William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industryWe in Western liberal democracies rightly believe that our societies are the best of all possible alternatives for ruling the human condition. Thus Barack Obama’s oft-used phrase “the right side of history.” When we get it wrong either on economic policy — the Great Depression comes to mind — or social policies such as the eugenics movement, we have the mechanisms to correct our errors.However, it is not clear where history will place Diversity, Equity and Inclusion. .MARRIOTT: Three weeks to get a lot of things right.And Part Two here..MARRIOTT: Higgs and Rustad on a roll, Smith to get comfortable passing grade.Karl Marx’s standard for a just economic society “from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs” sounds a lot like Canada today. But the new left seems have re-written it as “from each according to his/her/? ability, to each according to his/her/? special group.” The ultimate weakness in this vision is all the people who are somehow left out of the favoured groups and yet are still able to visit the polling booth.Justin Trudeau recently lamented that there seems to be a “backlash against progressive policies, and that despite pressure, he is staying on as leader to ensure continued focus on such issues as diversity and climate change”.Will the true believers support him and these ideas, or will BC be the first domino to fall in the demise of “Canada’s political woke-ism?”Even the Toronto Star weighed in on the BC election calling the conservatives a “fringe party packed with conspiracy theorists.” When the Star starts wailing you know you are on the right track.The BC polls are almost no help. Even polling guru Eric Grenier can’t discern a clear winner when there is a 10 percentage point polling spread between the two parties. As in Alberta, there are regional differences between the conservative rural voters and the left in Vancouver and the far-left on Vancouver Island.The problem is that there is nowhere for the green voters to go.David Eby’s NDP has backed off their signature climate tax policy and reversed on so many policies that they look at lot like John Rustad’s Conservatives. The ballot question maybe: who can actually deliver on similar policies, the party that abandoned their beliefs in the face of abject failure or the party who would have never introduced the poor policies in the first place.If the Green Party support (recently as high as 14%) continues to grow, then vote splitting could deliver more seats to Rustad. If the Greens vote strategically to keep Rustad out and conservative voters get cold feet about a perceived big change in Rustad, then the NDP may eke out a victory. Philippe Fournier has consistently predicted an NDP majority but only by a few seats. Advanced polling has been up significantly at nearly 30% of eligible voters.Does anybody in Vancouver read the National Post? Just yesterday, three stories should resonate with voters going to the polls on Saturday. Guess how to fix homelessness, terrorists in Vancouver, and plastic straw absurdities? Vote conservative.I believe Pierre Poilievre’s ‘common sense’ revolution merely reflects what voters are thinking and is not just a national phenomena. It will also find expression in regional contests. I look for a slim majority for Rustad’s Conservatives. Next week we will do a post mortem on the results.In New Brunswick a very quiet campaign is winding down and advanced polling is way up. Fournier has it as a tossup with the Green Party spoiling a majority for either party. I look for Blaine Hicks to maintain his majority on Monday.This brings us to the ‘bigly’ biggest of all big ones, the US presidential election as the main event with votes for Congress and the Senate as an undercard. US presidential elections seems to go on forever with primaries, the Electoral College, main party voters and independents, and the ever important seven swing states.To complicate matters further we had Robert F. Kennedy Jr. first running as an independent after being rejected by the Democrats and then endorsing Donald Trump.The Democrats scored a touchdown on the proverbial Hail Mary pass by crowning, rather than electing, Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate.However, the energy this gave the Democrats was due to a negative, the fact that she wasn’t Joe Biden, rather than a positive about the woman herself. When this boost could not be sustained by her refusal to appear in public, the Democrats threw another Hail Mary by letting speak on her own behalf. This Hail Mary went incomplete and now the Republicans have the ball. Even endorsements by Taylor Swift and Vladimir Putin (he especially liked her laugh) could not keep her approval ratings up.Support levels for Trump himself have likely changed little. But J. D. Vance, Trump’s vice president running mate, has shown the longer-term way forward for the Republican party. After four years under a Trump presidency he will learn how to navigate the top. Look for him to name Tulsi Gabbard as his vice president running mate in 2028 and for her to become the first woman US president in 2036. (You heard it first here). Vance is the true game changer for the Republican ticket in this electionThe national poll aggregators continue to indicate a preference for Kamala Harris but this will not be enough to win the electoral college. The election modellers are also giving mixed results. The most recent numbers from Nate Silver has a 50/50 split of winning the electoral college, Fournier has Trump at 51%, while 538.com has 53% for Harris. The media are calling the election close but internal polls have Trump/Vance out in front, thus the Democrats desperate strategy change even putting Harris up against Fox News.It is not working, as is clear from the polling trends in the swing states. These states can go either way in the electoral college votes and so they are key predictors for the eventual winner. The current trend direction favours Trump in five of the seven states but we still have two and half weeks to go.The gamblers have given Trump the election as the October 17 betting has Trump at 62%.The other key wild card in this election is the ballot integrity in the swing states. When we went to bed in 2020, Trump was declared as leading in enough of these states to win the electoral college.However, when we woke up in the morning we found that ballots were still being counted, mysteriously, only in the swing states. Some would say coincidence. Some would say that in elections there are no coincidences. To adapt a phrase usually reserved for the severely paranoid, “Just because you are conspiracy theorist doesn’t mean the world is conspiracy free.’Dinesh D'Souza, who usually does not make stuff up, believes a credible case can be made for tipping the 2020 election. Although the not always unbiased Wikipedia editors have called his work a conspiracy theory the US Supreme court is also concerned about election integrity.That there were voting irregularities in 2020 is not in dispute. A popular meme stated “I was surprised to hear that grandpa voted Democrat. When he was alive he always voted Republican.” The only real question is whether the irregularities were significant enough to change the outcome of the election.After the fact this is likely impossible to prove one way or the other. What is certain this time around is that Republicans will be out in full force scrutinizing the ballot collection and counting process in the swing states. And the elections authorities should be that much more vigilant to ensure a clean process and thus a more accountable result.I boldly predict that the American voters, who generally take their democracy seriously, will show up and vote for Trump/Vance. I fear for the world if the Democratic machine that controlled Biden and will control Harris is allowed four more years of power. The rhetoric and constant attacks against Trump will continue for the next four years but at least the policies will be good and we might even have a few less wars.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industryWe in Western liberal democracies rightly believe that our societies are the best of all possible alternatives for ruling the human condition. Thus Barack Obama’s oft-used phrase “the right side of history.” When we get it wrong either on economic policy — the Great Depression comes to mind — or social policies such as the eugenics movement, we have the mechanisms to correct our errors.However, it is not clear where history will place Diversity, Equity and Inclusion. .MARRIOTT: Three weeks to get a lot of things right.And Part Two here..MARRIOTT: Higgs and Rustad on a roll, Smith to get comfortable passing grade.Karl Marx’s standard for a just economic society “from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs” sounds a lot like Canada today. But the new left seems have re-written it as “from each according to his/her/? ability, to each according to his/her/? special group.” The ultimate weakness in this vision is all the people who are somehow left out of the favoured groups and yet are still able to visit the polling booth.Justin Trudeau recently lamented that there seems to be a “backlash against progressive policies, and that despite pressure, he is staying on as leader to ensure continued focus on such issues as diversity and climate change”.Will the true believers support him and these ideas, or will BC be the first domino to fall in the demise of “Canada’s political woke-ism?”Even the Toronto Star weighed in on the BC election calling the conservatives a “fringe party packed with conspiracy theorists.” When the Star starts wailing you know you are on the right track.The BC polls are almost no help. Even polling guru Eric Grenier can’t discern a clear winner when there is a 10 percentage point polling spread between the two parties. As in Alberta, there are regional differences between the conservative rural voters and the left in Vancouver and the far-left on Vancouver Island.The problem is that there is nowhere for the green voters to go.David Eby’s NDP has backed off their signature climate tax policy and reversed on so many policies that they look at lot like John Rustad’s Conservatives. The ballot question maybe: who can actually deliver on similar policies, the party that abandoned their beliefs in the face of abject failure or the party who would have never introduced the poor policies in the first place.If the Green Party support (recently as high as 14%) continues to grow, then vote splitting could deliver more seats to Rustad. If the Greens vote strategically to keep Rustad out and conservative voters get cold feet about a perceived big change in Rustad, then the NDP may eke out a victory. Philippe Fournier has consistently predicted an NDP majority but only by a few seats. Advanced polling has been up significantly at nearly 30% of eligible voters.Does anybody in Vancouver read the National Post? Just yesterday, three stories should resonate with voters going to the polls on Saturday. Guess how to fix homelessness, terrorists in Vancouver, and plastic straw absurdities? Vote conservative.I believe Pierre Poilievre’s ‘common sense’ revolution merely reflects what voters are thinking and is not just a national phenomena. It will also find expression in regional contests. I look for a slim majority for Rustad’s Conservatives. Next week we will do a post mortem on the results.In New Brunswick a very quiet campaign is winding down and advanced polling is way up. Fournier has it as a tossup with the Green Party spoiling a majority for either party. I look for Blaine Hicks to maintain his majority on Monday.This brings us to the ‘bigly’ biggest of all big ones, the US presidential election as the main event with votes for Congress and the Senate as an undercard. US presidential elections seems to go on forever with primaries, the Electoral College, main party voters and independents, and the ever important seven swing states.To complicate matters further we had Robert F. Kennedy Jr. first running as an independent after being rejected by the Democrats and then endorsing Donald Trump.The Democrats scored a touchdown on the proverbial Hail Mary pass by crowning, rather than electing, Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate.However, the energy this gave the Democrats was due to a negative, the fact that she wasn’t Joe Biden, rather than a positive about the woman herself. When this boost could not be sustained by her refusal to appear in public, the Democrats threw another Hail Mary by letting speak on her own behalf. This Hail Mary went incomplete and now the Republicans have the ball. Even endorsements by Taylor Swift and Vladimir Putin (he especially liked her laugh) could not keep her approval ratings up.Support levels for Trump himself have likely changed little. But J. D. Vance, Trump’s vice president running mate, has shown the longer-term way forward for the Republican party. After four years under a Trump presidency he will learn how to navigate the top. Look for him to name Tulsi Gabbard as his vice president running mate in 2028 and for her to become the first woman US president in 2036. (You heard it first here). Vance is the true game changer for the Republican ticket in this electionThe national poll aggregators continue to indicate a preference for Kamala Harris but this will not be enough to win the electoral college. The election modellers are also giving mixed results. The most recent numbers from Nate Silver has a 50/50 split of winning the electoral college, Fournier has Trump at 51%, while 538.com has 53% for Harris. The media are calling the election close but internal polls have Trump/Vance out in front, thus the Democrats desperate strategy change even putting Harris up against Fox News.It is not working, as is clear from the polling trends in the swing states. These states can go either way in the electoral college votes and so they are key predictors for the eventual winner. The current trend direction favours Trump in five of the seven states but we still have two and half weeks to go.The gamblers have given Trump the election as the October 17 betting has Trump at 62%.The other key wild card in this election is the ballot integrity in the swing states. When we went to bed in 2020, Trump was declared as leading in enough of these states to win the electoral college.However, when we woke up in the morning we found that ballots were still being counted, mysteriously, only in the swing states. Some would say coincidence. Some would say that in elections there are no coincidences. To adapt a phrase usually reserved for the severely paranoid, “Just because you are conspiracy theorist doesn’t mean the world is conspiracy free.’Dinesh D'Souza, who usually does not make stuff up, believes a credible case can be made for tipping the 2020 election. Although the not always unbiased Wikipedia editors have called his work a conspiracy theory the US Supreme court is also concerned about election integrity.That there were voting irregularities in 2020 is not in dispute. A popular meme stated “I was surprised to hear that grandpa voted Democrat. When he was alive he always voted Republican.” The only real question is whether the irregularities were significant enough to change the outcome of the election.After the fact this is likely impossible to prove one way or the other. What is certain this time around is that Republicans will be out in full force scrutinizing the ballot collection and counting process in the swing states. And the elections authorities should be that much more vigilant to ensure a clean process and thus a more accountable result.I boldly predict that the American voters, who generally take their democracy seriously, will show up and vote for Trump/Vance. I fear for the world if the Democratic machine that controlled Biden and will control Harris is allowed four more years of power. The rhetoric and constant attacks against Trump will continue for the next four years but at least the policies will be good and we might even have a few less wars.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
