The math on the 'Just Transition' just doesn't add up..There is neither enough land nor cash to construct the kind of China-dominated, weather-dependent energy systems in Alberta on the scale that would be necessary for them to replace our accustomed carbon-based sources of energy. As far as I can tell, the whole thing is nothing more than a money grab and a recipe for inflation. .Meanwhile, advanced fourth generation nuclear plants are only now becoming commercially available and it will take another decade of massive investment and political will to begin seeing them roll out in quantity. Likewise, Canada's CANDU technology takes many years to build, according to an intelligent deployment schedule. Time to get started: The regulatory time scales for approvals of new nuclear plants take years..Meanwhile, Trudeau's climate tax is set to triple by 2030..Let's look at Alberta's hydrocarbon usage and try to estimate what it would take in terms of investment and land money and land, to hypothetically replace it with electricity. .This simple thought exercise will demonstrate the shear absurdity that Alberta can Just Transition is energy export industry to the so-called clean tech options currently afforded to us..In 2022, Albertan oil and gas operations on a daily average basis, produced 3.7 million barrels of oil and 330 million cubic meters of natural gas. On an energy equivalent basis, this production rate equates to an approximate 500,000 MW flow of hydrocarbon energy. Note that Albert's peak electrical energy demand in December 2022 was just over 12,000 MW, while Canada's total combined electrical production capacity is 150,000 MW. So, we produce a lot more than we use. (Albertans should pride themselves in our exceptional productivity.)".So, what would it look like to Just Transition 500,000 MW of energy production to either wind or solar?.To establish a frame of reference, let's use the massive 13.5 sq.km Travers 465 MW (nameplate capacity) solar PV facility that was commissioned in 2022 in Vulcan County. Accounting for its shear size and average output, the Travers plant produces a mere five watts per square meter. Taking that as typical, it would therefore take a 100,000 sq.km solar PV facility to produce — on average — the equivalent energy output of Alberta's oil and gas sector..Wind fields are an even more diffuse form of energy than solar PV and comes in around one watt per square meter. Thus, a wind farm would have to be around 500,000 square kilometers to Just Transition Alberta to wind energy. Can you imagine the scale of such an environmental disaster that one large wind turbine tower per sq.km spread out across most of Alberta would look like and the damage it would cause?.As Alberta is 660,000 square kilometers in size, clearly, we are not going to convert Southern Alberta to one massive solar PV array or 75 % of the entire province to a giant wind farm. To even suggest as much would be utter insanity..The need for massive investments in new energy storage technologies is the next dilemma..Utility-scale energy storage is desperately needed to provide for times when the wind doesn't blow, the sky clouds over, the sun sets or winter demand for energy explodes..Currently, natural gas peaking plants serve to cover the failures of wind and solar to produce stable power to the grid. This ultimately will have to end if Albertans are to achieve regulatory compliance on CO2 emissions. Additionally, large underground caverns are currently used to store natural gas for heating to cover the explosive demand for heat during the winter season. This too will have to end according to proponents of the Just Transition..My math suggests a single week of electrical storage sized to cover Alberta's average domestic energy consumption rate would cost between $1 trillion to $3 trillion. As our current cavern-based natural gas storage facilities are designed to store enough energy to cover the winter season, one week of electrical storage is hardly sufficient as a replacement..Where are Albertans going to find trillions of dollars for this new massive storage network that is required to get us through the tough winter months?.Why are we being told to do so or face the penalty of paying almost $9 per GJ in climate tax on the natural gas required to heat your home by 2030? Could it be that the Just Transition is just a green smoke screen meant to further fund and deflate our massive public sector debt through inflation?
The math on the 'Just Transition' just doesn't add up..There is neither enough land nor cash to construct the kind of China-dominated, weather-dependent energy systems in Alberta on the scale that would be necessary for them to replace our accustomed carbon-based sources of energy. As far as I can tell, the whole thing is nothing more than a money grab and a recipe for inflation. .Meanwhile, advanced fourth generation nuclear plants are only now becoming commercially available and it will take another decade of massive investment and political will to begin seeing them roll out in quantity. Likewise, Canada's CANDU technology takes many years to build, according to an intelligent deployment schedule. Time to get started: The regulatory time scales for approvals of new nuclear plants take years..Meanwhile, Trudeau's climate tax is set to triple by 2030..Let's look at Alberta's hydrocarbon usage and try to estimate what it would take in terms of investment and land money and land, to hypothetically replace it with electricity. .This simple thought exercise will demonstrate the shear absurdity that Alberta can Just Transition is energy export industry to the so-called clean tech options currently afforded to us..In 2022, Albertan oil and gas operations on a daily average basis, produced 3.7 million barrels of oil and 330 million cubic meters of natural gas. On an energy equivalent basis, this production rate equates to an approximate 500,000 MW flow of hydrocarbon energy. Note that Albert's peak electrical energy demand in December 2022 was just over 12,000 MW, while Canada's total combined electrical production capacity is 150,000 MW. So, we produce a lot more than we use. (Albertans should pride themselves in our exceptional productivity.)".So, what would it look like to Just Transition 500,000 MW of energy production to either wind or solar?.To establish a frame of reference, let's use the massive 13.5 sq.km Travers 465 MW (nameplate capacity) solar PV facility that was commissioned in 2022 in Vulcan County. Accounting for its shear size and average output, the Travers plant produces a mere five watts per square meter. Taking that as typical, it would therefore take a 100,000 sq.km solar PV facility to produce — on average — the equivalent energy output of Alberta's oil and gas sector..Wind fields are an even more diffuse form of energy than solar PV and comes in around one watt per square meter. Thus, a wind farm would have to be around 500,000 square kilometers to Just Transition Alberta to wind energy. Can you imagine the scale of such an environmental disaster that one large wind turbine tower per sq.km spread out across most of Alberta would look like and the damage it would cause?.As Alberta is 660,000 square kilometers in size, clearly, we are not going to convert Southern Alberta to one massive solar PV array or 75 % of the entire province to a giant wind farm. To even suggest as much would be utter insanity..The need for massive investments in new energy storage technologies is the next dilemma..Utility-scale energy storage is desperately needed to provide for times when the wind doesn't blow, the sky clouds over, the sun sets or winter demand for energy explodes..Currently, natural gas peaking plants serve to cover the failures of wind and solar to produce stable power to the grid. This ultimately will have to end if Albertans are to achieve regulatory compliance on CO2 emissions. Additionally, large underground caverns are currently used to store natural gas for heating to cover the explosive demand for heat during the winter season. This too will have to end according to proponents of the Just Transition..My math suggests a single week of electrical storage sized to cover Alberta's average domestic energy consumption rate would cost between $1 trillion to $3 trillion. As our current cavern-based natural gas storage facilities are designed to store enough energy to cover the winter season, one week of electrical storage is hardly sufficient as a replacement..Where are Albertans going to find trillions of dollars for this new massive storage network that is required to get us through the tough winter months?.Why are we being told to do so or face the penalty of paying almost $9 per GJ in climate tax on the natural gas required to heat your home by 2030? Could it be that the Just Transition is just a green smoke screen meant to further fund and deflate our massive public sector debt through inflation?
