Co-authored by Andrew Nellestyn, Ph.D. Nuclear Engineer, former Executive Vice President Atomic Energy Canada Limited (AECL)We are sick and tired of being told that math is racist and that it is immoral to use our natural resources to power our everyday lives. If you are like us and wish to see a return to energy and climate realism in Canadian public policy, this article is written for you.Here in this article, we dare to declare the six central tenets of our energy-climate thesis, which we believe represent fundamental self-evident truths supported by history and science.Energy Use & Human ProgressNumber One: We reject the ideology of energy efficiency and conservation as substitutes for expanding the per capita supply of affordable and readily accessible primary energy. Instead, we must massively expand supply and incentivize per capita energy consumption as the path to elevated productivity and to ending energy poverty.Historical evidence abounds showing that there is a rapid rise in human happiness and overall well-being as per capita consumption rate of energy increases. Here are just a few examples:• Life expectancies and infant mortalities decrease as per capita energy use increases.• 10 to 15 calories of energy is used for every calorie consumed in modern non-agrarian societies.• Achieving optimal states of air quality and sanitation in modern societies is very energy intensive.• Canadians' consumption of primary energy per capita is one of the highest in the world. Our cold climate, large landmass, agricultural and energy industries all act to drive our energy use to the high end of the per capita consumption distribution curve.Forward looking, we can expect per capita energy consumption rates to increase. Here are a few examples of factors that will require a massive expansion of the supply of affordable sustainable energy:• The Fourth Industrial Revolution, or the rapid growth of digital economies. • The Space Age (e.g. SpaceX) is upon us and the long term survival of our species and sustainability of natural resources on planet Earth require that we colonize the Solar System.• Adaptation to future warming or cooling climate changes.• Terraforming global deserts (e.g. Saudi Arabia) and massive expansions in desalination and potable water production capacity. The over emphasis on energy efficiency and conservation results in higher rates of non-renewable material use (e.g. critical inputs) that are in limited supply relative to primary energy sources such as uranium, coal and natural gas. They are by their very nature inflationary as they promote artificial scarcity. Energy Conversion Technology SovereigntyNumber Two: Energy conversion technology sovereignty as a national security strategy must become a national goal in Canada. Historically, Canada’s massive 20-year apolitical, national investment (1945 to 1965) in developing its CANDU nuclear power generation technology base at Chalk River and at Douglas Point Ontario was in large part influenced by the recognition that Ontario’s coal resource was rapidly depleting. Energy sovereignty over emissions was the overriding consideration. Today, 60% of Ontario’s power comes from its fleet of 19 large CANDU reactors and its supply chain is entirely contained within Canada.Historically, CANDU technology has afforded Canada substantial geopolitical leverage in international relations.Presently, there are numerous advanced nuclear energy start-ups in Canada that are working to commercialize small-to-micro modular reactor (SMR/MMR) technologies with applications extending well beyond power generation. We only need the political will power.In view of the fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) utterly dominates the global wind, solar and net-zero critical minerals supply chain, I argue that these technologies are a Trojan Horse for their ultimate geopolitical objectives. With the increasing prospects of military conflict with the CCP in the Indo-Pacific region and the existential threat imposed on Canadians by their reported encroachment on our electoral sovereignty, we must reject any further dependence on the CCP in power generation.Our grid is our life support system.Canada’s Primary Energy ResourcesNumber Three: All Canadians have a fundamental right and obligation to utilize the massive primary energy potential contained within Canada’s uranium and hydrocarbon resource base. Canada’s yet-to-be fully quantified hydrocarbon resource within the Grosmont, Athabasca, Grand Rapids, Duvernay, Montney, Mackenzie River Delta, Horn River and Bakken geological formations represents centuries of production potential at current rates of exploitation. The uncertainty represents the fact that historically, resource estimates often scales with exploration, which is still in its early stages.While Canada has currently turned its back, save for export, on its 10 billion tonnes of coal reserves, it is important to highlight that this energy resource represents the equivalent energy base of its entire oil and gas sector.Additionally, Canada’s uranium resource is currently estimated at 580,000 tonnes, which is largely contained within Saskatchewan. At current rates of production and resource utilization, this primary energy resource will be depleted within 30 years unless advanced nuclear fuel cycles and partially spent fuel reprocessing technologies (a.k.a closed fuel cycle) are adopted. Intelligent Uranium Resource UtilizationNumber Four: Canada must move past its current archaic one-through fuel cycle and deep geological repository (DGR) design philosophy and embrace a closed fuel cycle as part of its long term uranium resource management plan.Canada’s current uranium resource utilization strategy is based upon a mere 1 weight % conversion of the inherent fuel potential in the unenriched uranium fuel passing once-through a CANDU reactor. After which, this barely utilized fuel is set aside for eventual long term storage in a DGR. After 30 years of stakeholder engagement, no long-term storage site has been selected and it is estimated that a DGR will cost taxpayers over $10 billion.Canada must reject the DGR concept by developing a closed fuel cycle.A closed uranium fuel cycle will expand the long-term energy potential of our conventional uranium resource by factors of 10 to 10. Russia, India, France and Japan are rapidly advancing this technological capability.Waste from closed fuel cycles could potentially be stored in simple low-cost Class C waste facilities that will have a radiological signature on par with background in a couple of centuries versus a few hundred thousand years with once-through fuel cycle waste. Do we spend $10 billion on a DGR, or $10 billion on the technology mix required to recycle/repurpose partially spent fuel for reuse in our nuclear fleet? If the latter approach expands our 30-year uranium resource into a +1,000 year supply of energy, the answer is straightforward.Note that at current rates of global energy consumption, conventional and unconventional reserves of uranium represent a near limitless source of primary energy.Advanced Nuclear Will Make Hydrocarbons LimitlessNumber Five: Advanced nuclear technologies will allow the economic production of synthetic fuels from the uranium, carbon and hydrogen contained in sea water.There is 1,000 times more uranium dissolved in sea water than in known geological reserves on land, and the oceans contain 50 times more dissolved inorganic carbon than the atmosphere.It only requires engineering innovation to economically harvest and refine this potential energy, carbon and hydrogen from sea water to create a near infinite synthetic hydrocarbon resource base. The scientific know-how exists.Imagine a future, where large ocean going nuclear powered refineries produce all our hydrocarbon feed-stock for fuels and plastics. A circular economy concept, with minimal environmental impact.Planning for Climate ChangeNumber Six: With ever increasing evidence that climatic changes, past and present, are largely due to natural processes, our best strategy is to invest in adaptation as a long-term strategy.Figure 1 highlights that just 1,000 years ago, stream-flow of the North Saskatchewan river was greatly reduced relative to the last century and was quite possibly a seasonal event. Winters were warmer and a near perennial state of drought existed over much of western North America and the Prairies were much more arid.With the Canadian Prairie region’s rapid population growth, a long-term strategy on water supply should include a serious consideration of diverting fresh water from Great Slave Lake and Lesser Slave Lake to South Central Alberta and Saskatchewan. The recent snow drought in the Rocky Mountains, together with the talk of a potential state of emergency being declared on water supply in Alberta, suggests that our existence is precarious in view of our ever-changing climate..Figure 1. 1,000 year reconstruction of climatic and hydrological variability of the eastern Rocky Mountains and North Saskatchewan River.Our prayer is that this simple act of defiance and alternative vision of our collective energy future will serve to catalyze a reformation on matters relating to energy and climate policy. Recall from history how the Protestant Reformation and Age of Enlightenment organically evolved following Martin Luther’s 95 theses that he published in defiance of the Holy Roman Catholic Church’s sale of Indulgences. As Martin Luther rallied against the sale of indulgences as a false path to achieving a state of righteousness in the eyes of God, we reject the notion that carbon credits or climate taxes will green-wash our carbon sins or save us from the perils of climate change.In summary, we must not and cannot permit mythical, unscrupulous net-zero energy policies to unduly and dangerously assault our national sovereignty, energy independence or impair our economic development and social well-being.Nuclear energy and the technological evolution of advanced fuel cycles, as well as small mobile nuclear reactors balanced in concert with our other plentiful supply of natural energy sources will pave the way to responsibly and sustainably power Canada’s future for centuries to come.
Co-authored by Andrew Nellestyn, Ph.D. Nuclear Engineer, former Executive Vice President Atomic Energy Canada Limited (AECL)We are sick and tired of being told that math is racist and that it is immoral to use our natural resources to power our everyday lives. If you are like us and wish to see a return to energy and climate realism in Canadian public policy, this article is written for you.Here in this article, we dare to declare the six central tenets of our energy-climate thesis, which we believe represent fundamental self-evident truths supported by history and science.Energy Use & Human ProgressNumber One: We reject the ideology of energy efficiency and conservation as substitutes for expanding the per capita supply of affordable and readily accessible primary energy. Instead, we must massively expand supply and incentivize per capita energy consumption as the path to elevated productivity and to ending energy poverty.Historical evidence abounds showing that there is a rapid rise in human happiness and overall well-being as per capita consumption rate of energy increases. Here are just a few examples:• Life expectancies and infant mortalities decrease as per capita energy use increases.• 10 to 15 calories of energy is used for every calorie consumed in modern non-agrarian societies.• Achieving optimal states of air quality and sanitation in modern societies is very energy intensive.• Canadians' consumption of primary energy per capita is one of the highest in the world. Our cold climate, large landmass, agricultural and energy industries all act to drive our energy use to the high end of the per capita consumption distribution curve.Forward looking, we can expect per capita energy consumption rates to increase. Here are a few examples of factors that will require a massive expansion of the supply of affordable sustainable energy:• The Fourth Industrial Revolution, or the rapid growth of digital economies. • The Space Age (e.g. SpaceX) is upon us and the long term survival of our species and sustainability of natural resources on planet Earth require that we colonize the Solar System.• Adaptation to future warming or cooling climate changes.• Terraforming global deserts (e.g. Saudi Arabia) and massive expansions in desalination and potable water production capacity. The over emphasis on energy efficiency and conservation results in higher rates of non-renewable material use (e.g. critical inputs) that are in limited supply relative to primary energy sources such as uranium, coal and natural gas. They are by their very nature inflationary as they promote artificial scarcity. Energy Conversion Technology SovereigntyNumber Two: Energy conversion technology sovereignty as a national security strategy must become a national goal in Canada. Historically, Canada’s massive 20-year apolitical, national investment (1945 to 1965) in developing its CANDU nuclear power generation technology base at Chalk River and at Douglas Point Ontario was in large part influenced by the recognition that Ontario’s coal resource was rapidly depleting. Energy sovereignty over emissions was the overriding consideration. Today, 60% of Ontario’s power comes from its fleet of 19 large CANDU reactors and its supply chain is entirely contained within Canada.Historically, CANDU technology has afforded Canada substantial geopolitical leverage in international relations.Presently, there are numerous advanced nuclear energy start-ups in Canada that are working to commercialize small-to-micro modular reactor (SMR/MMR) technologies with applications extending well beyond power generation. We only need the political will power.In view of the fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) utterly dominates the global wind, solar and net-zero critical minerals supply chain, I argue that these technologies are a Trojan Horse for their ultimate geopolitical objectives. With the increasing prospects of military conflict with the CCP in the Indo-Pacific region and the existential threat imposed on Canadians by their reported encroachment on our electoral sovereignty, we must reject any further dependence on the CCP in power generation.Our grid is our life support system.Canada’s Primary Energy ResourcesNumber Three: All Canadians have a fundamental right and obligation to utilize the massive primary energy potential contained within Canada’s uranium and hydrocarbon resource base. Canada’s yet-to-be fully quantified hydrocarbon resource within the Grosmont, Athabasca, Grand Rapids, Duvernay, Montney, Mackenzie River Delta, Horn River and Bakken geological formations represents centuries of production potential at current rates of exploitation. The uncertainty represents the fact that historically, resource estimates often scales with exploration, which is still in its early stages.While Canada has currently turned its back, save for export, on its 10 billion tonnes of coal reserves, it is important to highlight that this energy resource represents the equivalent energy base of its entire oil and gas sector.Additionally, Canada’s uranium resource is currently estimated at 580,000 tonnes, which is largely contained within Saskatchewan. At current rates of production and resource utilization, this primary energy resource will be depleted within 30 years unless advanced nuclear fuel cycles and partially spent fuel reprocessing technologies (a.k.a closed fuel cycle) are adopted. Intelligent Uranium Resource UtilizationNumber Four: Canada must move past its current archaic one-through fuel cycle and deep geological repository (DGR) design philosophy and embrace a closed fuel cycle as part of its long term uranium resource management plan.Canada’s current uranium resource utilization strategy is based upon a mere 1 weight % conversion of the inherent fuel potential in the unenriched uranium fuel passing once-through a CANDU reactor. After which, this barely utilized fuel is set aside for eventual long term storage in a DGR. After 30 years of stakeholder engagement, no long-term storage site has been selected and it is estimated that a DGR will cost taxpayers over $10 billion.Canada must reject the DGR concept by developing a closed fuel cycle.A closed uranium fuel cycle will expand the long-term energy potential of our conventional uranium resource by factors of 10 to 10. Russia, India, France and Japan are rapidly advancing this technological capability.Waste from closed fuel cycles could potentially be stored in simple low-cost Class C waste facilities that will have a radiological signature on par with background in a couple of centuries versus a few hundred thousand years with once-through fuel cycle waste. Do we spend $10 billion on a DGR, or $10 billion on the technology mix required to recycle/repurpose partially spent fuel for reuse in our nuclear fleet? If the latter approach expands our 30-year uranium resource into a +1,000 year supply of energy, the answer is straightforward.Note that at current rates of global energy consumption, conventional and unconventional reserves of uranium represent a near limitless source of primary energy.Advanced Nuclear Will Make Hydrocarbons LimitlessNumber Five: Advanced nuclear technologies will allow the economic production of synthetic fuels from the uranium, carbon and hydrogen contained in sea water.There is 1,000 times more uranium dissolved in sea water than in known geological reserves on land, and the oceans contain 50 times more dissolved inorganic carbon than the atmosphere.It only requires engineering innovation to economically harvest and refine this potential energy, carbon and hydrogen from sea water to create a near infinite synthetic hydrocarbon resource base. The scientific know-how exists.Imagine a future, where large ocean going nuclear powered refineries produce all our hydrocarbon feed-stock for fuels and plastics. A circular economy concept, with minimal environmental impact.Planning for Climate ChangeNumber Six: With ever increasing evidence that climatic changes, past and present, are largely due to natural processes, our best strategy is to invest in adaptation as a long-term strategy.Figure 1 highlights that just 1,000 years ago, stream-flow of the North Saskatchewan river was greatly reduced relative to the last century and was quite possibly a seasonal event. Winters were warmer and a near perennial state of drought existed over much of western North America and the Prairies were much more arid.With the Canadian Prairie region’s rapid population growth, a long-term strategy on water supply should include a serious consideration of diverting fresh water from Great Slave Lake and Lesser Slave Lake to South Central Alberta and Saskatchewan. The recent snow drought in the Rocky Mountains, together with the talk of a potential state of emergency being declared on water supply in Alberta, suggests that our existence is precarious in view of our ever-changing climate..Figure 1. 1,000 year reconstruction of climatic and hydrological variability of the eastern Rocky Mountains and North Saskatchewan River.Our prayer is that this simple act of defiance and alternative vision of our collective energy future will serve to catalyze a reformation on matters relating to energy and climate policy. Recall from history how the Protestant Reformation and Age of Enlightenment organically evolved following Martin Luther’s 95 theses that he published in defiance of the Holy Roman Catholic Church’s sale of Indulgences. As Martin Luther rallied against the sale of indulgences as a false path to achieving a state of righteousness in the eyes of God, we reject the notion that carbon credits or climate taxes will green-wash our carbon sins or save us from the perils of climate change.In summary, we must not and cannot permit mythical, unscrupulous net-zero energy policies to unduly and dangerously assault our national sovereignty, energy independence or impair our economic development and social well-being.Nuclear energy and the technological evolution of advanced fuel cycles, as well as small mobile nuclear reactors balanced in concert with our other plentiful supply of natural energy sources will pave the way to responsibly and sustainably power Canada’s future for centuries to come.
