If energy is not reliable and affordable, it has lost its utility. Wind, and solar are anything but reliable. So, when the power grid operator has to buy expensive power on short notice from natural gas fed back-up power plants to make up for windless days and the dead of night, up goes the price..Face it, alternative sources by their nature are inflationary. That is, given weather's chaotic nature, we should not be surprised by increasing electricity inflation and supply disruptions until our energy regulators force independent power developers to moderate their intermittent power production..This may come as a surprise. We are continuously told wind and solar are the cheapest source of new electricity. Yet over the past 5 years, Albertans have watched in horror as the market rate for electricity increased by 1000 % ($0.03 to $0.3 /kWh)..The answer is quite simple; we are paying both for the intermittent power plant — the windmills and the fields of solar panels — plus its idling gas-fired back-up. Two part-time power plants end up costing more than one that runs all the time..Wind energy is commonly put-forward as a solution to peak fossil fuels, and as a mitigation strategy to the risks of changing climatic conditions. But what's the evidence that as a resource, it is both long-term and stable?.Weather balloon data shows Western Canadian near-surface westerly wind speeds have varied by more than 200% between the 1960s and the 2000s. Making sense of any trend on this time series is akin to reading tea leaves but clearly, you can't assume wind speeds will be stable over the long haul.. Wind speedsAverage wind speeds for western Canada, over time. .So why are we even trying to depend on wind?.The pressure comes from two things. First, the Supreme Court of Canada has affirmed Ottawa’s jurisdiction over the provinces in mandating CO2 emission reductions. Likewise, we don’t have much time to implement Trudeau’s Paris Accord commitments..So, as the only thing left, wind and solar look attractive..One possible alternative however, is to use wind and solar in such a way that wind is balanced by solar. This has been the subject of numerous academic studies and is currently implemented in Europe.. Wind and solar compared .Here's how it is supposed to work. The graph above illustrates the daily and seasonal cycle’s control over average supply of energy from wind and solar power generation. The vertical axis is called Power Capacity and its units are percent. Thus, 100% is the nameplate factory maximum a unit can generate..The horizontal axis reflects that on average, the wind blows when it is dark and cold and the sun doesn't shine, while solar complements wind, when it is warm and light..Given that average peak daily power demand is between 4 and 8 pm, solar power trades at a premium to the daily average electric wholesale rate. Conversely, as peak wind power production occurs at night during periods of low demand, it commonly achieves a below average rate. Thus there is an economic advantage to balancing wind with solar..The problem in Alberta is that there's not enough installed solar power generation to do that..According to the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), the current nameplate factory power rating of Alberta’s wind power is 2,734 MW, but solar is only 1,088 MW. According to the AESO, Alberta’s wind power achieves 30%, and solar 15% annual average power capacity ratings, relative to their factory nameplates. When we apply these capacity ratings, the actual annual average power produced for wind and solar are 820 MW and 163 MW, respectively..Clearly, solar capacity in Alberta has a long way to go before it can balance wind on an average basis. And that's the problem: The weather is unpredictable. 'Average' weather doesn't exist, the charts indicate that sun and wind speeds are all over the place. Bottom line: If we truly want long term energy security, we should not be turning to the weather for energy..Solar and wind may indeed be the cheapest source of new electricity, but as long as they require excessive amounts of expensive back-up power, our utility bills will never again be affordable. It is time that we demand the reliability of power that conventional thermal power plants have given us for decades.
If energy is not reliable and affordable, it has lost its utility. Wind, and solar are anything but reliable. So, when the power grid operator has to buy expensive power on short notice from natural gas fed back-up power plants to make up for windless days and the dead of night, up goes the price..Face it, alternative sources by their nature are inflationary. That is, given weather's chaotic nature, we should not be surprised by increasing electricity inflation and supply disruptions until our energy regulators force independent power developers to moderate their intermittent power production..This may come as a surprise. We are continuously told wind and solar are the cheapest source of new electricity. Yet over the past 5 years, Albertans have watched in horror as the market rate for electricity increased by 1000 % ($0.03 to $0.3 /kWh)..The answer is quite simple; we are paying both for the intermittent power plant — the windmills and the fields of solar panels — plus its idling gas-fired back-up. Two part-time power plants end up costing more than one that runs all the time..Wind energy is commonly put-forward as a solution to peak fossil fuels, and as a mitigation strategy to the risks of changing climatic conditions. But what's the evidence that as a resource, it is both long-term and stable?.Weather balloon data shows Western Canadian near-surface westerly wind speeds have varied by more than 200% between the 1960s and the 2000s. Making sense of any trend on this time series is akin to reading tea leaves but clearly, you can't assume wind speeds will be stable over the long haul.. Wind speedsAverage wind speeds for western Canada, over time. .So why are we even trying to depend on wind?.The pressure comes from two things. First, the Supreme Court of Canada has affirmed Ottawa’s jurisdiction over the provinces in mandating CO2 emission reductions. Likewise, we don’t have much time to implement Trudeau’s Paris Accord commitments..So, as the only thing left, wind and solar look attractive..One possible alternative however, is to use wind and solar in such a way that wind is balanced by solar. This has been the subject of numerous academic studies and is currently implemented in Europe.. Wind and solar compared .Here's how it is supposed to work. The graph above illustrates the daily and seasonal cycle’s control over average supply of energy from wind and solar power generation. The vertical axis is called Power Capacity and its units are percent. Thus, 100% is the nameplate factory maximum a unit can generate..The horizontal axis reflects that on average, the wind blows when it is dark and cold and the sun doesn't shine, while solar complements wind, when it is warm and light..Given that average peak daily power demand is between 4 and 8 pm, solar power trades at a premium to the daily average electric wholesale rate. Conversely, as peak wind power production occurs at night during periods of low demand, it commonly achieves a below average rate. Thus there is an economic advantage to balancing wind with solar..The problem in Alberta is that there's not enough installed solar power generation to do that..According to the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), the current nameplate factory power rating of Alberta’s wind power is 2,734 MW, but solar is only 1,088 MW. According to the AESO, Alberta’s wind power achieves 30%, and solar 15% annual average power capacity ratings, relative to their factory nameplates. When we apply these capacity ratings, the actual annual average power produced for wind and solar are 820 MW and 163 MW, respectively..Clearly, solar capacity in Alberta has a long way to go before it can balance wind on an average basis. And that's the problem: The weather is unpredictable. 'Average' weather doesn't exist, the charts indicate that sun and wind speeds are all over the place. Bottom line: If we truly want long term energy security, we should not be turning to the weather for energy..Solar and wind may indeed be the cheapest source of new electricity, but as long as they require excessive amounts of expensive back-up power, our utility bills will never again be affordable. It is time that we demand the reliability of power that conventional thermal power plants have given us for decades.
