MARRIOTT: Supply goes, confidence survives, Legault hands Trudeau his bill

William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.The Conservatives didn’t win the recent Winnipeg by-election but despite getting the most votes the NDP didn’t win either. All of the parties including the People’s Party lost support to the Conservatives. The NDP lost nearly 2 percentage points but the Conservatives added 16. This is incredible when you think that Manitoba is still in the honeymoon period over the recent election of First Nations/NDP Premier Wab Kinew.While Jagmeet Singh saw a great victory, these results will only get worse next time. He 'ripped up' the infamous Supply and Confidence agreement, well, at least part of it. (The Supply part is gone but it appears that the Confidence part has survived.) He went from being in bed with the Liberals to voting with the separatist Bloc Québécois. Not a good look, even for die-hard supporters.You have to feel for Singh as he was, operationally, the first NDP Prime Minister of Canada. Unfortunately, his government turned out to be the worst that Canadians have ever seen. In the 2019 election he managed to lose half is caucus but was somehow still hailed as a great hero. His party agreed and kept him on for the 2021 snap election but he only managed to win one more seat.The current prospects for Singh do not look good. The British Columbia provincial election in a few weeks is shaping up to be a Conservative victory. And the fallout from this shocker will spill over to the federal election. It is possible that he may even lose his seat. No wonder he is challenging random protesters and MP’s to fist fights.But his travails have become glee for the Bloc. They have made their initial demands and even given a deadline of October 29 for Liberal capitulation. October 29th ? Really? Halloween — Trick or Treat might have been more appropriate. The only problem for the Bloc is the government will not fall unless the NDP changes their tune and agree to “take orders from the Conservatives” rather than the Liberals. Again not a good look for Singh. But he would do it in a minute if only to save his own neck and salvage something for the NDP. But he will never get his chance.That is because the Liberals will bow to the Bloc’s two first demands and probably more in the new year.The first demand is to support the ‘supply management’ deal for agricultural products. You remember this one. It’s where staple foodstuffs are over-priced to protect a bloated and non-competitive agricultural sector, mostly in Quebec. What’s sad about this program is that it impacts the poor the most. It is what is called a regressive policy. The lower your income the harder this program hits you. But it is a Quebec favourite and the Liberals will support it.But wait a minute? This policy already cleared the House of Commons and is now wandering around the black hole called the Canadian Senate. Wait! What? You remember the Canadian Senate, that body of “sober second thought blah, blah, blah”. And under the Liberals, although the Prime Minister personally appoints the Senators, they are somehow now mysteriously ‘independent’. Surprisingly, they have been consistent in their independent support of Liberal policy.Stephen Harper, at the end of his term, refused to appoint any new senators leaving about a quarter of the seats empty. His reasoning was that he would not validate a legislative body that badly needed reform.Sadly, Justin Trudeau took full advantage of Harper’s folly and appointed independent Liberals to every vacancy. As a result by the 2025 election Trudeau will have appointed around 90 of the 105 senators. This is not a typo. Sunny days will continue long after Trudeau is gone.So the Bloc’s demand is probably unnecessary but should still outrage Canadians. They aren’t merely demanding support from the Liberal Senate, they are telling Trudeau to hurry-up and whip his puppets...now. And he can do that easily with a few phone calls. What is odd is that nobody seems to be concerned for this dismal state of our democratic institutions. Rather, it’s just Canadian business as usual.The other Bloc demand is to jack up the Old Age Security payments for boomers. Some say the Liberals should not acquiesce because it would be bad policy for Canada. I wonder where these people have been for the last nine years. Of course Liberal policy has been bad for Canada. But why should they stop now?The latest objection on this is that it is somehow contrary to the current Liberal direction on taxation. Having lost any room to tax property, income and consumption, they now want to tax established wealth. And it is the boomer demographic that has most of the wealth. But this shouldn’t pose a problem for the Liberals as several exemptions can be crafted so that the burden of the tax does not fall in Quebec. Horrors you say! Remember the carbon dioxide tax carve out for the Maritimes. Once this is change is in place it will be impossible to roll back.The only silver lining in all of this brouhaha should be a further awakening in the West to the incredible bad deal Confederation is if you don’t live in the Laurentians.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.

MARRIOTT: Supply goes, confidence survives, Legault hands Trudeau his bill

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