The Conservatives have opened up a 10-point lead over the Liberals as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to shuffle his cabinet, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. .“Despite vote share gains in some recent byelections, the national picture remains quite challenging for the federal Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau,” said Abacus Data Chair and CEO David Coletto in a Wednesday press release. .“Only 19% think the government deserves to be re-elected.” .Abacus said the Conservatives are leading with 38% of the vote. It said the Liberals would come in second place (28%). .Subsequent to the Liberals would be the NDP (18%). This was followed by the Bloc Quebecois (7%), Greens (5%), and the People’s Party of Canada (4%). .Abacus went on to say the Conservatives are well ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. It added the Conservatives lead by 6% in Ontario and are tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada. .The Liberals trail the Conservatives across all age groups, including those under 30. The Conservatives have a 14-point lead among men and a four-point lead among women. .Abacus continued by saying the Canadian government’s approval rating is down from the end of June — 32% approve and and 51% disapprove. This approval rating is the lowest score it has measured since 2021. .Impressions of the federal leaders are consistent with what it found at the end of June. Trudeau is at -22% (29% positive vs. 51% negative), Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is at -6% (31% positive vs. 37% negative), and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is at +5 (36% positive vs. 31% negative). .About half of Canadians want a change in government and feel there are good alternatives for the Liberals —up 3% since the end of June. One-fifth said they think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected — down 2%. .The remaining 31% said they think it is time for a change but do not feel there is a good alternative. .Among those who think it is a time for change and believe there is a good alternative, 59% are voting Conservative and 21% are choosing NDP. The Conservatives’ share of this group is up 4% since June, and the NDP is down 3%. .Among those who think it is time for a change but do not think there is a good alternative, the Liberal vote share is up to 33%. One-quarter would vote Conservative, 19% for the NDP, and 15% for the Bloc Quebecois. .When it comes to those who think the Liberals and Trudeau deserve to be re-elected, they get 78% of committed voters compared with 11% for the NDP and 3% for the Conservatives. .The top issue of concern for Canadians was the rising cost of living (72%). .Second place went to healthcare (45%). This was followed by housing affordability and accessibility (43%), the economy (38%), and climate change and the environment (29%). .Coletto said the cabinet shuffle “needs to signal that the government is responding to these concerns and the government should relentlessly focus on those issues.”.While these results might feel good for the Conservatives, he said there is evidence Poilievre and it are not making much progress comforting Canadians with them forming government. He called this “a real, present danger for the Conservatives.” .Coletto concluded by saying the Conservatives have lost ground among voters who want change but are uncomfortable with the alternatives. .“Poilievre’s personal numbers haven’t moved and remain better than the Conservatives, but still don’t have a firm sense of him or what he stands for — more to come on that front shortly,” he said.
