Imagine going to bed Friday night in Toronto. The weekend is ahead of you with plans to spend some time with family, visit friends, household chores like washing clothes and some grocery shopping.. Khartoum 1Khartoum, Sudan... a modern city now beset by civil war as rival factions strive for power. According to Calgary businessman Jeff Callaway, the situation is deteriorating and as many as 16 million people could be facing starvation there this summer. .Instead, you are awakened by the sound of gunfire, artillery and fighter planes passing overhead. It’s early in the day so you gather your family in your ground floor apartment away from the windows. However, trying to assess the situation, you peek out the window only to see a handful of Ontario Provincial Police walking down the street with big guns shooting in the direction of a neighbours house. Then boom, an artillery shell hits close by and dust is strewn everywhere. The electricity shuts off. You take your scared child to the bathroom, but now there is no water..As your family is in a state of shock a couple members of the Canadian Armed Forces burst in the back door so they can find a better vantage point. They take a few shots from your door before they retreat out the back again. After the shock passes you assess the situation. How do you get your family out?.This is Sudan..I was in Khartoum in early March. The people were incredibly hospitable, generous, and all desirous of a transition from the military government, (power shared between the Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces or RSF), to a civilian government on April 11. This was likely to be delayed, but was on track to occur in the near term. The RSF were originally organized, trained and effectively spun out of the Sudanese Armed Forces..Their leader, General Hemedti, is a semi-literate tribesman from the Darfur region of Sudan. He became leader of the Janjaweed militia, (a precursor to the RSF,) that committed the most atrocities, (rape, shootings, torture, etc), but had the support of the Sudanese Army in the region commanded by General al-Burhan..The Janjaweed’s purpose was to prevent the independence movement of the region. At the same time his business interests began to grow into gold mining and trading, smuggling, providing soldiers for hire in the Yemeni and Libyan wars, and other businesses, however acquired..Those business interests have questionable origins, questionable business partners, (such as the vicious Russian Wagner group which is involved in gold mining and smuggling in Sudan with Hemedti), and could very well be at risk of being lost under a civilian government. The business interests funded the RSF, that numbers more than 100,000 soldiers. Recruiting members is easy. Any amount of money is more than the nothing a rural Sudanese may have to survive on..Up until Friday night April 14th everything seemed on track for a peaceful transition to a civilian government. The US re-opened its embassy and dropped commercial sanctions..It might have signalled a change from the 70% of the government budget that is directed towards the armed forces (numbering more than 150,000) and security services in Sudan, (despite official statistics.) General al-Burhan, the de facto military leader of the country, (and also the Armed Forces commander in the Darfur region of Sudan that committed atrocities as well,) at least appeared to be trying — with the involvement of the UN, US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt — to facilitate a transition to a civilian government while working with a variety of political parties and the RSF, (General Hemedti was al-Burhan’s deputy of the Sovereign Council that governed the country)..It was never simple, but the path looked promising. Hemedti instead chose war..Each side makes claims against the other. The RSF repeatedly says it's fighting against Islamist interests in Sudan, (Sudan is 92% Islamic), supported by the former regime, (also accused of many war crimes), while the Armed Forces claim the RSF is trying to seize control of the country..General Hemedti claims General al-Burhan is leading a coup and is a criminal. General al-Burhan calls the RSF 'rebel terrorists' and won’t stop until Hemedti is arrested and put on trial..Each side has more than 100,000 soldiers, but the army has planes, tanks and heavy artillery. Hemedti, with lengthy battlefield experience fighting sustenance level peasants and trained armies — not just in Sudan — is adopting a classic strategy when outgunned: fight in the cities to take away the superior firepower advantage and cripple infrastructure, such as airports. Blend in with civilians and utilize social media for propaganda purposes. While fighting is all over the country, it's particularly focused in Khartoum with a special emphasis on government buildings and the airport..Several cease fires have been announced or “agreed to,” but they last the length of time it takes to reload a gun. The current cease fire merely represents a lull in certain areas of the main fighting. The “lull” allowed foreigners and some civilians to flee Khartoum, (a city close in population to Metro Toronto)..It is hard to fathom for a Canadian. You can’t go outside or you could be shot. You can’t go to the airport because it is a battleground and the RSF destroyed the planes. The runway can’t be used. If you try to drive away you will have to get through multiple fronts and check stops by either the army or the RSF militia. Your water supplies are dwindling. With no electricity your food is spoiling..Prices are skyrocketing, (in some cases 10 times), for phone cards, fuel and food — if you can find it. You risk your life to go out to get it. Fortunately you find a bus convoy to get you to Egypt. The cost is 10 times what it normally is and takes three days. But be careful, more than 20,000 jail inmates have now broken out into the streets looking for food and water..I know this because that's what happened to one of the most impressive women I have ever met. Her home was her pride. Five weeks later it was a battleground. For others I know in Sudan, I can only hope they're as lucky and are not one of the more than 500 dead and over 5,000 injured. Both estimates are likely low: how do you count dead bodies in the streets?.Sudan has a sad history over the past several years, but appeared to be on a slowly improving track over the past decade. While the tragedy of Darfur should never be forgotten, the people of Khartoum seemed blissfully confident that IF there was any armed fighting it would never come to Khartoum. Because it never had before..No longer..Sudan is a country with tremendous potential in agriculture, mining, and energy. Canada and Sudan could have a strong economic relationship given the experience Canadians can bring to Sudan once this conflict ends and stability is returned to the region. Khartoum is full of educational institutes and numerous medical facilities, although many are shut down, shot up, or bombed out, but represent Sudanese desire for a better quality of life..Fortunately, it does not appear other nations are overtly supporting one side or the other. Bullets and shells will eventually run low. This appears to be a fight to the death with only one winner. A negotiated peace only reinstates the prior status quo leading to a future violent collision..The international community is now stepping up with pleas for peace, but as each evacuate the country to watch from the sidelines, it leaves the warring factions free to act with impunity. The only consequence to those warring factions is losing the war. All the charges of war crimes in the past have led to no prosecution. At worst a cushy jail cell and those people are now roaming the streets. So how concerned are they about international calls for peace?.And for those actors who don’t care as much about borders, (such as Russia’s Wagner group), they will have the ability to fill the power vacuum to supply the war effort. There are no easy answers..A week before I arrived in Khartoum the World Food Program put out a report indicating more than a third of Sudanese would be food “insecure” this summer. That's code for starvation, or close to it. That's nearly 16 million people or roughly every single person in Ontario. Given the conflict is sure to rise as tens of thousands are now streaming over the borders into Ethiopia, Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan. That will lead to desperation and desperation breeds instability and violence..The Sudanese people deserve better. I hope the world, (individuals and governments), will treat them with the hospitality, generosity, and kindness they showed me.
Imagine going to bed Friday night in Toronto. The weekend is ahead of you with plans to spend some time with family, visit friends, household chores like washing clothes and some grocery shopping.. Khartoum 1Khartoum, Sudan... a modern city now beset by civil war as rival factions strive for power. According to Calgary businessman Jeff Callaway, the situation is deteriorating and as many as 16 million people could be facing starvation there this summer. .Instead, you are awakened by the sound of gunfire, artillery and fighter planes passing overhead. It’s early in the day so you gather your family in your ground floor apartment away from the windows. However, trying to assess the situation, you peek out the window only to see a handful of Ontario Provincial Police walking down the street with big guns shooting in the direction of a neighbours house. Then boom, an artillery shell hits close by and dust is strewn everywhere. The electricity shuts off. You take your scared child to the bathroom, but now there is no water..As your family is in a state of shock a couple members of the Canadian Armed Forces burst in the back door so they can find a better vantage point. They take a few shots from your door before they retreat out the back again. After the shock passes you assess the situation. How do you get your family out?.This is Sudan..I was in Khartoum in early March. The people were incredibly hospitable, generous, and all desirous of a transition from the military government, (power shared between the Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces or RSF), to a civilian government on April 11. This was likely to be delayed, but was on track to occur in the near term. The RSF were originally organized, trained and effectively spun out of the Sudanese Armed Forces..Their leader, General Hemedti, is a semi-literate tribesman from the Darfur region of Sudan. He became leader of the Janjaweed militia, (a precursor to the RSF,) that committed the most atrocities, (rape, shootings, torture, etc), but had the support of the Sudanese Army in the region commanded by General al-Burhan..The Janjaweed’s purpose was to prevent the independence movement of the region. At the same time his business interests began to grow into gold mining and trading, smuggling, providing soldiers for hire in the Yemeni and Libyan wars, and other businesses, however acquired..Those business interests have questionable origins, questionable business partners, (such as the vicious Russian Wagner group which is involved in gold mining and smuggling in Sudan with Hemedti), and could very well be at risk of being lost under a civilian government. The business interests funded the RSF, that numbers more than 100,000 soldiers. Recruiting members is easy. Any amount of money is more than the nothing a rural Sudanese may have to survive on..Up until Friday night April 14th everything seemed on track for a peaceful transition to a civilian government. The US re-opened its embassy and dropped commercial sanctions..It might have signalled a change from the 70% of the government budget that is directed towards the armed forces (numbering more than 150,000) and security services in Sudan, (despite official statistics.) General al-Burhan, the de facto military leader of the country, (and also the Armed Forces commander in the Darfur region of Sudan that committed atrocities as well,) at least appeared to be trying — with the involvement of the UN, US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt — to facilitate a transition to a civilian government while working with a variety of political parties and the RSF, (General Hemedti was al-Burhan’s deputy of the Sovereign Council that governed the country)..It was never simple, but the path looked promising. Hemedti instead chose war..Each side makes claims against the other. The RSF repeatedly says it's fighting against Islamist interests in Sudan, (Sudan is 92% Islamic), supported by the former regime, (also accused of many war crimes), while the Armed Forces claim the RSF is trying to seize control of the country..General Hemedti claims General al-Burhan is leading a coup and is a criminal. General al-Burhan calls the RSF 'rebel terrorists' and won’t stop until Hemedti is arrested and put on trial..Each side has more than 100,000 soldiers, but the army has planes, tanks and heavy artillery. Hemedti, with lengthy battlefield experience fighting sustenance level peasants and trained armies — not just in Sudan — is adopting a classic strategy when outgunned: fight in the cities to take away the superior firepower advantage and cripple infrastructure, such as airports. Blend in with civilians and utilize social media for propaganda purposes. While fighting is all over the country, it's particularly focused in Khartoum with a special emphasis on government buildings and the airport..Several cease fires have been announced or “agreed to,” but they last the length of time it takes to reload a gun. The current cease fire merely represents a lull in certain areas of the main fighting. The “lull” allowed foreigners and some civilians to flee Khartoum, (a city close in population to Metro Toronto)..It is hard to fathom for a Canadian. You can’t go outside or you could be shot. You can’t go to the airport because it is a battleground and the RSF destroyed the planes. The runway can’t be used. If you try to drive away you will have to get through multiple fronts and check stops by either the army or the RSF militia. Your water supplies are dwindling. With no electricity your food is spoiling..Prices are skyrocketing, (in some cases 10 times), for phone cards, fuel and food — if you can find it. You risk your life to go out to get it. Fortunately you find a bus convoy to get you to Egypt. The cost is 10 times what it normally is and takes three days. But be careful, more than 20,000 jail inmates have now broken out into the streets looking for food and water..I know this because that's what happened to one of the most impressive women I have ever met. Her home was her pride. Five weeks later it was a battleground. For others I know in Sudan, I can only hope they're as lucky and are not one of the more than 500 dead and over 5,000 injured. Both estimates are likely low: how do you count dead bodies in the streets?.Sudan has a sad history over the past several years, but appeared to be on a slowly improving track over the past decade. While the tragedy of Darfur should never be forgotten, the people of Khartoum seemed blissfully confident that IF there was any armed fighting it would never come to Khartoum. Because it never had before..No longer..Sudan is a country with tremendous potential in agriculture, mining, and energy. Canada and Sudan could have a strong economic relationship given the experience Canadians can bring to Sudan once this conflict ends and stability is returned to the region. Khartoum is full of educational institutes and numerous medical facilities, although many are shut down, shot up, or bombed out, but represent Sudanese desire for a better quality of life..Fortunately, it does not appear other nations are overtly supporting one side or the other. Bullets and shells will eventually run low. This appears to be a fight to the death with only one winner. A negotiated peace only reinstates the prior status quo leading to a future violent collision..The international community is now stepping up with pleas for peace, but as each evacuate the country to watch from the sidelines, it leaves the warring factions free to act with impunity. The only consequence to those warring factions is losing the war. All the charges of war crimes in the past have led to no prosecution. At worst a cushy jail cell and those people are now roaming the streets. So how concerned are they about international calls for peace?.And for those actors who don’t care as much about borders, (such as Russia’s Wagner group), they will have the ability to fill the power vacuum to supply the war effort. There are no easy answers..A week before I arrived in Khartoum the World Food Program put out a report indicating more than a third of Sudanese would be food “insecure” this summer. That's code for starvation, or close to it. That's nearly 16 million people or roughly every single person in Ontario. Given the conflict is sure to rise as tens of thousands are now streaming over the borders into Ethiopia, Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan. That will lead to desperation and desperation breeds instability and violence..The Sudanese people deserve better. I hope the world, (individuals and governments), will treat them with the hospitality, generosity, and kindness they showed me.
