THOMSON: Hurricane Carla on the Saskatchewan campaign trail

Yesterday evening, thousands of Saskatchewan residents tuned in to watch Scott Moe of the Saskatchewan Party debate Carla Beck of Saskatchewan's New Democrat Party. With the election only 11 days away, the question now is whether the leaders respective performance will have an impact on the outcome on 28 Oct. I think it might.

Last night the NDP and Carla Beck won the draw to open the debate.

Beck, who in the past has faced criticism for not having a strong voice, seemed to have found it. She came across as genuine and was able to clearly articulate what she and her party perceived to be her opponent's poor record, while succinctly highlighting a few of her key policy planks such as cutting the provincial fuel tax and investing in billions in education.

Scott Moe followed with a more didactic speech delivered in the automaton style that he is known for. His opening statement was a monotone memorized recital of the statistics that his government has achieved during its past mandate. It was only accentuated here and there with warnings about what pitfalls might befall the province if the NDP were returned to power. It was a solid, but an underwhelming performance in comparison to Beck’s.

As the debate progressed, there was little change from that initial theme.

Moe, while impressively armed with statistics, was outflanked by Beck’s passion and people focused talking points. Within the first 10 minutes of the debate it quickly became apparent that he didn’t have an effective plan to counter Beck’s approach, and while he didn’t falter, neither was he able to land any significant offensive blows.

The problem wasn’t that his facts or figures weren’t notable, they’re just weren’t very relatable.

For example, it’s great that the Sask Party government can claim it has recruited 253 physicians with their $300 million health human resources plan, but it means little when your small community emergency department is closed due to staffing issues and the closest care is 40-60 minutes away. Beck capitalized on that.

Additionally, while Beck was focused on talking about her plans for Saskatchewan, Scott Moe, on more than one occasion, lapsed into talking about Jagmeet Singh, Justin Trudeau and how Carla Beck and the NDP were in league with the federal leaders. It was a blatant and cynical attempt to link Beck to the two federal politicians who are exceedingly unpopular in the province.

I doubt I was alone when I closed my eyes and rubbed my temples thinking what a cringeworthy effort it was.

While there is no denying that the Sask NDP’s affiliation with their dismal and deranged federal counterparts is lamentable, Carla Beck is no Jagmeet Singh, and the Sask NDP bear little resemblance to their federal cousins. But that doesn’t mean that that their association isn’t impacting them negatively.

Scott Moe is a crafty politician, and he knows that many people find the Sask NDP unpalatable chiefly because of the association they have with their federal contemporaries. So it’s logical that if he can’t win on his record, he’ll try to secure a victory based solely on his federal adversaries poor reputation in the province.

But it's a risky move because it’s clear as day what he’s up too, and it is exactly the sort of crass politics that the people of the province are fed up with, and it may come back to bite him.

Still it wasn’t all bad news for Scott Moe and the Sask Party, he did manage to get in a few effective jabs during the debate pertaining to Beck’s and the NDP’s costing of their election promises. Unfortunately they were fleeting, and he was unable to effectively capitalize on them.

Perhaps if he had been more prepared, Moe would have known that this is where he should have focused his debate attack efforts. Because in reality the NDP have promised billions in spending, significant tax cuts, and a balanced budget.

Hell, at this point the only thing they haven’t promised is a unicorn in every household. Achieving their promises is going to be hard, if not impossible, regardless of what assurances Ron Styles, a former Sask Tel CEO and Deputy Finance Minister, may offer.

So why do I think this debate may be consequential to the outcome?

First, the election campaign is already half over.

Second, this was their one and only chance to spar publicly and it went badly for Moe.

If this debate is the only thing voters see of the two leaders in the lead up to 28 Oct, then Beck’s performance might just have been good enough to tip the scales in her favour to secure the 31 seats necessary for a majority.

Not only that but last night made it more than apparent to everyone that Scott Moe and the Sask Party are long in the tooth, complacent, and severely underestimated Beck and the NDP.

It may have just cost them the election.

One more thing: As debate moderator, CBC Radio's Merelda Fiddler got it right, as did the panel with their insightful questions. It was probably the best structured and conducted political debate that’s happened in Canada for ages. Hopefully the Federal Leaders’ Debates Commission paid attention and will go do likewise.