Against (almost) all odds, Danielle Smith and her United Conservative Party have emerged victorious from the biggest political knife fight in Alberta's history. .The party lost seats and was given a real run for its money from Rachel Notley's NDP. This isn't something that's supposed to happen in Alberta. Conservatives are supposed to win here by default. That was the logic behind the 2017 merger of the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties. But things have changed that made this election so competitive. .Challenges facing the UCP.Conservatives have long complained about a liberal or leftist bias against them, sometimes with merit. Sometimes without much of it. But this time, the legacy media was almost universally in the tank for Rachel Notley, or at least against Danielle Smith. Alberta has until recently had at least some conservative-leaning legacy media outlets. That is clearly no longer the case. With the lone exceptions of columnists Lorne Gunter and Rick Bell at the Edmonton and Calgary Sun papers respectively, there was almost blanket hostility in the federally-funded newsrooms of Alberta. .Whenever Smith or a UCP candidate had a controversial comment from their past, it was given front-page coverage. Which is fine. But similar coverage was not granted to NDP candidates. Look no further than the universal media silence of the four — count em four — NDP candidates who promoted communism or were members of the Communist Party. Similar connections of a single UCP candidate to fascism would have garnered national headlines and caused a complete campaign meltdown. .Despite it all, the UCP managed to claw its way through the muck. .Most polling shows that visible minorities strongly lean to the NDP, and Alberta continues to attract large numbers of international migrants. This will naturally tilt the field to left-leaning parties unless conservatives manage to bring them back into the tent in larger numbers. .Perhaps as importantly is Eastern Canadian migration. Many a young man heading West comes to Alberta to share in its Prairie, individualist ethos. But I (anecdotally) suspect that a great many bring their political and social values with them. The more Easterners in Alberta, the more Alberta's politics may come to resemble the East. .Beginning in 2015, the NDP has been consolidating the so-called "progressive" vote behind it; no merger necessary. In that election, they swallowed the Liberals, and in 2019, fully digested them. This time around, they appear to have devoured the remains of the once hopeful Alberta Party, putting an end to that party's ever-hopeful dreams of breaking through. .How the UCP, Smith pulled it off.Perhaps the dominant narrative of the election has been that Danielle Smith is a liability and dragging the UCP brand down. Some of her past controversial remarks were doubtless unhelpful to the UCP cause, but I tend to take a wider view of things. .A little over a year ago, the UCP under former premier Jason Kenney was polling far — very far — behind the NDP. The upstart Wildrose Independence Party was eating their lunch with Alberta sovereigntist and populist voters on the right. If that configuration had continued — or, as is likely, accelerated — the UCP would have had almost no chance of winning tonight. Those voter blocks were angry at the UCP and not its friend, not so long ago. .Smith was able to firmly bring these voter blocks back into the UCP fold, a clear prerequisite to any UCP win. She did this mostly during her leadership campaign, and softened some of her stances soon after securing a win. She has managed to keep them happy for now despite this, but they will be expecting more than a wink and a nod after election night, and will be key to her retaining the party leadership. .What the UCP win means.The UCP ran a rather bland campaign, mostly focused on counter-attacking NDP messaging around Smith's unfitness to lead. It was a defensive strategy, but it worked. .But what does this mean for Alberta going forward, and the broader conservative movement in Canada? .In Alberta, the UCP's victory heralds the first genuinely populist government since Ralph Klein's first win in 1993. Smith may have not put some of her more controversial Alberta-first/anti-Ottawa measures in the front window, but the NDP's insistence on highlighting them gives the UCP a mandate to act on them. .Albertans have now voted for a government that passed the Sovereignty Act, and that intends to replace federal institutions like the RCMP and CPP with an Alberta police force and an Alberta pension plan. The Canada Revenue Agency will also likely be reducing its Alberta operations as we likely go the way of Quebec (and now Saskatchewan) in collecting our own taxes. .None of this is likely to reduce Ottawa's animosity toward Alberta as the battle escalates from non-binding referendums on equalization, to the tangible disentangling of federal authority over Alberta. .Pierre Poilievre could draw several different conclusions from this election. He may look at a United Conservative Party not winning by nearly the margin that the federal Conservatives do, and conclude that there are no good lessons to be learned here. Alternatively, he may see in this vindication of his own populist message. Dealers choice..The Leadership Question.The last time an Alberta Conservative premier finished a full term was Ralph Klein in 2004. A child born that year is now old enough to vote, drink, and die for his country. In fact, the last time an Alberta Conservative premier left office without being forced out by either their party or the electorate was Peter Lougheed in 1985, the year yours truly was born. .This is all to say that Alberta conservatives have a habit of eating their leaders, and it appears to have become an increasingly frequent meal. Some factions within the UCP are openly unhappy with Smith and will likely do their best to see her to the slaughter house at the earliest available opportunity. If history is any indication, they may well succeed. .But that all depends on how conservatives contextualize their victory. .In 1993, Klein lost eight seats to the Liberals under Laurence Decore, but it was dubbed the "Miracle on the Prairies" when the PCs won with their reduced majority. They lost seats, but they were supposed to lose power. .That sounds an awful lot like what happened tonight. .A year ago, the UCP was headed for a historic defeat. Tonight, they emerge with a mandate for a more independent, and free Alberta.
