Second in a series of two examinations of current and likely future wars in the Middle East. The first part can be found here.Willing to accept the obvious fact or not, a war on the Western world rages in Gaza and the Ukraine. China is clearly on the warpath to capture Taiwan, violating its airspace regularly, and intimidating the Philippines by ramming naval ships, now totalling six incidents. It is also sobering that Iran, the primary source of the violence in the Middle East, is also sending weapons to Russia, which has been holding hands with China on a range of joint activities.When do we accept the reality that we have enemies waging war or biding their time? Except for 9/11, not since the fall of the Soviet Union has the Western world been so directly confronted. Unfortunately, it is risky and dangerous to not see the future. We can, after all, minimize the damage by early engagement. Historical precedents are instructive; the danger of appeasement, well learned but seemingly forgotten, was Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s declaration of “peace in our time”. The word “appeasement” has become “a byword for the futility of appeasing expansionist totalitarian states."For, following the Munich Agreement in 1938, Germany broke its promises and conquered Poland in 1939. (And Chamberlain resigned in favour of Winston Churchill.)It worked out. But, what was the cost, including lives lost, by delaying the inevitability of World War II?Decades later the model of how Western countries should protect their interests was displayed by President Ronald Reagan. One of the bullies of the day was Muammar Gaddafi, a revolutionary Arab nationalist whose rule of Libya began in 1969. One aspect of his intimidation was claiming a 200-mile limit in the Mediterranean Sea off the Libyan coast.In 1986, a time of “heightened tension between Libya and the United States” Reagan deliberately positioned an aircraft carrier within the limit. Shortly after entering the space, Libyan jets lifted, and after being met by American pilots from the Sixth Fleet, splashed into the Mediterranean.The next part of the story was the bombing of a discotheque in West Berlin frequented by US soldiers. The explosion, which killed 2 U.S. soldiers and injured 79, was traced back to Gaddafi. Ten days later a squadron of jets lifted off an Air Force Base in England, circled France (which did not allow a flyover) and attacked Gaddafi. A missile into his tent killed his daughter.A funny thing happened — Gaddafi not only ceased his bullying, but also eventually became a US ally. Other potential protagonists around the world took note, and whether admitted or not, NATO and other democracies took comfort that the world was safer with President Reagan's demonstrated willingness to exercise US power to protect democracy. One can imagine other potential insurgencies were dissuaded.This popular president also fostered, or at least accelerated, the collapse of the Soviet Union, forever cementing his legacy as a transformational president.Lebanon was once a successful country, and its capital Beirut described as “the Paris of the Middle East.” But enabled and financed by Iran, the terrorist entity Hezbollah now presides over a broken country, and its mission, at Iran's behest, is to destroy Israel. Iran’s heavy fingerprints are also evident in Syria, Iraq, and the rebel Houthi resistance in Yemen.Iran is also well along in the development of a nuclear weapon, adding to the fear generated in the Gulf of Arabia and beyond. The world could use a Ronald Reagan but instead, history has given us Barack Obama and Joe Biden. They weakened or ignored sanctions allowing Iran to generate oil revenues which finance nuclear development and its malevolence throughout the region.Obama further demonstrated weakness by announcing a red line in the sand concerning illegal Syrian military activities. The line crossed soon thereafter, Obama's curious comment, “I didn't set that red line, you did” sent another signal to the bullies.It seemed obvious that President Putin was testing American resolve by marshalling troops on the Ukrainian border. Not receiving any American pushback, he began the current war that is damaging both countries. As is the case with Israel in Gaza, the Biden administration provides important military capability, but conditional on his approval of targets.What is the wisdom of assisting a war effort, but also limiting its effectiveness while determining strategy from a great distance?The message from the White House, almost a plea to Iran not to escalate, makes America sound like a supplicant. The strategic theocrats continue to threaten the existence of Israel, but far from harm’s way. If Israel falls, will the vile theocrats be satisfied, or will success encourage more aggression?There are alternatives to this appeasement and containment. Michael Oren, in a Free Press column on November 15, shared the moment in 2010 when Ehud Barak, the Israeli ambassador to the US and a former Prime Minister, exhorted the US national security advisor and his senior staff, “one night of bombing by your B1s and B2s and the Iranian nuclear problem disappears.” These high-level bombers, unique to the US Air Force, could have terminated Iran’s nuclear capability.That option still exists today. At no risk to the bombers or soldiers of any country, the US could send a strong message to Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Russia, and China.As sad as it is ironic, those who show weakness by appeasement and limitations on allies under siege would have better achieved the noble objectives of less killing and destruction by following the bold but wise plea from then Ambassador Barak.They would gain respect from allies and enemies alike, end the belligerence of Iran by threatening more bombing if necessary, and reinstate the US as the protector of democracy and human freedom. Just as the Soviet Union collapsed in the face of Reagan’s strength, so might the Russian and Iranian regimes, and China would rethink its brazen intimidation in the South China Sea.The re-election of Donald Trump might also cause the bullies to back off. So, the support of Israel and its future safety are necessary both for Israelis and other Jewish people. But along with Ukraine, it also sends signals to totalitarian, theocratic, and other protagonists, that the US will protect democratic countries.To overstate the case, decades ago I attended a dinner featuring a leading writer and conservative of the day, William F. Buckley, Jr. Erudite and often arrogant, responding to a reporter’s question about how could he sleep well knowing that President Reagan might push the nuclear button, Buckley responded that he sleeps very well knowing Reagan would.It is the bullies, fearful of power, strength, and proactive defence who were losing sleep.Second in a series of two. The first part can be found here.
Second in a series of two examinations of current and likely future wars in the Middle East. The first part can be found here.Willing to accept the obvious fact or not, a war on the Western world rages in Gaza and the Ukraine. China is clearly on the warpath to capture Taiwan, violating its airspace regularly, and intimidating the Philippines by ramming naval ships, now totalling six incidents. It is also sobering that Iran, the primary source of the violence in the Middle East, is also sending weapons to Russia, which has been holding hands with China on a range of joint activities.When do we accept the reality that we have enemies waging war or biding their time? Except for 9/11, not since the fall of the Soviet Union has the Western world been so directly confronted. Unfortunately, it is risky and dangerous to not see the future. We can, after all, minimize the damage by early engagement. Historical precedents are instructive; the danger of appeasement, well learned but seemingly forgotten, was Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s declaration of “peace in our time”. The word “appeasement” has become “a byword for the futility of appeasing expansionist totalitarian states."For, following the Munich Agreement in 1938, Germany broke its promises and conquered Poland in 1939. (And Chamberlain resigned in favour of Winston Churchill.)It worked out. But, what was the cost, including lives lost, by delaying the inevitability of World War II?Decades later the model of how Western countries should protect their interests was displayed by President Ronald Reagan. One of the bullies of the day was Muammar Gaddafi, a revolutionary Arab nationalist whose rule of Libya began in 1969. One aspect of his intimidation was claiming a 200-mile limit in the Mediterranean Sea off the Libyan coast.In 1986, a time of “heightened tension between Libya and the United States” Reagan deliberately positioned an aircraft carrier within the limit. Shortly after entering the space, Libyan jets lifted, and after being met by American pilots from the Sixth Fleet, splashed into the Mediterranean.The next part of the story was the bombing of a discotheque in West Berlin frequented by US soldiers. The explosion, which killed 2 U.S. soldiers and injured 79, was traced back to Gaddafi. Ten days later a squadron of jets lifted off an Air Force Base in England, circled France (which did not allow a flyover) and attacked Gaddafi. A missile into his tent killed his daughter.A funny thing happened — Gaddafi not only ceased his bullying, but also eventually became a US ally. Other potential protagonists around the world took note, and whether admitted or not, NATO and other democracies took comfort that the world was safer with President Reagan's demonstrated willingness to exercise US power to protect democracy. One can imagine other potential insurgencies were dissuaded.This popular president also fostered, or at least accelerated, the collapse of the Soviet Union, forever cementing his legacy as a transformational president.Lebanon was once a successful country, and its capital Beirut described as “the Paris of the Middle East.” But enabled and financed by Iran, the terrorist entity Hezbollah now presides over a broken country, and its mission, at Iran's behest, is to destroy Israel. Iran’s heavy fingerprints are also evident in Syria, Iraq, and the rebel Houthi resistance in Yemen.Iran is also well along in the development of a nuclear weapon, adding to the fear generated in the Gulf of Arabia and beyond. The world could use a Ronald Reagan but instead, history has given us Barack Obama and Joe Biden. They weakened or ignored sanctions allowing Iran to generate oil revenues which finance nuclear development and its malevolence throughout the region.Obama further demonstrated weakness by announcing a red line in the sand concerning illegal Syrian military activities. The line crossed soon thereafter, Obama's curious comment, “I didn't set that red line, you did” sent another signal to the bullies.It seemed obvious that President Putin was testing American resolve by marshalling troops on the Ukrainian border. Not receiving any American pushback, he began the current war that is damaging both countries. As is the case with Israel in Gaza, the Biden administration provides important military capability, but conditional on his approval of targets.What is the wisdom of assisting a war effort, but also limiting its effectiveness while determining strategy from a great distance?The message from the White House, almost a plea to Iran not to escalate, makes America sound like a supplicant. The strategic theocrats continue to threaten the existence of Israel, but far from harm’s way. If Israel falls, will the vile theocrats be satisfied, or will success encourage more aggression?There are alternatives to this appeasement and containment. Michael Oren, in a Free Press column on November 15, shared the moment in 2010 when Ehud Barak, the Israeli ambassador to the US and a former Prime Minister, exhorted the US national security advisor and his senior staff, “one night of bombing by your B1s and B2s and the Iranian nuclear problem disappears.” These high-level bombers, unique to the US Air Force, could have terminated Iran’s nuclear capability.That option still exists today. At no risk to the bombers or soldiers of any country, the US could send a strong message to Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Russia, and China.As sad as it is ironic, those who show weakness by appeasement and limitations on allies under siege would have better achieved the noble objectives of less killing and destruction by following the bold but wise plea from then Ambassador Barak.They would gain respect from allies and enemies alike, end the belligerence of Iran by threatening more bombing if necessary, and reinstate the US as the protector of democracy and human freedom. Just as the Soviet Union collapsed in the face of Reagan’s strength, so might the Russian and Iranian regimes, and China would rethink its brazen intimidation in the South China Sea.The re-election of Donald Trump might also cause the bullies to back off. So, the support of Israel and its future safety are necessary both for Israelis and other Jewish people. But along with Ukraine, it also sends signals to totalitarian, theocratic, and other protagonists, that the US will protect democratic countries.To overstate the case, decades ago I attended a dinner featuring a leading writer and conservative of the day, William F. Buckley, Jr. Erudite and often arrogant, responding to a reporter’s question about how could he sleep well knowing that President Reagan might push the nuclear button, Buckley responded that he sleeps very well knowing Reagan would.It is the bullies, fearful of power, strength, and proactive defence who were losing sleep.Second in a series of two. The first part can be found here.
