MARRIOTT: Three weeks to get a lot of things right

William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.It’s officially election season. Who cares about Christmas? For us politicos this is the best-est season of all. By my count there are six big voting decisions in the next four weeks and they all take place within a short three week period from October 19th to November 5th. If you want some shorthand insight into what will likely happen and what is driving it, then read on. This is the first of some weekly instalments on these contests and will focus on some necessary context.It is hard to ignore all the recent political changes in western-style democracies and not draw some conclusions about what might happen in the next few weeks in Canada and the United States.Immigration in Europe is taking a beating with regular voters who want to slow it down or even reverse it via deportation. Hard core climate alarmist policies are being reversed as consumers are balking at the costs. The culture war against wokism has graduated from peaceful complaining to higher levels and regular ‘Martha and Henry’ voters aren’t afraid to stand up and be counted. And of course there are a couple of situations that could evolve into World War III if the U.S. doesn’t step up with some adult solutions. All of these things will affect the imminent voting in Canada and America.Recent world wide elections may be a foretelling or forestalling of things to come. The 2021 federal election in Canada really ended up being a story about Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada. They managed to bleed enough votes from Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives to give a minority to Justin Trudeau. But with a marriage to the even left-er NDP, Trudeau continued his disastrous policies. So we now have a situation which now looks to be an inevitable super-majority for Pierre Poilievre.(It was a bit like how Nigel Farage took enough votes from the Conservatives in Great Britain to give Labour a final chance to drive the Brits over a cliff. However, it likely means Labour will never be a force in British politics again.)In France, blatant co-habiting between Emmanuel Macron and the even further left will again give fuel to Marine Le Pen to rise from the ashes. Simply name-calling these and other changes far-far-right will not be enough to deny the democratic decisions of the electorate. Who knew that democracy could work out if you bother to vote?Despite constant fear mongering by the Main Stream Media (‘MSM’) over imminent death by warm weather, the climate alarmism mantra is losing steam. The Climate/Environmental issue has seen a secular decline in importance in the public mind. This has been underscored by the excessive carbon (dioxide) taxes in Canada which no one believes will actually lower temperatures. Voters have been consistent in expressing worry about the climate while also being adamant they don’t want to pay to fix it. In the broader Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries there has been little support for these type of taxes as highlighted by Jack Mintz way back in 2022. Remember in the U.S. not even the Democrats have been so unwise as to propose a CO2 tax. In Canada, even B.C.’s NDP has abandoned Canada’s first ever consumer CO2 tax in an attempt to woo voters back from the B.C. Conservative party. Looks like Canada, and even BC, are finally catching up with the rest of the world.In case you hadn’t noticed there is a culture war going on around you. For many people, the endless exposure to the ever expanding multitude of sexual identities and forms of sexual expression has simply become tiresome and boring. ut for a few it is serious enough to organize and make their views known. The most recent resistance comes from a odd alliance of Christians and Muslims, the One Million March 4 Children. The issues are what is being taught to our children inside our schools. These folks are prepared to take to the streets based on what their children are reporting to them. They seemed to have struck a chord given the reaction of teacher unions. The question is whether that will translate to the ballot box.Finally, we can’t ignore the big wars going on in the world and where they may ultimately end up. In the Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky can’t be propped-up indefinitely by the US taxpayer and eventually he may have to actually face an election. This will certainly happen sooner with the election of Trump but will also happen with Harris as Americans get sick of financing this proxy war against Putin.On the Middle East front, the current situation was created solely by Biden’s policies towards Iran.But Israel is more than up to the fight particularly with American support. What is needed is a regime change in Tehran and Saudi Arabia has stepped up to ensure world oil supplies should Israel take the war to Iran’s oil fields. In Canada, Trudeau’s waffling on this file has made us a laughing stock along with the United Nations. Moral clarity is required from our government.But the question is how do all these issues affect the ballot box in our upcoming votes?First up is the BC provincial election on October 19. The stunning reversal of the NDP’s fortunes is no aberration. Even now, two weeks ahead of the voting, the popular vote has decidedly gone to John Rustad’s B.C Conservative Party. He is even promising to bring back plastic straws!.Late last week election modeller Philippe Fournier of 338canada.com gave him a victory. But the trend lines were clear well before then. This will be a colossal first win for the right and a foretelling that other jurisdictions will follow course. Rustad checked all the major boxes — carbon tax, housing, addictions policy, energy independence and dumping EV mandates. But the big one is providing for “economic reconciliation” on the First Nations file. This is especially important for B.C. First nations as they are looking for more than land acknowledgements and hand outs.Second we have New Brunswick on October 21. Here we have a veteran Conservative leader in Blaine Higgs whose outlook and policies are coming back into favour. He joined Alberta’s Danielle Smith in the protection of minors from themselves and others in making life altering surgical decisions. Not surprisingly, Justin Trudeau spoke out against these protections which actually reinforced the Higgs/Smith case.The provincial Liberal opposition to Higgs faces an uphill battle as they will be painted with the broader Liberal disaffection at the federal level. This may not seem fair but the pragmatic Liberal traditions of Chrétien and Martin have long since been abandoned for woke posturing. Fournier has them behind on votes but with enough seats to win a victory. Again the trend as of today should deliver even more seats in two weeks time.Stay tuned for next week’s summary and predictions.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.

MARRIOTT: Three weeks to get a lot of things right

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