Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Latvia Monday promised to gradually increase Canada’s military footprint in the Baltic country by 1,200 personnel over the next three years..In theory, by 2026 this would bring Canada’s total troop commitment to Op REASSURANCE to 2,200 soldiers..NATO should really be asking Trudeau, “Oh yeah, you and literally what army?”.While it’s true that Canada managed to regularly deploy nearly 3,000 troops to Afghanistan at the peak of the war, today's Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is but a shadow of that once formidable fighting force..The goal of 2,200 personnel deployed to Camp Adazi in Latvia is an optimistic one at best, but more likely, just another broken defence commitment on Canada’s shabby record. .The promise made is a considerable one, and the figure of 1,200 personnel was no doubt contrived by CAF and DND strategic planners in Ottawa. Granted, it’s not totally unreasonable to assume that the number was picked at random by a political staffer simply because it sounded good..Regardless, whether it was the result of sycophantic officers nodding dutifully to their generals, or the machinations of an overzealous politician, it has all the characteristics of a Trudeau promise — big, bold, and a long timeline to achieve and for people to forget..Just like the long-foretold balanced budgets the Liberals promised which never materialized, neither will the troops for this mission. .As it stands, the CAF’s largest and most pressing hurdle to achieve this new and looming task is a shortage of personnel. .The CAF has all but lost the ability to retain existing members while simultaneously bungling its capacity to recruit replacements..In fact, recent data from the government reported on by Blacklock’s Reporter just a few days ago indicated that CAF recruiting is down by 35% compared to the previous year..Without the necessary personnel, a long term and ongoing deployment is going to cause incredible damage to the CAF and will exacerbate the retention issue. .The next significant obstacle is that the news of a permanent and ongoing deployment to Latvia will be about as alluring to soldiers and their families as an audit of your taxes by the CRA..That is to say not very glamorous at all. It will undoubtedly cause a detrimental departure of personnel from our already undermanned combat brigades..Here’s why..Despite what some will say, Op REASSURANCE is a different type of deployment than Afghanistan, Bosnia, and others. It’s essentially one big training mission, no different than when our soldiers exercise their skills here in Canada..In fact, having talked with a few soldiers who’ve deployed to Latvia, they mentioned Camp Adazi has earned the moniker of ‘Shilo East’. This is a desultory reference to the unpleasant similarities between it and the harsh training grounds at Canadian Forces Base Shilo in Manitoba..But to be fair to our men and women in uniform, I actually think that this type of mission may be more mentally challenging than the other deployments I mentioned..The personal and familial sacrifices to deploy on a mission take astonishing tolls on both the member and their loved ones. Op REASSURANCE is no different in this regard..But it is worse when you know you are going to repeatedly deploy to the same place over and over just to attack and defend against the same simulated enemy forces, in the same training area, again and again, and again. .For many this will not be a sufficient professional or challenging offset for all the sacrifices on the home front. It’s different when you’re putting those skills to use against an enemy, facing danger, adventure, and the unknown daily. .Many members will come to that conclusion on their own, and they will join the others already releasing from the CAF in droves..That said, the primary difference between the mission in Latvia and what our soldiers might do on the training grounds of Wainwright, AB, is that they will participate alongside other NATO forces..Without a doubt there is great value in developing that interoperability. Unfortunately, it will also serve as a reminder as to just how poorly equipped our soldiers are when they see the high-quality gear their NATO comrades are using..Nothing says sign me up for another deployment like having to buy your own kit just to remain relevant..Lastly, everything else the CAF does, or could do will be placed on the back burner to support this large-scale deployment. .The Navy, which lacked attention during the decade in Afghanistan, will continue to decline as the focus once again shifts to an Army centric mission. This couldn’t come at worse time for the Royal Canadian Navy as new Arctic Offshore Patrol ships come online and its fleet of frigates require more crew to operate and maintain them..The Air Force will shuttle people and supplies to the mission, but it will result in countless extra hours on airframes that are already bordering on antique status. This in turn translates to four to six times as many hours of maintenance just to keep them airworthy..The outcome will be a crushing increase in workload for a Royal Canadian Air Force that is scrambling to modernize its fleet with a dearth of technicians. .Then there is the Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which has been deployed many times to countries stricken by natural disaster. The DART won’t ever deploy again while the brigade is stood up in Europe..This is a real pity because it is a bright and shining star in the CAF’s and Canada’s ability to project its image and values in the world while making a real difference in the lives of thousands who need it most..Canada needed to up its game within NATO and in the eyes of its allies, but this was the worst possible course of action. It’s a low risk, low impact deployment which will only further degrade the CAF during a time that it needs to consolidate, re-equip and refocus. .Essentially Trudeau just committed all our eggs into one basket and he’s hoping that NATO doesn’t count his chickens before they hatch, or rather, the eggs crack.
