Guest Columnist: Michelle Rempel Garner is the Conservative MP for Calgary Nose Hill & the Official Opposition Shadow Minister of Natural Resources.Under-representation in the House of Commons is a flashpoint for Western alienation, so when changes are made to the number of electoral seats that a province has, people in the West tend to take notice..With a population declining in Quebec relative to the growth in Alberta, the Elections Canada process determined that as of 2024, Quebec would lose one seat, and Alberta would gain three..As much as under-representation in the House of Commons is a legitimate sore spot for Western Canadians, the ability to preserve Quebec’s heft in Ottawa is equally as important to Quebec voters. So the proposed changes were destined to come to a head in Ottawa at some point. .That happened just days ago when the Bloc Quebecois forced a vote in the House of Commons on a motion to upend these results and amend the formula to ensure that Quebec wouldn’t lose a seat, regardless of the province’s declining relative population. .The vote passed with support from all parties, including about half the Conservative caucus. .I voted against the motion. Any proposal that didn’t move towards representation by population is something that I know would rightly never fly in my Calgary riding. .That said, this vote highlights a bigger issue in the large right-of-centre voter coalition in Canada. No matter what the outcome of the current process for electoral seat reallocation, groups of voters in Canada are going to feel like they got a raw deal..Conservatives – particularly Western Canadian Conservatives – have avoided talking about potential changes to our electoral system; that is, changing from first-past-the-post status quo to something else that would better recognize regional and special interest voters. In the past, I have argued against it because previous attempts by left-of-centre parties have shied away from taking electoral reform to a national referendum. Any changes to electoral system reform should be brought to a vote of Canadians, but in light of this week’s Bloc Quebecois motion and the deep frustration many Canadians feel with government institutions as we emerge from pandemic restrictions, maybe this is something conservatives shouldn’t automatically shy away from. .After winning the popular vote in the last two elections and not making any gains under the first-past-the-post system, it’s clear that the fate of the federal Conservative Party is at least partly tied to how well the progressive-left vote is split in vote-rich parts of the country. Even with a charismatic leader, this situation may well persist. The Conservative Party should not have to rely on split in the left-of-centre vote to win..Some form of electoral system reform might also inject some badly needed boldness into our national policy debates. Our elections have tended to rehash already well-established policy positions, as the first-past-the-post system sidelines most voters who hold views that do not overlap with their geographical location or generic ‘voter profile’..For example, a right-of-centre voter in downtown Toronto whose key issues are socially conservative stands virtually no chance of being represented by someone who shares their views. A woman in southern rural Saskatchewan who wants to be represented by someone who both supports oil and gas development and progressive social issues is likely to be in the same boat. These types of voters need to know that their voices are heard so that major political irritants don’t end with manifestations of civil disobedience..A change to our electoral system – like some form of mixed-member proportional representation – could see Canadians continue to elect local MPs in their constituency by a majority vote, but also other MPs elected from a national or provincial list to give voice to other voters, relative to their overall percentage of the popular vote. It may be different than what we do right now, but it’s a remarkably simple system used in many stable democracies around the world, including Germany and New Zealand. .At present, our first-past-the-post system incentivizes all parties to prioritize policy that caters to the mainstream of voters in seats in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia due to their sheer number. Politicians are motivated to spend the bulk of time during a federal election campaign in those areas if they want to form government. A different system might force political leaders from all parties to really think about Western Canadian issues, for example..And after the second ouster of a Conservative party leader in less than three years, a different electoral system might not be such a bad thing for the overall health of the right-of-centre political spectrum in Canada. Instead of politically knifing one another over positions on conversion therapy and abortion, maybe several parties that broadly represent moderate progressive conservatism, social conservatism, libertarianism, and regional interests would be healthier than the closed-loop of score-settling that we’re currently working in. .To be clear, I remain hopeful that the current Conservative Party leadership race will unite a coalition divided between regions and progressive and social conservatives that has broadened during the reigns of both Andrew Scheer and Erin O’toole, and that Conservatives will form government in the next election. However, if the Conservative Party ever splinters again under a first past the post system, this might guarantee a Liberal government for years due to vote splitting..Conservatives have often opposed a more proportional form of representation out of fear that they could not win with it. This may be selling ourselves short. Under a different electoral system, a constellation of parties representing different views on the right-of-centre spectrum might allow us to work in concert on the issues that we broadly agree upon, while definitively agreeing to disagree on the things that we don’t. That is, instead of spending time figuring out how to get social and progressive conservatives to put water in their respective wine, a change in the electoral system could promote all political parties to take more clear stances on issues and lessen infighting..This argument isn’t made simply to position the right-of-centre movement to win. Rather, our current electoral system encourages the centralization of power in political party leadership and makes it difficult to hold the executive of the federal government to account. A system where opposition parties have more power to hold the government to account might better serve every Canadian, regardless of how they vote..The trucker convoys, the policy war against Canada’s energy sector, the invocation of the emergencies act, the weaponization of vaccine hesitancy, the perpetual infighting of the Conservative Party caucus, the Bloc Quebecois motion – all happening as our country needs to heal from COVID restrictions, and as Putin invades Ukraine – shows that our system might benefit from some change..Maybe right-of-centre voter – particularly those in Western Canada – should finally explore that option. Otherwise, as the vote on the Bloc motion shows, the odds might never be in our favor..Michell Rempel Garner is the Conservative MP for Calgary Nose Hill & the Official Opposition Shadow Minister of Natural Resources
Guest Columnist: Michelle Rempel Garner is the Conservative MP for Calgary Nose Hill & the Official Opposition Shadow Minister of Natural Resources.Under-representation in the House of Commons is a flashpoint for Western alienation, so when changes are made to the number of electoral seats that a province has, people in the West tend to take notice..With a population declining in Quebec relative to the growth in Alberta, the Elections Canada process determined that as of 2024, Quebec would lose one seat, and Alberta would gain three..As much as under-representation in the House of Commons is a legitimate sore spot for Western Canadians, the ability to preserve Quebec’s heft in Ottawa is equally as important to Quebec voters. So the proposed changes were destined to come to a head in Ottawa at some point. .That happened just days ago when the Bloc Quebecois forced a vote in the House of Commons on a motion to upend these results and amend the formula to ensure that Quebec wouldn’t lose a seat, regardless of the province’s declining relative population. .The vote passed with support from all parties, including about half the Conservative caucus. .I voted against the motion. Any proposal that didn’t move towards representation by population is something that I know would rightly never fly in my Calgary riding. .That said, this vote highlights a bigger issue in the large right-of-centre voter coalition in Canada. No matter what the outcome of the current process for electoral seat reallocation, groups of voters in Canada are going to feel like they got a raw deal..Conservatives – particularly Western Canadian Conservatives – have avoided talking about potential changes to our electoral system; that is, changing from first-past-the-post status quo to something else that would better recognize regional and special interest voters. In the past, I have argued against it because previous attempts by left-of-centre parties have shied away from taking electoral reform to a national referendum. Any changes to electoral system reform should be brought to a vote of Canadians, but in light of this week’s Bloc Quebecois motion and the deep frustration many Canadians feel with government institutions as we emerge from pandemic restrictions, maybe this is something conservatives shouldn’t automatically shy away from. .After winning the popular vote in the last two elections and not making any gains under the first-past-the-post system, it’s clear that the fate of the federal Conservative Party is at least partly tied to how well the progressive-left vote is split in vote-rich parts of the country. Even with a charismatic leader, this situation may well persist. The Conservative Party should not have to rely on split in the left-of-centre vote to win..Some form of electoral system reform might also inject some badly needed boldness into our national policy debates. Our elections have tended to rehash already well-established policy positions, as the first-past-the-post system sidelines most voters who hold views that do not overlap with their geographical location or generic ‘voter profile’..For example, a right-of-centre voter in downtown Toronto whose key issues are socially conservative stands virtually no chance of being represented by someone who shares their views. A woman in southern rural Saskatchewan who wants to be represented by someone who both supports oil and gas development and progressive social issues is likely to be in the same boat. These types of voters need to know that their voices are heard so that major political irritants don’t end with manifestations of civil disobedience..A change to our electoral system – like some form of mixed-member proportional representation – could see Canadians continue to elect local MPs in their constituency by a majority vote, but also other MPs elected from a national or provincial list to give voice to other voters, relative to their overall percentage of the popular vote. It may be different than what we do right now, but it’s a remarkably simple system used in many stable democracies around the world, including Germany and New Zealand. .At present, our first-past-the-post system incentivizes all parties to prioritize policy that caters to the mainstream of voters in seats in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia due to their sheer number. Politicians are motivated to spend the bulk of time during a federal election campaign in those areas if they want to form government. A different system might force political leaders from all parties to really think about Western Canadian issues, for example..And after the second ouster of a Conservative party leader in less than three years, a different electoral system might not be such a bad thing for the overall health of the right-of-centre political spectrum in Canada. Instead of politically knifing one another over positions on conversion therapy and abortion, maybe several parties that broadly represent moderate progressive conservatism, social conservatism, libertarianism, and regional interests would be healthier than the closed-loop of score-settling that we’re currently working in. .To be clear, I remain hopeful that the current Conservative Party leadership race will unite a coalition divided between regions and progressive and social conservatives that has broadened during the reigns of both Andrew Scheer and Erin O’toole, and that Conservatives will form government in the next election. However, if the Conservative Party ever splinters again under a first past the post system, this might guarantee a Liberal government for years due to vote splitting..Conservatives have often opposed a more proportional form of representation out of fear that they could not win with it. This may be selling ourselves short. Under a different electoral system, a constellation of parties representing different views on the right-of-centre spectrum might allow us to work in concert on the issues that we broadly agree upon, while definitively agreeing to disagree on the things that we don’t. That is, instead of spending time figuring out how to get social and progressive conservatives to put water in their respective wine, a change in the electoral system could promote all political parties to take more clear stances on issues and lessen infighting..This argument isn’t made simply to position the right-of-centre movement to win. Rather, our current electoral system encourages the centralization of power in political party leadership and makes it difficult to hold the executive of the federal government to account. A system where opposition parties have more power to hold the government to account might better serve every Canadian, regardless of how they vote..The trucker convoys, the policy war against Canada’s energy sector, the invocation of the emergencies act, the weaponization of vaccine hesitancy, the perpetual infighting of the Conservative Party caucus, the Bloc Quebecois motion – all happening as our country needs to heal from COVID restrictions, and as Putin invades Ukraine – shows that our system might benefit from some change..Maybe right-of-centre voter – particularly those in Western Canada – should finally explore that option. Otherwise, as the vote on the Bloc motion shows, the odds might never be in our favor..Michell Rempel Garner is the Conservative MP for Calgary Nose Hill & the Official Opposition Shadow Minister of Natural Resources
