A recent poll has put the Saskatchewan NDP ahead in the popular vote, suggesting the province’s closest election since 2003 looms this October.An Insightrix poll conducted July 26 found 48% popular support for the NDP, followed by 47% for the Saskatchewan Party, and 5% for another party, setting the tone for a very contested election.Saskatchewan remains polarized across ages, sexes, and geography. Men, people over 55 years of age, and those outside the cities support the SaskParty, while the NDP sweep most other demographics, except ages 35 to 54, which are evenly split between the two parties..The SaskParty has lost ground since September when the party boasted 53% support, a 14% lead over the NDP. By April of this year, the two were almost locked in a dead heat, with the SaskParty at 48% and the NDP at 47%. Now those two numbers have been reversed.SaskParty support has not been lost by any gigantic failure, but in small pieces on various issues.Saskatchewan United Party candidate Jon Hromek won second in the Lumsden-Morse riding in a by-election in August of 2023, having railed the government from a social conservative standpoint on education issues. A grassroots groundswell led the SaskParty government banned third parties, such as Planned Parenthood, from making presentations on sexual education in schools.Bill 137 mandated school staff to consult parents before changing the names and pronouns of students under 16. Although an Angus Reid poll suggested 90% support for parents being informed, the education file dominated a contentious fall legislative session followed by another in the spring.The last teachers’ contract expired at the end of August 2023, leaving the two sides in an irreconcilable standoff regarding issues of classroom size and complexity. Although statistics suggested an average class size of 20 children and salaries already well past $90,000 and 12 weeks off, the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation was effective at representing their interests and rallying much of the public to their side.The contract will go through binding arbitration in December, but raises of 3%, 3%, and 2%, have already been agreed to, leaving only the arrangements for classroom size and complexity to be decided. While the resolution is at hand, the fallout remains.The same can be said after revelations the Ministry of Social Services spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to fund clients at motels owned by Saskatchewan Party MLA Gary Grewal.Grewal has ownership in the Sunrise Motel and the Thriftlodge, both in Regina. In 2022-23, the Sunrise made the most money in Regina from Social Services, $220,474. The Thriftlodge was third at $163,704.From April to September 2023, the Thriftlodge was the highest-grossing in Regina at $139,478 and the Sunrise second at $110,887.In 2022-23, social services got rooms from the Sunrise at $151 and $186 from the Thriftlodge, on average. Such rates were the highest-costing Regina rooms the ministry used and were double the rates for Thirftlodge and Sunrise listed at Booking.com.Grewal announced in February he would not seek re-election in Regina Northeast, and a revised RFP process to house social service clients is in the works. However, the fallout remains, especially for Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky.The Insightrix poll shows NDP dominance on the issue of health care, deemed most important by those polled. For months, the party brought patients and families to the legislature who complained of inadequate care or having to travel out-of-province. They also alleged favouritism after former SaskParty finance minister Kevin Doherty successfully lobbied for a Calgary company (a SaskParty donor) to offer surgeries and scans.Doherty also lobbied for California-based company CRM, a company that won two separate RFPs to secure the entire Saskatchewan scrap tire market. Although Doherty’s involvement came after the bid for a contract for southern tires, his involvement did nothing to help the SaskParty’s reputation. Shercom Industries, a Saskatoon rubber products manufacturer that previously recycled all scrap tires, complained the province had acted in bad faith for a bad result. The Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce wrote the province repeatedly asking for more disclosure on the reasons for the contracts and to complain of their results, but to no avail. The Insightrix poll found NDP support at 64% in Saskatoon, even higher than the 61% in Regina.In an unusual twist, the SaskParty’s longest-serving MLA, Randy Weekes, turned on his party during his final day in the legislature. He accused Government House Leader Jeremy Harrison of bullying him and two previous speakers and carrying a gun into the legislature. Weekes lost the SaskParty nomination after riding boundaries were shuffled to account for population changes.A staggering 22 of the SaskParty’s 48 MLAs elected in 2020 aren’t running in 2024. These include some who resigned before their term was done, as well as veteran cabinet ministers part of the inaugural Brad Wall government in 2007. Also, the SaskParty’s challengers on the right, the Buffalo Party and Progressive Conservatives, has been joined by the upstart Sask United Party.Bleeding support on the right may help the NDP gain a few urban seats. However, even if the NDP took all 12 in Regina and all 14 in Saskatoon, those 26 seats would not constitute half of the 61 seat total.Although young voters can’t recall the years the NDP repaid the provincial debt on the backs of rural residents, many living there still do. It would be a surprise indeed if the SaskParty didn’t keep most of those seats, though a few might be in contention.Fortunately for the SaskParty, the province made good strides in recent months at addressing a weak spot in health care, the top issue identified by the Insightrix poll. Meanwhile, the SaskParty dominates the NDP by wide margins on those who care about the next three priority issues: “inflation/ rising costs”, “economy / jobs” and “taxes.”.The incumbent SaskParty cannot presume favourable results. Too much has changed in the ridings, candidates, and parties–let alone the issues, to assume a fifth straight election win. No, October will offer the SaskParty faces its greatest challenge since the NDP was re-elected with a narrow majority in 2003.A post below suggests pollsters tend to underestimate SaskParty support.
A recent poll has put the Saskatchewan NDP ahead in the popular vote, suggesting the province’s closest election since 2003 looms this October.An Insightrix poll conducted July 26 found 48% popular support for the NDP, followed by 47% for the Saskatchewan Party, and 5% for another party, setting the tone for a very contested election.Saskatchewan remains polarized across ages, sexes, and geography. Men, people over 55 years of age, and those outside the cities support the SaskParty, while the NDP sweep most other demographics, except ages 35 to 54, which are evenly split between the two parties..The SaskParty has lost ground since September when the party boasted 53% support, a 14% lead over the NDP. By April of this year, the two were almost locked in a dead heat, with the SaskParty at 48% and the NDP at 47%. Now those two numbers have been reversed.SaskParty support has not been lost by any gigantic failure, but in small pieces on various issues.Saskatchewan United Party candidate Jon Hromek won second in the Lumsden-Morse riding in a by-election in August of 2023, having railed the government from a social conservative standpoint on education issues. A grassroots groundswell led the SaskParty government banned third parties, such as Planned Parenthood, from making presentations on sexual education in schools.Bill 137 mandated school staff to consult parents before changing the names and pronouns of students under 16. Although an Angus Reid poll suggested 90% support for parents being informed, the education file dominated a contentious fall legislative session followed by another in the spring.The last teachers’ contract expired at the end of August 2023, leaving the two sides in an irreconcilable standoff regarding issues of classroom size and complexity. Although statistics suggested an average class size of 20 children and salaries already well past $90,000 and 12 weeks off, the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation was effective at representing their interests and rallying much of the public to their side.The contract will go through binding arbitration in December, but raises of 3%, 3%, and 2%, have already been agreed to, leaving only the arrangements for classroom size and complexity to be decided. While the resolution is at hand, the fallout remains.The same can be said after revelations the Ministry of Social Services spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to fund clients at motels owned by Saskatchewan Party MLA Gary Grewal.Grewal has ownership in the Sunrise Motel and the Thriftlodge, both in Regina. In 2022-23, the Sunrise made the most money in Regina from Social Services, $220,474. The Thriftlodge was third at $163,704.From April to September 2023, the Thriftlodge was the highest-grossing in Regina at $139,478 and the Sunrise second at $110,887.In 2022-23, social services got rooms from the Sunrise at $151 and $186 from the Thriftlodge, on average. Such rates were the highest-costing Regina rooms the ministry used and were double the rates for Thirftlodge and Sunrise listed at Booking.com.Grewal announced in February he would not seek re-election in Regina Northeast, and a revised RFP process to house social service clients is in the works. However, the fallout remains, especially for Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky.The Insightrix poll shows NDP dominance on the issue of health care, deemed most important by those polled. For months, the party brought patients and families to the legislature who complained of inadequate care or having to travel out-of-province. They also alleged favouritism after former SaskParty finance minister Kevin Doherty successfully lobbied for a Calgary company (a SaskParty donor) to offer surgeries and scans.Doherty also lobbied for California-based company CRM, a company that won two separate RFPs to secure the entire Saskatchewan scrap tire market. Although Doherty’s involvement came after the bid for a contract for southern tires, his involvement did nothing to help the SaskParty’s reputation. Shercom Industries, a Saskatoon rubber products manufacturer that previously recycled all scrap tires, complained the province had acted in bad faith for a bad result. The Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce wrote the province repeatedly asking for more disclosure on the reasons for the contracts and to complain of their results, but to no avail. The Insightrix poll found NDP support at 64% in Saskatoon, even higher than the 61% in Regina.In an unusual twist, the SaskParty’s longest-serving MLA, Randy Weekes, turned on his party during his final day in the legislature. He accused Government House Leader Jeremy Harrison of bullying him and two previous speakers and carrying a gun into the legislature. Weekes lost the SaskParty nomination after riding boundaries were shuffled to account for population changes.A staggering 22 of the SaskParty’s 48 MLAs elected in 2020 aren’t running in 2024. These include some who resigned before their term was done, as well as veteran cabinet ministers part of the inaugural Brad Wall government in 2007. Also, the SaskParty’s challengers on the right, the Buffalo Party and Progressive Conservatives, has been joined by the upstart Sask United Party.Bleeding support on the right may help the NDP gain a few urban seats. However, even if the NDP took all 12 in Regina and all 14 in Saskatoon, those 26 seats would not constitute half of the 61 seat total.Although young voters can’t recall the years the NDP repaid the provincial debt on the backs of rural residents, many living there still do. It would be a surprise indeed if the SaskParty didn’t keep most of those seats, though a few might be in contention.Fortunately for the SaskParty, the province made good strides in recent months at addressing a weak spot in health care, the top issue identified by the Insightrix poll. Meanwhile, the SaskParty dominates the NDP by wide margins on those who care about the next three priority issues: “inflation/ rising costs”, “economy / jobs” and “taxes.”.The incumbent SaskParty cannot presume favourable results. Too much has changed in the ridings, candidates, and parties–let alone the issues, to assume a fifth straight election win. No, October will offer the SaskParty faces its greatest challenge since the NDP was re-elected with a narrow majority in 2003.A post below suggests pollsters tend to underestimate SaskParty support.
