FILDEBRANDT: Smith could be a historic premier, if UCP members back her

Alberta United Conservative Party members are gathering in Red Deer right now for their annual pow-wow. They’ll vote on the usual suite of policies, resolutions and party-tweeks. But the big item on the agenda is the leadership review vote on Premier Danielle Smith. The days of Alberta’s one-party state — where only an internal party putsch could oust a leader — are over. Still, Jim Prentice remains the only conservative premier in Alberta’s history to be defeated by the left. Nearly every other (nominally) conservative premier that has been forced from office, has been pushed out by internal forces. Caucus pushed out Don Getty, Ed Stelmach, and Alison Redford. The membership pushed out Ralph Klein and Jason Kenney in leadership review votes. Some of them deserved to get the boot, and others were named Ralph Klein. And now, this Saturday, it is the turn of Danielle Smith to face judgement. She will take to the stage and make her case to the more than 6,000 UCP members who have showed up to have their say. It’s a curiously… massive number to show up. It is by far the largest political convention in Canadian history, federally or provincially. Does this hefty headcount portend trouble for the premier? Maybe. High turnout in general elections normally bodes poorly for incumbents, but this is a convention of party members. Just as possible is that it reflects genuine enthusiasm for Smith and the direction of her government. We will know the answer to that question by Saturday evening. Judging by the vibes on the convention floor, Smith looks to be in relatively good shape. Most delegates seem to back her, but there is a minority that wants her head.The 1905 Committee is a small group dedicated to beating her at the leadership review vote. They’ve been running an online campaign against her since the summer, coupled with a few in-person events. They’ve handed out a double-sided flyer making the case that Smith has failed seven points: tax cuts, immigration, spending, sole-sourced contracting, COVID-19 vaccine policies, accountability, and the fuel tax rebate. Interestingly, the flyer is fairly toned down from the language the group has used in its online missives against the premier. It’s hard not to get the impression from their flyer, that they are more aggressive online than face-to-face. That does not go for David Parker, who’s own flyer is characteristically aggressive. Parker came to prominence as the leader of Take Back Alberta during the campaign to take down Jason Kenney, and kept his organization moving in support of Danielle Smith’s leadership. But, the warm feels that he had for her in 2022 seem to be all gone. He’s been on the outs with Smith and her office since some ill-advised comments made two years ago. The frontal assualt on Smith is a big gamble for Parker. His influence has been frequently noted in the media. If Smith gets a poor number, his reputation will be burnished. But if Smith comes out north of 75%, Take Back Alberta will be seen as a spent force. Parker’s ‘UCP Report Card’ distributed on the convention floor focuses exclusively on five COVID-19 issues, ranking her performance between an F and a C. He gives her a D overall. It’s a curious grade for a premier who is arguably the most radically anti-lockdown and anti-mandate head of government in North America. There are a few areas were she could be stronger, but a D? Really? I just don’t see it. Smith’s government has been far from perfect. They botched the communications around moving from Ottawa’s CPP to an Alberta Pension Plan. They have failed to control spending, and as yet, have not delivered on the promised income tax cut. Those are policies in the negative column. The plus column is noticeably longer: the Sovereignty Act, suing Ottawa over carbon tax unfairness, fighting Ottawa’s oil and gas cap, a rational, balanced and brave gender-identity policy, a new Alberta Bill of Rights, breaking up the AHS monopoly, reworking the Calgary Greenline debacle, and aggressive promotion of choice in education. When Kenney’s leadership came under fire, his critics could point to a roster of more conservative options to replace him. Danielle Smith’s critics cannot. Whatever her shortcomings, there is no fierce, more-conservative option waiting in the wings. More likely than not, a race to replace Smith right now would see a mushier, less stridently-conservative candidate succeed her. Governments that change leadership mid-term tend to turn to “safe” options, not revolutionary ones. Smith is the revolutionary candidate. She has shifted the Overton window of acceptable political debate not just in Alberta, but across Canada. And importantly, she has no ambitions whatever on federal office. Smith is the most Alberta-first premier that Alberta has ever had. It is highly doubtful that anyone who could realistically replace her would be more single-mindedly focused on righting Alberta’s place in confederation. I’ve got my gripes with Smith, but they are more than outweighed by the strong force that she has been for justice, prosperity and freedom in Alberta. UCP members would be mad to throw it away right now.

FILDEBRANDT: Smith could be a historic premier, if UCP members back her

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