William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry. Six elections in three weeks — Part 4 in a series. See Part 3, here. The first two big elections of this season gave a minority victory to the NDP in British Columbia and a resounding victory to the Liberals in New Brunswick. These elections had a number of similarities and some important differences. We need to take note of these as we look forward to the other elections due in the next two weeks.Both elections had high advanced polling interest. This by itself doesn’t seem to indicate anything other than this is a more convenient way to vote. Given the torrential rain on election day, those who availed themselves of it may congratulate themselves.In BC, the voter turnout was way up to more than 57% while in NB the turnout stayed steady at an already high of 66%. In both elections the environmental focused Greens lost ground, with the NB party dropping one seat and the BC vote falling more than 40%. In BC, this 175,000 shortfall did not end up with the NDP, however. The party's vote increased by only 10,000. Instead, these formerly Green voters found a home with the Conservatives, whose nearly 44% support eclipsed the meagre 34% for the Liberals in 2020. In NB, Premier Blaine Higgs lost his seat. .Both of these elections were ‘change’ elections perhaps reflecting voters negative attitudes towards incumbent politicians in general. This sentiment should be a wake-up to politicians in the next big contests.Both these elections continued the rural-conservative split with the cities being more left leaning. This was complicated even more by the French/English divide in NB where francophone voters supported the Liberals.But when we look beyond the big headlines it is the stories of the provincial Liberal parties and provincial Liberal politicians that are most significant.There is much speculation and concern that the current state of federal politics could have a spill over effect in provincial elections. But the naming of the centre left parties whether NDP, Liberal or other, seems less important than their policies. Provincial political parties have their own histories and a legacies which brings some inertia, either beneficial or not. Thus the name is less important as parties try to re-brand themselves with their own particular identity.This is especially true in BC where the Liberal party has traditionally been centre-right as the alternative to the more left NDP. Thus the emergence and relative strength of John Rustad’s Conservatives created a bit of an identity crisis for the BC Liberals. Kevin Falcon the leader of the BC Liberals/United wisely saw that the new centre-right had been rebranded into Rustad’s Conservatives. He managed to withdraw the United from the ballot and his candidates were free to seek new political alignment. Some (32) withdrew from the election, some (9) managed to get a Conservative nomination and some (16) ran as independents against the Conservatives.It is this latter group that made the difference in the election. Fourteen of them lost to Conservatives and they had no effect on the outcome. However, in two ridings Richmond-Steveston, and Vernon-Lumby they took enough votes from the Conservatives to give the seat to the NDP. Without these vanity projects the Conservatives would have had a majority. It is unlikely that the recount in a few close ridings and the uncounted (49K) absentee and mail-in ballots will change the outcome.The other factor in BC was the Conservative support by immigrant communities. This shouldn’t be underestimated as a viable and consistent voter block in the future. It is hardly surprising as most of these people are younger and have young families who have direct interface with government through the school system. That traditional immigrant values are conservative values is hardly surprising but the degree of organization to make a political impact cannot be ignored.The overall result has to be considered an unqualified success by Rustad. It may even get better as time goes on and Eby’s government is propped up by the Greens. In the next election voters may have no time for centre-left governments dancing with the even less supported green zealots.Looking a NB, it was not even close. The Liberals ran a better campaign and troubles within the Conservative party and its leadership manifested themselves in a weak ground game before and on election day. It looks like every politician has a best-before-date (even Stephen Harper and surely Justin Trudeau) and the trick is to realize when it has come (like Jason Kenney). However, Higgs’ fiscal playbook will be top of mind as Susan Holt tries her hand at actually governing. She may well be just the most recent reincarnation of centre-right under a new brand. If not, she may be facing another change election in four years.Higgs’ loss also underscores that parental rights issues around transgenderism may not be the winner that conservatives hope it would be. Despite the recent brouhaha about biological boys using a girls changing room in a school in Balgonie, a small town east of Regina, the issue may not get the traction that Scott Moe hopes..Which brings us to the next big election in SK on October 28. NDP leader Carla Beck is also pitching change and Scott Moe has been leading his Saskatchewan Party government for 6 years. His continuous support of provincial rights against encroachments by the federal government makes the political dynamic a bit different in this province. And in this case the negative vibe around the federal NDP cannot help but disadvantage the provincial NDP at the polls.Speaking of polling data there has been little but a recent survey indicated that momentum is on the side of the NDP. When Philippe Fournier ran this thru his election simulator it only added one seat for the NDP. His last projection was Saskatchewan Party 39 seats and NDP 22. I don’t expect any big upset in Saskatchewan.As to the Bloc Quebecois deadline of October 29th, it will come and go but the shenanigans in Ottawa will continue. The complete dysfunction of the House of Commons is causing many Canadians to despair in their government. My suggestion is to stop reading anything coming out of Ottawa before the new year and look for an election call after the Liberals propose a budget in March. Justin Trudeau is going nowhere and will likely lead the Liberals in a spring election which will likely be the biggest change election Canadians have ever seen.Next week we will review the Saskatchewan election results and look at the upcoming Danielle Smith leadership vote and give some final thoughts on the US election.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry. Six elections in three weeks — Part 4 in a series. See Part 3, here. The first two big elections of this season gave a minority victory to the NDP in British Columbia and a resounding victory to the Liberals in New Brunswick. These elections had a number of similarities and some important differences. We need to take note of these as we look forward to the other elections due in the next two weeks.Both elections had high advanced polling interest. This by itself doesn’t seem to indicate anything other than this is a more convenient way to vote. Given the torrential rain on election day, those who availed themselves of it may congratulate themselves.In BC, the voter turnout was way up to more than 57% while in NB the turnout stayed steady at an already high of 66%. In both elections the environmental focused Greens lost ground, with the NB party dropping one seat and the BC vote falling more than 40%. In BC, this 175,000 shortfall did not end up with the NDP, however. The party's vote increased by only 10,000. Instead, these formerly Green voters found a home with the Conservatives, whose nearly 44% support eclipsed the meagre 34% for the Liberals in 2020. In NB, Premier Blaine Higgs lost his seat. .Both of these elections were ‘change’ elections perhaps reflecting voters negative attitudes towards incumbent politicians in general. This sentiment should be a wake-up to politicians in the next big contests.Both these elections continued the rural-conservative split with the cities being more left leaning. This was complicated even more by the French/English divide in NB where francophone voters supported the Liberals.But when we look beyond the big headlines it is the stories of the provincial Liberal parties and provincial Liberal politicians that are most significant.There is much speculation and concern that the current state of federal politics could have a spill over effect in provincial elections. But the naming of the centre left parties whether NDP, Liberal or other, seems less important than their policies. Provincial political parties have their own histories and a legacies which brings some inertia, either beneficial or not. Thus the name is less important as parties try to re-brand themselves with their own particular identity.This is especially true in BC where the Liberal party has traditionally been centre-right as the alternative to the more left NDP. Thus the emergence and relative strength of John Rustad’s Conservatives created a bit of an identity crisis for the BC Liberals. Kevin Falcon the leader of the BC Liberals/United wisely saw that the new centre-right had been rebranded into Rustad’s Conservatives. He managed to withdraw the United from the ballot and his candidates were free to seek new political alignment. Some (32) withdrew from the election, some (9) managed to get a Conservative nomination and some (16) ran as independents against the Conservatives.It is this latter group that made the difference in the election. Fourteen of them lost to Conservatives and they had no effect on the outcome. However, in two ridings Richmond-Steveston, and Vernon-Lumby they took enough votes from the Conservatives to give the seat to the NDP. Without these vanity projects the Conservatives would have had a majority. It is unlikely that the recount in a few close ridings and the uncounted (49K) absentee and mail-in ballots will change the outcome.The other factor in BC was the Conservative support by immigrant communities. This shouldn’t be underestimated as a viable and consistent voter block in the future. It is hardly surprising as most of these people are younger and have young families who have direct interface with government through the school system. That traditional immigrant values are conservative values is hardly surprising but the degree of organization to make a political impact cannot be ignored.The overall result has to be considered an unqualified success by Rustad. It may even get better as time goes on and Eby’s government is propped up by the Greens. In the next election voters may have no time for centre-left governments dancing with the even less supported green zealots.Looking a NB, it was not even close. The Liberals ran a better campaign and troubles within the Conservative party and its leadership manifested themselves in a weak ground game before and on election day. It looks like every politician has a best-before-date (even Stephen Harper and surely Justin Trudeau) and the trick is to realize when it has come (like Jason Kenney). However, Higgs’ fiscal playbook will be top of mind as Susan Holt tries her hand at actually governing. She may well be just the most recent reincarnation of centre-right under a new brand. If not, she may be facing another change election in four years.Higgs’ loss also underscores that parental rights issues around transgenderism may not be the winner that conservatives hope it would be. Despite the recent brouhaha about biological boys using a girls changing room in a school in Balgonie, a small town east of Regina, the issue may not get the traction that Scott Moe hopes..Which brings us to the next big election in SK on October 28. NDP leader Carla Beck is also pitching change and Scott Moe has been leading his Saskatchewan Party government for 6 years. His continuous support of provincial rights against encroachments by the federal government makes the political dynamic a bit different in this province. And in this case the negative vibe around the federal NDP cannot help but disadvantage the provincial NDP at the polls.Speaking of polling data there has been little but a recent survey indicated that momentum is on the side of the NDP. When Philippe Fournier ran this thru his election simulator it only added one seat for the NDP. His last projection was Saskatchewan Party 39 seats and NDP 22. I don’t expect any big upset in Saskatchewan.As to the Bloc Quebecois deadline of October 29th, it will come and go but the shenanigans in Ottawa will continue. The complete dysfunction of the House of Commons is causing many Canadians to despair in their government. My suggestion is to stop reading anything coming out of Ottawa before the new year and look for an election call after the Liberals propose a budget in March. Justin Trudeau is going nowhere and will likely lead the Liberals in a spring election which will likely be the biggest change election Canadians have ever seen.Next week we will review the Saskatchewan election results and look at the upcoming Danielle Smith leadership vote and give some final thoughts on the US election.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
