GORMLEY: In Saskatchewan, NDP calls for change, but what change?

John Gormley is a former MP, retired Saskatchewan radio talk show host and now Legal Counsel at Seiferling LawIn a province that takes its politics as seriously as its hockey — and isn’t afraid of a good scrap in either pursuit — there’s a sense of history in the air as Saskatchewan voters head to the polls later this month.The governing Saskatchewan Party, in office for 17 years, is seeking a fifth term. This hasn’t been done by a free market, non-socialist party since Saskatchewan’s original 1905 Liberal government had a twenty-four year run more than a century ago. Should the SaskParty be successful on October 28th, it will have logged 21 years in office, eclipsing the CCF/NDP’s record 20 years from 1944 to 1964. In addition to the policies, personalities and strategies of this campaign, there’s a master class here in the unique politics of Saskatchewan.Before its defeat by the SaskParty in 2007, Saskatchewan’s NDP had been the province’s natural governing party for decades, interrupted only twice since 1944. The party of prairie socialism was renowned for marrying the pragmatic with the radical, shaping messages that often bridged left wing union-supported policies with “Main Street politics.” All of it was underpinned by a highly organized and effective election campaign machine that fired up every four years.But despite generations of leftists proclaiming the province as the “new Jerusalem” of progressive politics, most people in Saskatchewan never signed up for this and became increasingly frustrated at NDP outcomes far below the potential of a province blessed with Saskatchewan’s abundant resources and human capital.The NDP genius was vote splitting. The party’s hero, Tommy Douglas, regaled audiences with his “Parable of Mouseland," a hokey tale of earnest little Saskatchewan mice prospering because they successfully kept the black cats and white cats (Liberals and Conservatives) fighting with one another rather than mousing.History bore this out: in the twenty-two elections since 1934 only four times had the CCF/NDP ever won 50% of the vote. Usually, the majority of voters — those feuding black and white cats — watched every election night as a modern day political dynasty rolled on without them. This changed with the 1997 creation of the SaskParty, a defacto and genuine merger of Liberals and Conservatives, defined less by political ideology and more by their frustration with vote splitting and decades of NDP governments.Having existed for just six elections, the SaskParty has won the last four campaigns with over 50% of the popular vote, three of them clearing the 60% hurdle, something never achieved by the NDP.Four years ago, the SaskParty won 48 of Saskatchewan’s 61 seats and the NDP took 13. Historically, with strong enclaves in Saskatoon and Regina, the NDP held impenetrable fortresses in Prince Albert and Moose Jaw and consistently won in smaller cities and in certain country seats.Today, the NDP is urban only, holding seven of Regina's 12 seats and six of Saskatoon's fourteen. They likely will pick up seats in the two largest cities.The SaskParty holds a combined13 seats in Saskatoon and Regina, all four ridings in Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and every single rural, suburban and smaller city seat, except for one country seat where an MLA, expelled from the SaskParty caucus, helped found a newly created right-wing entity called the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP.)Despite the SaskParty likely hanging on to several strong urban seats, the media and NDP echo chamber have talked themselves into a frenzy of a complete NDP sweep of all 26 big city seats, Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and the hope that the SUP will split enough votes (welcome back Black and White cats) to enable the NDP to win a handful of other ridings, catapulting the party to the 31 seats needed for a majority. To be sure, some SaskParty urban erosion is happening and is attributable to fatigue with a 17-year government that needs an urban refresh. And like governments elsewhere, Scott Moe’s party shoulders many of the same post-COVID healthcare and cost of living challenges that are faced across Canada. The NDP ballot question is simple: the SaskParty is out of ideas and money, and it’s time for change. Change to what is still an open question. .Led by an earnest social worker and former school board trustee, Carla Beck, the NDP still has a number of challenges to overcome.There are enough MLAs and NDP candidates on record supporting Ottawa’s unpopular and ineffective carbon tax to raise concerns. The party also hasn’t put enough daylight between itself and its hard left faction that advocates pronouns over parents, and thinly veiled bigotry in the pro-Palestinian/anti-Israel issues. And, at the retail political level, an incoherent costing exercise has the NDP playing defence trying to explain a $2 billion dollar gap in its election spending promises. The word "incoherent" may not truly describe the NDP document explaining that a 6-month elimination of the province’s annual $521 million dollar fuel tax will cost $62.5 million! The SaskParty ballot question is also simple, focussing on a continued strong economy and a bright future. The subtext is that a robust, opportunity-based economy provides growth and the financial yield that enables more spending on health care, education and tax cuts. Voters are also warned against going back to the NDP years which were characterized by an underperforming economy, promoting and managing mediocre outcomes, and a population exodus that saw the closure of 52 mainly rural hospitals and 175 schools. John Gormley is a former MP, retired Saskatchewan radio talk show host and now Legal Counsel at Seiferling Law.

GORMLEY: In Saskatchewan, NDP calls for change, but what change?

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