As the election results rolled in across Saskatchewan Monday night, it was lost on no one that it’s been a precarious time for incumbent governments. From the aftermath of COVID-19 politics to fatigue with those overstaying their welcomes, tossing governments is in fashion. For the province’s governing Saskatchewan Party it was a memorable 17th anniversary, marked by winning a rare, fifth term in office. A closely fought race, against a long-banished NDP that’s back from exile, it was a campaign of political lessons, careers launched and ended, and opportunities abounding. The SaskParty and Premier Scott Moe were re-elected with a narrow majority government of thirty-four seats to the NDP’s twenty seven, the closest the two parties have come since the NDP’s last win back in 2003. The Saskatchewan Party’s political brand continues intact. But, in the big cities of Regina and Saskatoon particularly, it needs a refresh. It was in the cities, along with the two large Northern ridings that NDP leader Carla Beck won most of her ridings. The SaskParty meanwhile, retained all 29 rural, small city and suburban seats plus the four critical Prince Albert and Moose Jaw seats, and province-wide took 53% of the popular vote to the NDP’s 40%. This is where even a cursory look at two media-paid public opinion polls during the campaign — we’re looking at you CTV — could raise legitimate questions about media malpractice... When the highly publicized Insightrix Polls, released during the election campaign by CTV, projected NDP popular votes of 49% and 50% and SaskParty votes of 48% and 45%, nowhere close to the actual numbers. (53/45)As the orange tsunami washed over the big cities, it swept away five cabinet ministers, including high profile Justice Minister Bronwyn Eyre and former Health Minister Paul Merriman.The extent of the urban sweep was clearly attributable to the only issues that mattered at the doors: healthcare, education and the cost of living. And the NDP sales job was better: families without a doctor or unhappy with their child’s school should know it’s all Scott Moe’s fault, the narrative went.For the SaskParty to earn back some of the city seats — particularly four of them handily won in the past — there will have to be a significant pivot to re-engage city voters. This will come by authentically demonstrating to urban audiences that government cares, understands and gets it. And this must be communicated by acknowledging people’s frustration, showing a willingness to listen, a capacity to share ideas and then taking concrete steps toward solutions. In his acceptance speech, a reserved and humble Scott Moe acknowledged that “I have heard the message that was delivered here this evening … there are many people who voted for the Saskatchewan Party in the past but chose not to in this election. We have lost your support … All of us in government and it starts with myself, we’re going to take a little bit of time to reflect on the message that was sent here this evening to reflect on what exactly that means.”Those of us who follow Saskatchewan politics had predicted a strictly two party affair. The stakes were too high for the established SaskParty and the re-emerging NDP to worry about vote splitting, although some of the devotees in the upstart Saskatchewan United Party had tried selling various vote splitting scenarios. The SUP was a bust, polling just 3.9% of the popular vote and finishing no higher than third in any seat. The prairie fortress, erected in 2007 by centre-right voters to block the NDP, continues to hold off a return to Saskatchewan left wing politics. But the cracks are now evident and, if not patched in the next four years, the historic SaskParty run will come to an end after lasting 21 consecutive years, which is longer than any NDP government and second only to the original Saskatchewan Liberals who went for 24 years. SaskParty supporters have to ask themselves if they are willing to let their long run end.
As the election results rolled in across Saskatchewan Monday night, it was lost on no one that it’s been a precarious time for incumbent governments. From the aftermath of COVID-19 politics to fatigue with those overstaying their welcomes, tossing governments is in fashion. For the province’s governing Saskatchewan Party it was a memorable 17th anniversary, marked by winning a rare, fifth term in office. A closely fought race, against a long-banished NDP that’s back from exile, it was a campaign of political lessons, careers launched and ended, and opportunities abounding. The SaskParty and Premier Scott Moe were re-elected with a narrow majority government of thirty-four seats to the NDP’s twenty seven, the closest the two parties have come since the NDP’s last win back in 2003. The Saskatchewan Party’s political brand continues intact. But, in the big cities of Regina and Saskatoon particularly, it needs a refresh. It was in the cities, along with the two large Northern ridings that NDP leader Carla Beck won most of her ridings. The SaskParty meanwhile, retained all 29 rural, small city and suburban seats plus the four critical Prince Albert and Moose Jaw seats, and province-wide took 53% of the popular vote to the NDP’s 40%. This is where even a cursory look at two media-paid public opinion polls during the campaign — we’re looking at you CTV — could raise legitimate questions about media malpractice... When the highly publicized Insightrix Polls, released during the election campaign by CTV, projected NDP popular votes of 49% and 50% and SaskParty votes of 48% and 45%, nowhere close to the actual numbers. (53/45)As the orange tsunami washed over the big cities, it swept away five cabinet ministers, including high profile Justice Minister Bronwyn Eyre and former Health Minister Paul Merriman.The extent of the urban sweep was clearly attributable to the only issues that mattered at the doors: healthcare, education and the cost of living. And the NDP sales job was better: families without a doctor or unhappy with their child’s school should know it’s all Scott Moe’s fault, the narrative went.For the SaskParty to earn back some of the city seats — particularly four of them handily won in the past — there will have to be a significant pivot to re-engage city voters. This will come by authentically demonstrating to urban audiences that government cares, understands and gets it. And this must be communicated by acknowledging people’s frustration, showing a willingness to listen, a capacity to share ideas and then taking concrete steps toward solutions. In his acceptance speech, a reserved and humble Scott Moe acknowledged that “I have heard the message that was delivered here this evening … there are many people who voted for the Saskatchewan Party in the past but chose not to in this election. We have lost your support … All of us in government and it starts with myself, we’re going to take a little bit of time to reflect on the message that was sent here this evening to reflect on what exactly that means.”Those of us who follow Saskatchewan politics had predicted a strictly two party affair. The stakes were too high for the established SaskParty and the re-emerging NDP to worry about vote splitting, although some of the devotees in the upstart Saskatchewan United Party had tried selling various vote splitting scenarios. The SUP was a bust, polling just 3.9% of the popular vote and finishing no higher than third in any seat. The prairie fortress, erected in 2007 by centre-right voters to block the NDP, continues to hold off a return to Saskatchewan left wing politics. But the cracks are now evident and, if not patched in the next four years, the historic SaskParty run will come to an end after lasting 21 consecutive years, which is longer than any NDP government and second only to the original Saskatchewan Liberals who went for 24 years. SaskParty supporters have to ask themselves if they are willing to let their long run end.
