FORSETH: Trudeau knows energy transition can't be done by 2050, but it's his schtick, now

In Parliament, Justin Trudeau continues to talk about "fighting climate change" and "putting a price on pollution." He mistakenly believes he is on the same page as most Canadians. It's his central belief to justify the hurtful carbon tax. Superior-minded talking heads and even a basic internet search does indeed give the groupthink message that Canada is in a climate crisis. Moreover, the message to Canadians from the Liberal-NDP mind is that those who do not swallow their dogma are deniers and inferior people.However, voters know that Liberal environmental extremism is off base and not grounded in daily reality. The government's rhetoric and verbose plans and targets are realistically seen by average Canadians as political hot air. Scientific measurement and personal experience do not match the government's hot-air message. I previously wrote about political insincerity, fantasy targets, and plans that can never be realized in our national context.The environmental hyperbole goes like this: “Climate change is the most important crisis humanity has faced, but we still confront huge barriers to resolving it. So, what do we do, and is there hope for humanity? The problem itself is complex, and there’s no single solution. But by understanding the barriers to resolving global warming and by employing a wide range of solutions — from shifting to clean energy to planting trees to reforming agricultural practices — we can get the world back on track.” (Thus, David Suzuki.)The government website writes a fantasy that, sadly, our taxes pay for. "To avert the worst impacts of climate change, the Government of Canada is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This goal will require support and engagement from all parts of society, including provinces and territories, cities, Indigenous Peoples, youth, and businesses."Fortunately, there are saner professionals in our community, such as Professor Vaclav Smil, who recently published "Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome."Vaclav Smil is a distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba. He has published 50 books in 35 languages and more than 500 papers on interdisciplinary research.He evaluates carbon emission reductions and the feasibility of eliminating fossil fuels to achieve net-zero carbon by 2050. He documents that the plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050 is “unrealistic,” and Canada and other countries are “highly unlikely” to accomplish the transition by that date.Mr. Smil said the plan faces problems due to the cost of changing infrastructure, increasing mining for resources, and the need for countries to cover the price of helping low-income countries build new energy infrastructure.The plan to eliminate fossil fuels and achieve a net-zero economy faces formidable economic, political, and practical challenges. Canada and other high-income countries would need to spend at least 20 percent of their GDP to achieve the goal which is not politically acceptable.Ottawa proposes to achieve net zero by 2050, which means eliminating greenhouse gas emissions or offsetting emissions in other ways. The fantasy calls for a 40 — to 45 percent reduction in emissions.Mr. Smil said global consumption of fossil fuels increased 55 percent between 1997 and 2023, raising the question of how to transition away.The current energy networks are complex; their establishment and operation require constant maintenance and upgrading, and their costs are considerable. However, they are only one of many parts of the vastly more complex global energy system. That is why global energy transitions are complicated, multifaceted, protracted and in their details, somewhat unpredictable. The net-zero goal may be theoretically possible but is unrealistic.Due to the government's obsession with electric vehicles, switching is difficult due to the natural resources needed. The government's plan would require 40 times more lithium and up to 25 times more cobalt, nickel, and graphite, adding to the economic and environmental cost. The government has committed to making every taxpayer pay dearly for electric vehicles through massive subsidies. Replacing today’s 1.35 billion light-duty gasoline and diesel vehicles with EVs and supplying the expanded market (estimated at 2.2 billion cars by 2050) would thus require nearly 150 million tons of additional copper during the next 27 years. That is an equivalent of more than seven years of today’s annual copper extraction for all of the metal’s many industrial and commercial uses.Consequently, there is a political and social divide in Canada. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said that Ottawa’s oil and gas cap plan will end up in the Supreme Court of Canada. Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe said the federal government’s regulations would have serious economic consequences. Both provinces say Ottawa is overstepping with its net-zero plan, and both have passed legislation to confirm their provincial jurisdiction.To eliminate carbon emissions by 2050, governments face unprecedented technical, economic, and political challenges, making rapid and inexpensive transition impossible.In my view, the present fantasy goal is not worth the cost. Sensible and realizable policy choices can be made to both adapt to climate change and mitigate any human-caused excesses.Most Canadians are ahead of Trudeau in knowing the political myth making when they hear it.

FORSETH: Trudeau knows energy transition can't be done by 2050, but it's his schtick, now

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