Geoff Russ is a writer and columnist based in Vancouver.Regardless of who wins the provincial election on October 19, this will have been a transformative campaign.The end of centrism as a political force in British Columbia was already more or less cemented when BC United, formerly the BC Liberals, was folded by Kevin Falcon in August. Conservatism made a massive comeback as the main alternative to the left-wing politics of the New Democrats, leaving the nebulous free enterprise coalition of the BC Liberals behind.Over the past few months, politics in BC have been pulled kicking and screaming into the 21st century, and the future is likely to look a lot more like Ontario, with three parties vying for power: one red, one blue, and one orange.When the old BC Liberal coalition formed in the 1990s, federal Liberals and their right-of-centre rivals agreed on far more than they do today. Aside from the NDP, there was a broad consensus in Ottawa that budgets had to be balanced and sharp eyes kept on the economy.In fact, Jean Chrétien’s Liberals even had a strong social conservative faction that swung votes in the House of Commons against the legalization of gay marriage and other progressive initiatives. These days, however, Justin Trudeau has made it clear that all new Liberal candidates must be stalwart social liberals.By 2005, the BC Liberal coalition was already becoming a relic as Stephen Harper's federal Tories swept away most of the ridings held by those socially conservative federal Liberals. Nonetheless, being the party in government helped the BC Liberals tape over those ideological cracks, and they remained firmly focused on the economy while sidelining social and cultural issues.The threat of the NDP returning to power in BC given their disastrous scandal-plagued governments of the 1990s also helped keep the BC Liberals together, and during their reign, many great things happened. Vancouver triumphantly held the 2010 Winter Olympics, and ribbons were cut on grand infrastructure projects across the Lower Mainland.Society, meanwhile, was rapidly changing and becoming more polarized, with progressive and centrist parties around the world rapidly seeing their social or cultural conservative factions eroding.The so-called "Blue Dog Democrats" in the United States were one example, with many Catholic representatives from working-class, rust-belt districts getting primaried or losing to Republicans as the ideological Overton Windows of the parties shifted.Despite the fact that many of the BC Liberal leaders had backgrounds as federal Liberals, federal Tory voters were the true backbone of the BC Liberal dynasty, which lasted 16 years.The 2020 provincial election serves as proof of this. Most BC Liberal candidates in the Lower Mainland were defeated, while seats in the rural regions of the province, where the federal Tories are strongest, largely held steady.During the 19 years before that, the BC NDP made steady gains in the Lower Mainland, where the federal Liberals are most concentrated. David Eby's unseating of Christy Clark in her own affluent riding of Vancouver-Point Grey in the May 2013 provincial election was a symbolic victory that shone a light on the changing politics of Vancouver. It was not federal NDP voters that turned Vancouver-Point Grey orange, and since then, the party has been mostly non-existent on the west side of Vancouver.Non-coincidentally, Trudeau had capped off a romping victory in the federal Liberal leadership race just a month before the 2013 provincial election. Trudeau promised change and progressivism that went much further than Clark’s BC Liberals and their centrist economic management.While the BC Liberals could accurately have been described as a sort of blue Liberal Party similar to their federal counterparts under Chrétien or Paul Martin in the 1990s, Trudeau's leadership relinquished any remaining elements of that generation. With the leftward tilt of the Ontario Liberals under Kathleen Wynne, the BC Liberals became increasingly isolated in terms of their politics, even if they still shared operators and staff with the OLP and the federal Liberals.The story of BC United's downfall and the rise of the BC Conservatives is well known by now. It took shape largely because the party alienated its right wing by refusing to engage in salient culture war battles and continuing to push centrist messaging while Pierre Poilievre rose to lead the federal Tories.There is now no political party in which a Poilievre supporter and a Trudeau supporter can co-exist, and that is a simple fact. The enmity between the Tory and Liberal leaders has undeniably trickled down to voters.Compared to the 1990s, the federal Liberals are now culturally, socially, fiscally, and economically much closer to the NDP. Meanwhile the resurgent BC Conservatives have made common cause with Poilievre, cementing new political battle lines.There will be no reviving the free enterprise coalition of Chrétien Liberals and Tories.Karin Kirkpatrick, a former BC United MLA running as an independent, is the closest there is to a federal Liberal candidate in the 2024 BC provincial election. She has the endorsement of Trudeau cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson, whom she helped to win the riding of North Vancouver in the 2015 federal election.Furthermore, Kirkpatrick has cited her distaste for social conservatives as one of the reasons why she decided to run against both BC Conservative and NDP candidates in the riding of West Vancouver-Capilano. Obviously, Kirkpatrick will have a tough time retaining her seat, however veterans of the BC Liberal dynasty have made it clear that there is a desire to start up a provincial party that specifically appeals to federal Liberals.In the Trudeau era, that means competition for the NDP on the centre-left, akin to Ontario where the OLP and the NDP have to battle for the progressive vote while the PCs sneak up the middle to win majority governments, as they have in both 2018 and 2022.Much of the federal Liberal vote is heavily concentrated in the Lower Mainland, and especially in Vancouver, which the NDP has carefully cultivated over the past two decades. If a true Liberal party starts up operations after this provincial election, the NDP will have a two-front war on their hands.
Geoff Russ is a writer and columnist based in Vancouver.Regardless of who wins the provincial election on October 19, this will have been a transformative campaign.The end of centrism as a political force in British Columbia was already more or less cemented when BC United, formerly the BC Liberals, was folded by Kevin Falcon in August. Conservatism made a massive comeback as the main alternative to the left-wing politics of the New Democrats, leaving the nebulous free enterprise coalition of the BC Liberals behind.Over the past few months, politics in BC have been pulled kicking and screaming into the 21st century, and the future is likely to look a lot more like Ontario, with three parties vying for power: one red, one blue, and one orange.When the old BC Liberal coalition formed in the 1990s, federal Liberals and their right-of-centre rivals agreed on far more than they do today. Aside from the NDP, there was a broad consensus in Ottawa that budgets had to be balanced and sharp eyes kept on the economy.In fact, Jean Chrétien’s Liberals even had a strong social conservative faction that swung votes in the House of Commons against the legalization of gay marriage and other progressive initiatives. These days, however, Justin Trudeau has made it clear that all new Liberal candidates must be stalwart social liberals.By 2005, the BC Liberal coalition was already becoming a relic as Stephen Harper's federal Tories swept away most of the ridings held by those socially conservative federal Liberals. Nonetheless, being the party in government helped the BC Liberals tape over those ideological cracks, and they remained firmly focused on the economy while sidelining social and cultural issues.The threat of the NDP returning to power in BC given their disastrous scandal-plagued governments of the 1990s also helped keep the BC Liberals together, and during their reign, many great things happened. Vancouver triumphantly held the 2010 Winter Olympics, and ribbons were cut on grand infrastructure projects across the Lower Mainland.Society, meanwhile, was rapidly changing and becoming more polarized, with progressive and centrist parties around the world rapidly seeing their social or cultural conservative factions eroding.The so-called "Blue Dog Democrats" in the United States were one example, with many Catholic representatives from working-class, rust-belt districts getting primaried or losing to Republicans as the ideological Overton Windows of the parties shifted.Despite the fact that many of the BC Liberal leaders had backgrounds as federal Liberals, federal Tory voters were the true backbone of the BC Liberal dynasty, which lasted 16 years.The 2020 provincial election serves as proof of this. Most BC Liberal candidates in the Lower Mainland were defeated, while seats in the rural regions of the province, where the federal Tories are strongest, largely held steady.During the 19 years before that, the BC NDP made steady gains in the Lower Mainland, where the federal Liberals are most concentrated. David Eby's unseating of Christy Clark in her own affluent riding of Vancouver-Point Grey in the May 2013 provincial election was a symbolic victory that shone a light on the changing politics of Vancouver. It was not federal NDP voters that turned Vancouver-Point Grey orange, and since then, the party has been mostly non-existent on the west side of Vancouver.Non-coincidentally, Trudeau had capped off a romping victory in the federal Liberal leadership race just a month before the 2013 provincial election. Trudeau promised change and progressivism that went much further than Clark’s BC Liberals and their centrist economic management.While the BC Liberals could accurately have been described as a sort of blue Liberal Party similar to their federal counterparts under Chrétien or Paul Martin in the 1990s, Trudeau's leadership relinquished any remaining elements of that generation. With the leftward tilt of the Ontario Liberals under Kathleen Wynne, the BC Liberals became increasingly isolated in terms of their politics, even if they still shared operators and staff with the OLP and the federal Liberals.The story of BC United's downfall and the rise of the BC Conservatives is well known by now. It took shape largely because the party alienated its right wing by refusing to engage in salient culture war battles and continuing to push centrist messaging while Pierre Poilievre rose to lead the federal Tories.There is now no political party in which a Poilievre supporter and a Trudeau supporter can co-exist, and that is a simple fact. The enmity between the Tory and Liberal leaders has undeniably trickled down to voters.Compared to the 1990s, the federal Liberals are now culturally, socially, fiscally, and economically much closer to the NDP. Meanwhile the resurgent BC Conservatives have made common cause with Poilievre, cementing new political battle lines.There will be no reviving the free enterprise coalition of Chrétien Liberals and Tories.Karin Kirkpatrick, a former BC United MLA running as an independent, is the closest there is to a federal Liberal candidate in the 2024 BC provincial election. She has the endorsement of Trudeau cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson, whom she helped to win the riding of North Vancouver in the 2015 federal election.Furthermore, Kirkpatrick has cited her distaste for social conservatives as one of the reasons why she decided to run against both BC Conservative and NDP candidates in the riding of West Vancouver-Capilano. Obviously, Kirkpatrick will have a tough time retaining her seat, however veterans of the BC Liberal dynasty have made it clear that there is a desire to start up a provincial party that specifically appeals to federal Liberals.In the Trudeau era, that means competition for the NDP on the centre-left, akin to Ontario where the OLP and the NDP have to battle for the progressive vote while the PCs sneak up the middle to win majority governments, as they have in both 2018 and 2022.Much of the federal Liberal vote is heavily concentrated in the Lower Mainland, and especially in Vancouver, which the NDP has carefully cultivated over the past two decades. If a true Liberal party starts up operations after this provincial election, the NDP will have a two-front war on their hands.
