When Jason Kenney became premier-elect of Alberta, he could not have imagined he would not even be an MLA four years later..On April 16, 2019, Kenney arrived in his blue campaign pickup truck to celebrate his election win before party faithful in Calgary..“What a great day for the province of Alberta,” a 50-year-old Kenney told an enthusiastic crowd..“Today, our great province has sent a message to Canada and the world: Alberta is open for business.”.Kenney, armed with 55% provincial support and 63 of 87 seats, said the UCP would take Alberta from “being the slowest-moving and most over-regulated economy in Canada, to being one of the freest and fastest-moving economies in the world.”.But, before a year had passed, pandemic lockdowns left Alberta in more controls and constraints than ever before..In an interview with the Western Standard, Marco Navarro-Genie, founder of the Haultain Research Institute, said, “COVID transformed the party because it transformed the leader and his policies and his approach.”.Navarro-Genie said Kenney demonstrated “a subtle inversion” of values in his first announcement after the pandemic was declared..“It was clearly somebody else speaking, but his lips were moving. He said we needed to lock down in order to protect the healthcare system.There's no way the Kenney I used to know would have put a system in front of the welfare of people,” Navarro-Genie said..“The pro life guy, the Catholic guy, the guy who thought human beings are primary to politics, wouldn't say that.”.On Kenney’s watch, pastors were put in jail for holding church services. Open revolt in his caucus ensued over these and other issues..Geoffrey Hale, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Lethbridge, told the Western Standard controversy got the better of Kenney..“Kenney's style made him a lightning rod for a broad cross section of public opinion. He tried to steer between multiple rocks and during a period that was not playing to his policy priorities, particularly in the pandemic. And that left him, given his combative style, very vulnerable,” Hale said..“Kenney, who could be a very formidable retail politician at his peak, was sufficiently shut in by the effects of the pandemic that he was not able to pivot, given the multitude of crises he was dealing with. [He had] to connect with those people [disenfranchised by the pandemic], and by the time he got back to that, it was too late for him to recover.”.After receiving just 51% support in a leadership review in May 2022, Kenney announced he would step down. Then, Hale said, Kenney finished strong..“His management of the province in the six months between his decision to step down and his departure at the beginning of December, I thought, was exceptionally competent. He was extremely focused on the economic issues he had always talked about, and I think was successful in closing a number of files positively,” Hale said..Kenney claimed his government accomplished 92% of the UCP policy agenda, though Navarro-Genie has a more modest assessment..“Certainly, there's enough evidence to show they were, in terms of policy implementation, very successful. But again, all that got completely lost in the fog of COVID, mostly by Jason's own doing.”.Danielle Smith won the party leadership by championing the Alberta Sovereignty Act, something Kenney opposed. Although she has only been premier since October 12, 2022, Navarro-Genie believes she has had enough time to put her imprint on the party while rallying its members and support base..“Danielle had, and still, I think has, a more grounded connection to regular people than Kenney did. Kenney lost sight of the regular guy, and I think Danielle is still grounded in that. Parties take on the aura of the leader, especially when they have new leaders. And she's also more libertarian than she is conservative.”.Smith was born in Calgary, lives in High River, but represents Brooks-Medicine Hat in the legislature. Navarro-Genie believes rural Albertans have an easier time identifying with her than with past premiers..“Kenney talked a good deal about the rurals because in Alberta, you can't rule without the support of rural Alberta. But I think even though she's an urban woman, she lives in a semi rural area, and she has more contact and more connection, more grounding in rural Alberta than several premiers before her,” Navarro-Genie said..Hale believes Smith, like Kenney, inspires cheers or jeers, depending on the voter..“Each one has tendencies towards polarization, although Premier Smith has been working quite hard to sand off the rough edges of some of those in over the last four months. How much the memories of the leadership race [last] as opposed to recognition of what she is trying to do to reposition since then … it's very hard to say,” Hale said..“It's one of those cases where province-wide numbers are misleading because there are huge differences between small town Alberta, which for the most part, will be heavily conservative notwithstanding a handful of seats; Edmonton, which is largely out of reach, and Calgary, which is competitive, but not uniformly competitive.”
