Pundits say Danielle Smith’s win of United Conservative Party leadership and Alberta premiership is an historic victory at a historic time..Smith won the leadership race with 53.77% of the vote on the final ballot, edging her closest rival Travis Toews. The former Wildrose Party leader was the only one of seven candidate who was not a current MLA..Marco Navarro-Genie, founder of the Haultain Institute, believes Smith's victory is already historic..“This is one of the biggest political comebacks in Canadian politics,” Navarro-Genie told the Western Standard..“The job is now before her, and we'll see what she does with it. But it's a tremendous story that way she was discounted, given up for dead politically. She's been judicious and clever about her comeback, and the stars aligned for her.”.Now, Smith needs to align the UCP with her leadership and win a by-election in Brooks-Medicine Hat to return to the legislature. Navarro-Genie said Smith has made a good start at pulling her rivals and fractured party together..“I listened for that in the [acceptance] speech. And she was very good at including every single one of the contestants. She had something kind to say about each one of them. She welcomed [ousted MLA] Todd Loewen back into the fold.”.Melanee Thomas, political science professor at the University of Calgary, wonders if UCP party unity is real or just a “veneer.”.“The people who were saying we need to dump Jason Kenney, they've turned around and they're all trying to say we're united too. The challenge is that the structural tension persists,” Thomas said in an interview..“A leadership review is not a leadership contest, certainly. But Mr. Kenney was forced to resign under pressure with 52% at a leadership review. Danielle Smith has 54% on a leadership contest.”.Thomas says “it’s too early to tell” if Smith can lead the UCP to victory over Rachel Notley’s NDP..“What I would need to see is more general reactions, like what she actually chooses to do as premier and a policy agenda that she's going to set up to lead into that election campaign, and how folks react to it. Preliminary results indicate that it's close.”.During the campaign, Smith proposed a Sovereignty Act where Alberta would disregard whatever Ottawa did that was against provincial interests. Toews and other rivals in the race opposed the proposal, one Thomas calls “unconstitutional.”.Ted Morton, a former professor and Alberta cabinet minister, said he believes Smith is on the right track. Even initial losses in court or elsewhere are the first steps on the path to prevailing..“At crucial points in Alberta's history, Alberta premiers have done things that directly challenged the status quo, including the constitutional status quo,” Morton told the Western Standard..“Challenging federal laws that went too far brought public visibility and public attention and put the issue on the agenda.”.If the Poilievre-led Conservatives topple the Liberals in the next election, Morton believes a Smith-led UCP Alberta could propel both the province and the nation into prosperity. First, he says she must handle the near future well..“She has to focus on issues that are mainstream, and voters that don't belong the parties that still cast votes and bring them over. [By] focusing on normal Albertans and the problems they face, I think she can win a majority government.”.Morton says Alberta’s rebound is perfect timing to help the UCP win another election..“The Alberta economy right now is really humming. The job creation that's going on right now is huge in this province. And it's going to continue to be huge. Danielle and the UCP will benefit from stronger economy and high employment.”.Navarro-Genie, who is currently working on a book on former Alberta premier Peter Lougheed, sees parallels with this time and the Lougheed era..“The province finds itself at that crucial place again because of the collapse of oil. After the recession of the past couple of years, Alberta now finds itself with money gushing in. And so there is need to review the ways in which things are spent,” Navarro-Genie said..“She needs to look after that, and I think she has the heart for it. There hasn't been much discipline in Edmonton to deal properly with fiscal issues…The pandemic took every gust of wind out of [Premier Kenney’s] sails and the spending started going crazy again. So Danielle will have to deal with that. And if anybody can do it, I think she'd be the one.”
