Home sales on MLS Systems in Canada dropped 3% in January from December, with gains in Hamilton-Burlington and Quebec City more than offset by declines in Greater Vancouver, Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal..Year-over-year, sales were down 37.1% from January 2022, which was the second-best January on record, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)..“The big question on everyone's’ minds after last year was what will housing markets do in 2023?” says Jill Oudil, chair of CREA. “We may have to wait another month or two to see what buyers are planning since new listings are currently at near-record low levels, but that should change as the weather warms.” .Rishi Sondhi, an economist with TD Economics, forecasts listings will continue to fall through the first quarter of 2023, amid subdued sales and falling prices. .“Thereafter, we expect resale supply to climb as the market finds its bottom. According to our forecast released in December, listings are expected to increase by 7% over the second quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter, before slowing to a more modest 2% growth pace in 2024,” says Sondhi..“It should be noted since we finalized our last housing forecast, a plunge in listings was revealed in the month of December. As such, the data potentially sets up for an even steeper climb than our projection anticipates.”.Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, says 2023 feels like 2019. .“In 2019 the market started off slow, as there wasn’t much to buy. It took off once spring listings started to come out,” says Cathcart. “With the Bank of Canada increasingly signaling that rates are now at the top, it’s possible the spring market this year could also surprise, particularly in areas where prices have been stable or are now stabilizing.” .“Buyers are likely feeling increasingly confident in taking on variable rate mortgages and 2023 will probably be a good window of opportunity to be able to engage in a calmer home search and buying experience following the intense market conditions of the last few years.”.“New listings did show a small jump of 3.3% on a month-over-month basis in January, led by increases across British Columbia. That said, despite the small increase, nationally new listings remain historically low. New supply in January 2023 hit the lowest level for that month since 2000.”.Nationally, there were 4.3 months of inventory at the end of January, close to where it was in the months leading up to the initial COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, and still close to a month below its long-term average of about five months..The Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was down 1.9% on a month-over-month basis in January, now sitting 15% below its peak level, reached in February 2022. Looking across the country, prices are down from peak levels by more than they are nationally in many parts of Ontario and some parts of BC, and down by less elsewhere. .While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, and St. John’s stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks..“The Aggregate Composite MLS HPI was down 12.6% from January last year, with CREA expecting year-over-year declines likely to hit their highest levels over the next two months as we move past the highest price levels on record in February and March of last year,” says Cathcart..“An interesting development in recent months has been an increasing number of East Coast markets where prices appear to have bottomed out on a month-to-month basis and are now trending back up.”.The national average home price was $612,204 in January, down 18.3% from January last year..The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area, Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation cuts almost $113,000 from the national average price..Cathcart offers his view of what to expect in 2023..“Looking ahead, the shock factor from the Bank of Canada's effort to control inflation will be fading and the uncertainty about where costs will ultimately land is also likely to wind down in the next few months,” he says. “If that happens it should bring some people off the sidelines this spring.”.“The theme of this year’s forecast is not a recovery yet, but the start of a turn around after a crazy 2022, so we're forecasting a half-percent decline for national sales in 2023.”.It's the same for prices, says Cathcart..“The price is forecast to decline 5.9% in 2023 compared to 2022 but the thing is, that has already happened in the 2022 monthly data,” he says..“That's in the past, so prices will firm up over the course of 2023.”
Home sales on MLS Systems in Canada dropped 3% in January from December, with gains in Hamilton-Burlington and Quebec City more than offset by declines in Greater Vancouver, Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal..Year-over-year, sales were down 37.1% from January 2022, which was the second-best January on record, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)..“The big question on everyone's’ minds after last year was what will housing markets do in 2023?” says Jill Oudil, chair of CREA. “We may have to wait another month or two to see what buyers are planning since new listings are currently at near-record low levels, but that should change as the weather warms.” .Rishi Sondhi, an economist with TD Economics, forecasts listings will continue to fall through the first quarter of 2023, amid subdued sales and falling prices. .“Thereafter, we expect resale supply to climb as the market finds its bottom. According to our forecast released in December, listings are expected to increase by 7% over the second quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter, before slowing to a more modest 2% growth pace in 2024,” says Sondhi..“It should be noted since we finalized our last housing forecast, a plunge in listings was revealed in the month of December. As such, the data potentially sets up for an even steeper climb than our projection anticipates.”.Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, says 2023 feels like 2019. .“In 2019 the market started off slow, as there wasn’t much to buy. It took off once spring listings started to come out,” says Cathcart. “With the Bank of Canada increasingly signaling that rates are now at the top, it’s possible the spring market this year could also surprise, particularly in areas where prices have been stable or are now stabilizing.” .“Buyers are likely feeling increasingly confident in taking on variable rate mortgages and 2023 will probably be a good window of opportunity to be able to engage in a calmer home search and buying experience following the intense market conditions of the last few years.”.“New listings did show a small jump of 3.3% on a month-over-month basis in January, led by increases across British Columbia. That said, despite the small increase, nationally new listings remain historically low. New supply in January 2023 hit the lowest level for that month since 2000.”.Nationally, there were 4.3 months of inventory at the end of January, close to where it was in the months leading up to the initial COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, and still close to a month below its long-term average of about five months..The Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was down 1.9% on a month-over-month basis in January, now sitting 15% below its peak level, reached in February 2022. Looking across the country, prices are down from peak levels by more than they are nationally in many parts of Ontario and some parts of BC, and down by less elsewhere. .While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, and St. John’s stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks..“The Aggregate Composite MLS HPI was down 12.6% from January last year, with CREA expecting year-over-year declines likely to hit their highest levels over the next two months as we move past the highest price levels on record in February and March of last year,” says Cathcart..“An interesting development in recent months has been an increasing number of East Coast markets where prices appear to have bottomed out on a month-to-month basis and are now trending back up.”.The national average home price was $612,204 in January, down 18.3% from January last year..The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area, Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation cuts almost $113,000 from the national average price..Cathcart offers his view of what to expect in 2023..“Looking ahead, the shock factor from the Bank of Canada's effort to control inflation will be fading and the uncertainty about where costs will ultimately land is also likely to wind down in the next few months,” he says. “If that happens it should bring some people off the sidelines this spring.”.“The theme of this year’s forecast is not a recovery yet, but the start of a turn around after a crazy 2022, so we're forecasting a half-percent decline for national sales in 2023.”.It's the same for prices, says Cathcart..“The price is forecast to decline 5.9% in 2023 compared to 2022 but the thing is, that has already happened in the 2022 monthly data,” he says..“That's in the past, so prices will firm up over the course of 2023.”
