areas will remain the property of the Saskatchewan Party.With the above context, tomorrow's column dives more deeply into the issues facing electoral choice, some of which have nuance not necessarily obvious to all voters.
