Usually, the first priority for a new political party leader is to get a seat in the legislature or parliament. Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi has been pretending he isn’t in a hurry to seek a seat in the Alberta legislature but that’s anything but true. Having ridden into the NDP leadership with an impressive level of party support, people anticipated Nenshi’s political ascendency to progress quickly. Instead, it has stalled.The first comprehensive poll held in Alberta has found that voter support for NDP under Nenshi’s new leadership remains flatlined and they trail Danielle Smith’s UCP by 14 points. Typically, a new party leader can expect a honeymoon with electors and a bump in support. This hasn’t happened for Naheed Nenshi. While he's proven himself to be a formidable organizer in the leadership race, he hasn’t endeared himself to the electorate at large.Nenshi's working hard on the pancake circuit while legacy media dutifully carry his water for him with breathless coverage of how well-attended his events have been, but the public hasn’t taken notice of him. When the summer ends and public events dry up, Nenshi will be challenged by his lack of a seat more than ever.The legislative session will begin this fall in Alberta and unknown backbench MLA Christina Gray will serve as the leader of the opposition while Nenshi remains on the outside looking in. Many Albertans don’t know who Nenshi really is. If a person isn’t an avid CBC viewer or didn’t live in Calgary during his reign as mayor, they really aren’t too familiar with him. It will take more than flipping some pancakes at rodeos to get people to know him.The legislature is the natural place to establish himself as an opposition leader and potential future premier. It’s where Nenshi can hold the premier’s feet to the fire on policies and where he can promote NDP motions. It would keep him in the news scroll and establish him in the minds of Albertans as a possible premier in waiting.Alas, for now the best Nenshi will be able to do is hang around in the legislature atrium after sessions and hope that a reporter wants to speak with him. With media outlets getting smaller, few (aside from the Western Standard of course) have the resources to keep a reporter on site full time. They garner their information from debates on bills and get video clips from the legislative session. They don’t sit in groups to scrum party leaders in the lobby as they used to.Nenshi is a canny political player. He knows he is at a terrible disadvantage as a leader without a seat but for now there is nothing he can do about it.Normally, somebody within a party would be willing to step aside from a safe seat for a new party leader. Clearly right now, nobody within the NDP caucus is willing to do this for Nenshi.Part of the problem is that Nenshi can’t offer great incentives for an MLA to fall on their sword and give him their seat. A party in power can offer all sorts of appointments to ensure an MLA taking one for the team has a soft landing. A party in opposition is limited, regarding such political horse trading.The safest seats for the NDP are in Edmonton. There may be an MLA or two there willing to step aside to make room for Nenshi but it wouldn’t be ideal for him. If the NDP can’t make gains in Calgary, they will not have a chance of winning the next election. They want to keep Nenshi in Calgary where they hope to build a more solid base of support.In Calgary, there are a few seats that could be considered safe but the MLAs sitting in them don’t want to give them up. This indicates Nenshi isn’t as popular within the party ranks as some may think. Sure, he won the leadership with an astounding level of support. To get a seat though, he needs some love coming from the old NDP stalwarts and it doesn’t appear to be there.While Lethbridge West has opened and will be holding a by-election soon, it is far from a safe seat for Nenshi. He could very possibly run and lose down there which would cause deep embarrassment. He is better off to bide his time than to take such a risk.It will still be more than three years before the next general election in Alberta. Nenshi will surely find his way into the legislature well before then. But, he isn’t riding the wave of popularity that legacy media implies though and needs every advantage he can get.With every month Nenshi sits forlornly outside the legislature while another MLA serves as opposition leader, Nenshi will look weaker and weaker. Being seatless right now is an inconvenience for Nenshi right now but the quest for a seat will turn to one of desperation if he doesn’t get a chance to pursue one soon.
Usually, the first priority for a new political party leader is to get a seat in the legislature or parliament. Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi has been pretending he isn’t in a hurry to seek a seat in the Alberta legislature but that’s anything but true. Having ridden into the NDP leadership with an impressive level of party support, people anticipated Nenshi’s political ascendency to progress quickly. Instead, it has stalled.The first comprehensive poll held in Alberta has found that voter support for NDP under Nenshi’s new leadership remains flatlined and they trail Danielle Smith’s UCP by 14 points. Typically, a new party leader can expect a honeymoon with electors and a bump in support. This hasn’t happened for Naheed Nenshi. While he's proven himself to be a formidable organizer in the leadership race, he hasn’t endeared himself to the electorate at large.Nenshi's working hard on the pancake circuit while legacy media dutifully carry his water for him with breathless coverage of how well-attended his events have been, but the public hasn’t taken notice of him. When the summer ends and public events dry up, Nenshi will be challenged by his lack of a seat more than ever.The legislative session will begin this fall in Alberta and unknown backbench MLA Christina Gray will serve as the leader of the opposition while Nenshi remains on the outside looking in. Many Albertans don’t know who Nenshi really is. If a person isn’t an avid CBC viewer or didn’t live in Calgary during his reign as mayor, they really aren’t too familiar with him. It will take more than flipping some pancakes at rodeos to get people to know him.The legislature is the natural place to establish himself as an opposition leader and potential future premier. It’s where Nenshi can hold the premier’s feet to the fire on policies and where he can promote NDP motions. It would keep him in the news scroll and establish him in the minds of Albertans as a possible premier in waiting.Alas, for now the best Nenshi will be able to do is hang around in the legislature atrium after sessions and hope that a reporter wants to speak with him. With media outlets getting smaller, few (aside from the Western Standard of course) have the resources to keep a reporter on site full time. They garner their information from debates on bills and get video clips from the legislative session. They don’t sit in groups to scrum party leaders in the lobby as they used to.Nenshi is a canny political player. He knows he is at a terrible disadvantage as a leader without a seat but for now there is nothing he can do about it.Normally, somebody within a party would be willing to step aside from a safe seat for a new party leader. Clearly right now, nobody within the NDP caucus is willing to do this for Nenshi.Part of the problem is that Nenshi can’t offer great incentives for an MLA to fall on their sword and give him their seat. A party in power can offer all sorts of appointments to ensure an MLA taking one for the team has a soft landing. A party in opposition is limited, regarding such political horse trading.The safest seats for the NDP are in Edmonton. There may be an MLA or two there willing to step aside to make room for Nenshi but it wouldn’t be ideal for him. If the NDP can’t make gains in Calgary, they will not have a chance of winning the next election. They want to keep Nenshi in Calgary where they hope to build a more solid base of support.In Calgary, there are a few seats that could be considered safe but the MLAs sitting in them don’t want to give them up. This indicates Nenshi isn’t as popular within the party ranks as some may think. Sure, he won the leadership with an astounding level of support. To get a seat though, he needs some love coming from the old NDP stalwarts and it doesn’t appear to be there.While Lethbridge West has opened and will be holding a by-election soon, it is far from a safe seat for Nenshi. He could very possibly run and lose down there which would cause deep embarrassment. He is better off to bide his time than to take such a risk.It will still be more than three years before the next general election in Alberta. Nenshi will surely find his way into the legislature well before then. But, he isn’t riding the wave of popularity that legacy media implies though and needs every advantage he can get.With every month Nenshi sits forlornly outside the legislature while another MLA serves as opposition leader, Nenshi will look weaker and weaker. Being seatless right now is an inconvenience for Nenshi right now but the quest for a seat will turn to one of desperation if he doesn’t get a chance to pursue one soon.
