A partisan civil war among Alberta conservatives broke out in 2008. Progressive Conservatives (PCs) had been in power since 1971 and a new, upstart conservative movement called the Wildrose Party was threatening its reign. The battles were vicious as each party accused the other of everything under the sun from extremism to corruption. The political intrigue was fascinating as MPs crossed the floor in both directions while infighting plagued both parties.Then, in 2015 the unthinkable happened. While Alberta’s top two conservative parties battled each other, the NDP under Rachel Notley slid up the middle and won a majority government. The province considered to be the most conservative in Canada had just put socialists in power.I was managing a campaign for one of the Wildrose candidates in that election. Our sights were set on the PCs and we campaigned relentlessly against them. While we were crippled by the mass floor-crossing led by Wildrose Party Leader Danielle Smith months before, we still managed a strong campaign and were confident we would win a strong opposition role if not a minority government. The voters didn’t agree.On election night in our campaign headquarters, we were prepared to pop the champagne corks for our local candidate, if not for the party itself. We were in shock as the numbers rolled in. The PCs were decimated as they dropped from 70 seats to nine in the legislature. The Wildrose Party gained ground and won 21 seats but was nearly shut out of the cities. The NDP with only 41% popular support went from four seats to 50 and became government. A pall quickly descended up the headquarters where our candidate had become a casualty, while a small core of us remained to drink away the evening and try to figure out what the hell had just happened.Partisans and political wonks can lose themselves within their party battles and forget the voters who ultimately choose the winners and losers during election time. On average, only about 3% of Canadians hold memberships in political parties. People in general aren’t married to a party brand as much as players within parties think they are. Voters will swing away from established parties without hesitation if they feel slighted, particularly in provincial politics.Those of us active in the parties spent months fighting with each other without really getting a gauge on what the average person on the street thought. We barely paid attention to the NDP which was sitting outside of the fray and garnering support through a campaign of positive messaging. Our hubris cost the province immeasurably as the NDP government held power for four long years.Albertans just wanted a better government. They were tired of watching the conservative parties duking it out and told both parties to stuff it when election day came.Now as I see events unfolding in B.C. politics, I am getting a strong sense of déjà vu.A general election is two months away and two conservative parties are battling each other while the NDP is smiling. Voters in B.C. appear ready to change governments as the NDP has fallen to 36% support in the polls. While B.C. United holds official opposition status with 23 seats, they are poised to lose them all as polled support has plummeted to 12%. The Conservative Party of B.C. is currently holding a narrow lead with 39% in the polls though they only hold a handful of seats. In a first-past-the-post system, this makes the election too close to call. Popular support doesn’t always translate to seats and the incumbent NDP are still very much in play to win another majority government this fall.B.C. United and the Conservative Party of B.C. are at each other’s throats. The dirty tricks are coming out as attack websites surface and the language is becoming toxic as candidates try to tear each other down. Things are only going to become more heated as the election nears.Support for B.C. United won’t recover, but they can maintain enough votes to ensure an NDP win. That infuriates supporters of the Conservative Party of B.C. but they must restrain themselves and think strategically. The temptation to focus attacks on B.C. United is doubtless a strong one, but it must be resisted.Non-partisan voters will be asking themselves who they want to be governed by. While they may be tired of the NDP, they won’t be endeared by a pair of conservative parties howling and fighting as if they are children in a sandbox fighting over a toy.The Conservative Party of B.C. is poised to win this fall’s election but that support can be fickle and it can evaporate quickly. Leader John Rustad and his campaign team need to offer positivity and convince voters they will manage the province responsibly. That won’t happen if they spend the next two months scrapping with B.C. United. They need to shrug off the other conservative option and stick to telling voters they will make B.C. a better place. B.C. United will wither and die on the vine all by itself if left alone and many of its remaining few supporters will shift their votes to the Conservative Party.B.C. is overdue for some good, conservative governance. The chance to get that government this October is very real. The conservatives of B.C. must rally around one party though and stop fighting with each other. It would be tragic to see B.C. repeat the mistake Alberta’s conservatives made so recently.
A partisan civil war among Alberta conservatives broke out in 2008. Progressive Conservatives (PCs) had been in power since 1971 and a new, upstart conservative movement called the Wildrose Party was threatening its reign. The battles were vicious as each party accused the other of everything under the sun from extremism to corruption. The political intrigue was fascinating as MPs crossed the floor in both directions while infighting plagued both parties.Then, in 2015 the unthinkable happened. While Alberta’s top two conservative parties battled each other, the NDP under Rachel Notley slid up the middle and won a majority government. The province considered to be the most conservative in Canada had just put socialists in power.I was managing a campaign for one of the Wildrose candidates in that election. Our sights were set on the PCs and we campaigned relentlessly against them. While we were crippled by the mass floor-crossing led by Wildrose Party Leader Danielle Smith months before, we still managed a strong campaign and were confident we would win a strong opposition role if not a minority government. The voters didn’t agree.On election night in our campaign headquarters, we were prepared to pop the champagne corks for our local candidate, if not for the party itself. We were in shock as the numbers rolled in. The PCs were decimated as they dropped from 70 seats to nine in the legislature. The Wildrose Party gained ground and won 21 seats but was nearly shut out of the cities. The NDP with only 41% popular support went from four seats to 50 and became government. A pall quickly descended up the headquarters where our candidate had become a casualty, while a small core of us remained to drink away the evening and try to figure out what the hell had just happened.Partisans and political wonks can lose themselves within their party battles and forget the voters who ultimately choose the winners and losers during election time. On average, only about 3% of Canadians hold memberships in political parties. People in general aren’t married to a party brand as much as players within parties think they are. Voters will swing away from established parties without hesitation if they feel slighted, particularly in provincial politics.Those of us active in the parties spent months fighting with each other without really getting a gauge on what the average person on the street thought. We barely paid attention to the NDP which was sitting outside of the fray and garnering support through a campaign of positive messaging. Our hubris cost the province immeasurably as the NDP government held power for four long years.Albertans just wanted a better government. They were tired of watching the conservative parties duking it out and told both parties to stuff it when election day came.Now as I see events unfolding in B.C. politics, I am getting a strong sense of déjà vu.A general election is two months away and two conservative parties are battling each other while the NDP is smiling. Voters in B.C. appear ready to change governments as the NDP has fallen to 36% support in the polls. While B.C. United holds official opposition status with 23 seats, they are poised to lose them all as polled support has plummeted to 12%. The Conservative Party of B.C. is currently holding a narrow lead with 39% in the polls though they only hold a handful of seats. In a first-past-the-post system, this makes the election too close to call. Popular support doesn’t always translate to seats and the incumbent NDP are still very much in play to win another majority government this fall.B.C. United and the Conservative Party of B.C. are at each other’s throats. The dirty tricks are coming out as attack websites surface and the language is becoming toxic as candidates try to tear each other down. Things are only going to become more heated as the election nears.Support for B.C. United won’t recover, but they can maintain enough votes to ensure an NDP win. That infuriates supporters of the Conservative Party of B.C. but they must restrain themselves and think strategically. The temptation to focus attacks on B.C. United is doubtless a strong one, but it must be resisted.Non-partisan voters will be asking themselves who they want to be governed by. While they may be tired of the NDP, they won’t be endeared by a pair of conservative parties howling and fighting as if they are children in a sandbox fighting over a toy.The Conservative Party of B.C. is poised to win this fall’s election but that support can be fickle and it can evaporate quickly. Leader John Rustad and his campaign team need to offer positivity and convince voters they will manage the province responsibly. That won’t happen if they spend the next two months scrapping with B.C. United. They need to shrug off the other conservative option and stick to telling voters they will make B.C. a better place. B.C. United will wither and die on the vine all by itself if left alone and many of its remaining few supporters will shift their votes to the Conservative Party.B.C. is overdue for some good, conservative governance. The chance to get that government this October is very real. The conservatives of B.C. must rally around one party though and stop fighting with each other. It would be tragic to see B.C. repeat the mistake Alberta’s conservatives made so recently.
