The coronation of Naheed Nenshi as prince of the NDP will take place tomorrow. I predict a landslide on the first ballot. But his almost certain ascension to king of Alberta will have to wait another three and a half years.It is generally foolhardy to be predicting politics three weeks out let alone three years. But all the signs are indicating that Nenshi will give new life to the NDP and will likely win the next provincial election. Here is what he and the NDP are seeing.Albertans, except for those outside the large cities are not particularly conservative. The current mayors and councils of Calgary and Edmonton actually reflect the underlying political preferences of those cities. Remember, conservative Jeromy Farkas was leading in Calgary’s last mayor’s race, at least up until the actual campaign started. As Chris Nelson recently pointed out, if you think Mayor Gondek is ‘one and done’ you may be disappointed.Remember also the provincial voting record in Edmonton and Calgary. Edmonton is solidly NDP and even if Tucker Carlson or Donald Trump was NDP leader, this is not going to change. A year ago Calgary was 1,600 votes short of electing Rachel Notley as premier. Nenshi can certainly squeeze 1600 more net votes from Calgarians. His popularity was declining during his second term but not enough to defeat a candidate no one had heard of and had no platform. And his declining poll numbers in his third term didn’t prevent Nenshi 2.0 (i.e. Gondek) from getting elected.Which brings us to the second rule in Canadian elections: leaders and their parties have a fixed shelf life. Stephen Harper didn’t lose to Justin Trudeau because of his bad governance or bad policies. It was said in the 2015 election that Trudeau’s best feature, after his hair and socks, was that he wasn’t Stephen Harper. Jason Kenney was a competent and popular leader. However, after COVID he knew that he could not win the next election so he stepped down to avoid becoming a lightning rod to divide UCP supporters.This “best before” rule is even more accentuated in Alberta conservative circles. Danielle Smith will be facing a leadership vote even though she won the election. Rachel Notley didn’t have to face one after losing once but after two losses it would have happened. Smith will most certainly survive the review, but anything less than 90% support will be deemed to be a failure. Just wait for the headlines.Which brings us to the third rule facing incumbent conservative politicians: every bit of media reporting will be negative. Nenshi will be given a pass from hard questions or inquiries into his sometimes angry past. Everything will be “sunny days”, sunshine and unicorns because remember ... purple doesn’t clash with orange.Smith on other hand will face nothing but criticism for everything, even those things that are hugely popular — like banning any possibility of future life-altering gender reassignment surgery for children. Every blip in the polls will be interpreted as proof of Nenshi’s holiness and a prediction of an eventual NDP victory. If you have any doubt about this, just check your perceptions of the current Kaycee Madu witch hunt versus the facts. You no doubt believe that Madu tried to get a traffic ticket ‘fixed’ by calling the chief of Edmonton’s police. However, the traffic ticket was never discussed nor did Madu at anytime ask for ticket to be dropped, not even with the issuing officer. He was however legitimately concerned about Edmonton’s ‘carding’ policy or perhaps even the possibility that he had been personally targeted for embarrassment through the traffic stop. While you expect this from the CBC, Smith will not get balanced reporting from Post Media or Global either.Nenshi will pick up where the NDP strategy of ‘going negative’ left off in the last election. While endlessly vilifying your opponent didn’t really work for Notley, Nenshi will continue to denigrate Smith to the delight of a hostile press. The sheer volume of the attacks on her and the UCP will wear away at Smith’s popularity.Nenshi’s first order of official business is to be elected in a safe NE Calgary seat vacated by a willing but underperforming NDP incumbent. Only a couple of ridings will do, so as to ensure a landslide pointing to his divine right to be king. Given his extensive residual support there and ethnic voting patterns he will get his wish. He will not run in Shannon Phillips’ Lethbridge riding. These folks are not really hard core NDP supporters but rather have been voting her personal popularity over her party affiliation. Look for the UCP to make that by-election a real fight.His next order of business will be to get rid of the ‘NDP’ moniker because the old school brand of socialism is so passé compared to his new personal brand of ‘purple progressivism’. The connection between the provincial NDP and their federal masters and by extension their support of the federal Liberals is costing the NDP votes in Alberta. He will want to rebrand the party away from any residual NDP negativity. Look for the new and improved Alberta for All of Us (but mostly for me Naheed) Party. Finally, he will lose some weight. His personal image consultants will advise it and he will oblige. Jason Kenney did it and although one NDP leadership candidate tried to make obesity a virtue, slim and trim will sell a lot better.In short, Danielle Smith will have her work cut out for her but should never be underestimated. At the same time, is she finished unveiling the more unpopular and controversial parts of her doctrine for Alberta? When you lose Lorne Gunter it is like Justin Trudeau losing the Globe & Mail or Joe Biden losing CNN. It may be time to listen.In any event look forward to lots of fireworks even beyond Canada Day and the Stampede. William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
The coronation of Naheed Nenshi as prince of the NDP will take place tomorrow. I predict a landslide on the first ballot. But his almost certain ascension to king of Alberta will have to wait another three and a half years.It is generally foolhardy to be predicting politics three weeks out let alone three years. But all the signs are indicating that Nenshi will give new life to the NDP and will likely win the next provincial election. Here is what he and the NDP are seeing.Albertans, except for those outside the large cities are not particularly conservative. The current mayors and councils of Calgary and Edmonton actually reflect the underlying political preferences of those cities. Remember, conservative Jeromy Farkas was leading in Calgary’s last mayor’s race, at least up until the actual campaign started. As Chris Nelson recently pointed out, if you think Mayor Gondek is ‘one and done’ you may be disappointed.Remember also the provincial voting record in Edmonton and Calgary. Edmonton is solidly NDP and even if Tucker Carlson or Donald Trump was NDP leader, this is not going to change. A year ago Calgary was 1,600 votes short of electing Rachel Notley as premier. Nenshi can certainly squeeze 1600 more net votes from Calgarians. His popularity was declining during his second term but not enough to defeat a candidate no one had heard of and had no platform. And his declining poll numbers in his third term didn’t prevent Nenshi 2.0 (i.e. Gondek) from getting elected.Which brings us to the second rule in Canadian elections: leaders and their parties have a fixed shelf life. Stephen Harper didn’t lose to Justin Trudeau because of his bad governance or bad policies. It was said in the 2015 election that Trudeau’s best feature, after his hair and socks, was that he wasn’t Stephen Harper. Jason Kenney was a competent and popular leader. However, after COVID he knew that he could not win the next election so he stepped down to avoid becoming a lightning rod to divide UCP supporters.This “best before” rule is even more accentuated in Alberta conservative circles. Danielle Smith will be facing a leadership vote even though she won the election. Rachel Notley didn’t have to face one after losing once but after two losses it would have happened. Smith will most certainly survive the review, but anything less than 90% support will be deemed to be a failure. Just wait for the headlines.Which brings us to the third rule facing incumbent conservative politicians: every bit of media reporting will be negative. Nenshi will be given a pass from hard questions or inquiries into his sometimes angry past. Everything will be “sunny days”, sunshine and unicorns because remember ... purple doesn’t clash with orange.Smith on other hand will face nothing but criticism for everything, even those things that are hugely popular — like banning any possibility of future life-altering gender reassignment surgery for children. Every blip in the polls will be interpreted as proof of Nenshi’s holiness and a prediction of an eventual NDP victory. If you have any doubt about this, just check your perceptions of the current Kaycee Madu witch hunt versus the facts. You no doubt believe that Madu tried to get a traffic ticket ‘fixed’ by calling the chief of Edmonton’s police. However, the traffic ticket was never discussed nor did Madu at anytime ask for ticket to be dropped, not even with the issuing officer. He was however legitimately concerned about Edmonton’s ‘carding’ policy or perhaps even the possibility that he had been personally targeted for embarrassment through the traffic stop. While you expect this from the CBC, Smith will not get balanced reporting from Post Media or Global either.Nenshi will pick up where the NDP strategy of ‘going negative’ left off in the last election. While endlessly vilifying your opponent didn’t really work for Notley, Nenshi will continue to denigrate Smith to the delight of a hostile press. The sheer volume of the attacks on her and the UCP will wear away at Smith’s popularity.Nenshi’s first order of official business is to be elected in a safe NE Calgary seat vacated by a willing but underperforming NDP incumbent. Only a couple of ridings will do, so as to ensure a landslide pointing to his divine right to be king. Given his extensive residual support there and ethnic voting patterns he will get his wish. He will not run in Shannon Phillips’ Lethbridge riding. These folks are not really hard core NDP supporters but rather have been voting her personal popularity over her party affiliation. Look for the UCP to make that by-election a real fight.His next order of business will be to get rid of the ‘NDP’ moniker because the old school brand of socialism is so passé compared to his new personal brand of ‘purple progressivism’. The connection between the provincial NDP and their federal masters and by extension their support of the federal Liberals is costing the NDP votes in Alberta. He will want to rebrand the party away from any residual NDP negativity. Look for the new and improved Alberta for All of Us (but mostly for me Naheed) Party. Finally, he will lose some weight. His personal image consultants will advise it and he will oblige. Jason Kenney did it and although one NDP leadership candidate tried to make obesity a virtue, slim and trim will sell a lot better.In short, Danielle Smith will have her work cut out for her but should never be underestimated. At the same time, is she finished unveiling the more unpopular and controversial parts of her doctrine for Alberta? When you lose Lorne Gunter it is like Justin Trudeau losing the Globe & Mail or Joe Biden losing CNN. It may be time to listen.In any event look forward to lots of fireworks even beyond Canada Day and the Stampede. William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
