BARBER: Canada’s immigration, a problem now and a nightmare soon

Multiple sources report that Canada’s immigration policy is to accept half-a-million new immigrants annually. The alleged reasons are to strengthen the economy, reunite families, and help refugees. Most of these new arrivals are supposedly justified because we need more economic growth. Even though the Trudeau government was warned that such numbers would strain our housing and health care systems, it has proven to also strain school systems and provincial budgets. Opposition Leader Pierre Poillievre consistently pounds the PM on the problems his immigration policy is generating in Canada. This, and an approaching election, has the PM is finally promising to do something. But watch out for the minute the election is over if his party retains power.Other commentators have offered more realistic evaluations and offered suspicious motivations for the high numbers. I will point to something far more worrying in the future. We already know that many, perhaps most, of the new arrivals are not prepared to significantly contribute to Canada’s highly competitive job market. A market where sophisticated skill sets, and advanced education are the norm. These individuals will frequently occupy the lower level of the economic ladder and need to be supported by the state. If they are drawing from and not contributing to the tax base, this of course means that those Canadians who are competitive will have to support higher taxes. Calgary is already pushing to increase city taxes specifically to provide services to new-comers. But things are going to get worse.As reported in Supply Chain Today, robots are already replacing humans in the fast-food industry. Order taking, food prep, packaging, delivery, and cleaning can now be automated. AI can replace supply-chain (white collar) workers, ChatGPT can write code, AI will also have an impact on the legal profession, many service industry workers will be laid off and so much more bad news is coming. The OECD is estimating that 14% of jobs in developed countries are at high risk for displacement in the near run. Tesla is planning to have operational “Optimus” a humanoid robot for internal use next year and the following year for commercial use. Although it will probably be some years before “bots” are as capable as humans in every endeavor, the writing is on the wall. Even police work is not going to be spared. In Texas, a suspect used various means including shooting, trying to escape but a police robot penned him down and held him on Sept. 19. Retuning to immigration, with AI and automation already replacing workers, and the bots coming off the assembly line, where is the need to millions of low skilled workers in the Canadian economy? Our government is going to be hard pressed with the initial wave of 14% displacement of Canadians over the next few years adding a few million more people who need to seek new positions will overwhelm the employment system. That will send shockwaves through our medical, educational, and various assistance programs. In addition, people without adequate employment cannot make house payments and so drive the market down, meaning that retirees will not have the nest egg they planned on. Also, a surplus of workers will drive wages down. Although there are other considerations, one more is worth mentioning. People not working raises the question as to where the government will get all the money needed. It won’t be collecting the income tax planned for fund programs. You cannot throw robots in jail for tax evasion and if you tax companies, they can take their robots and go elsewhere.We need people in government who can plan for both the short and the long term of our society and not just try to cling to political power in the next cycle.Dr. A.W. Barber is the former Director of Asian Studies at the University of Calgary. He is internationally active and has wide-ranging interests.

BARBER: Canada’s immigration, a problem now and a nightmare soon

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