The Conservatives would beat the Liberals in the popular vote by 15 points if an election were held today, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. .“These numbers continue to show deterioration in underlying opinions about the government and the Prime Minister that we first started seeing last summer but only recently seem to have impacted people’s intended voting behaviour,” said Abacus Data Chair and CEO David Coletto in a Thursday press release. .“The government needs to find a way to reset its agenda that allows people to evaluate the government differently and offers a plan and vision that gives people hope that they have a handle on the key issues facing the country.” .Abacus said the Conservatives would win the popular vote with 41%. While having the most seats now, it said the Liberals would come in second place (26%). .Subsequent to the Liberals would be the NDP (18%). This was followed by the Bloc Quebecois (8%), Greens and People’s Party of Canada (3%) and other (1%). .Since the previous poll one week ago, Abacus said the Conservatives are up by one point, the Liberals steady and the NDP down one. It added the Bloc Quebecois is up a little in Quebec..The Conservatives continue to hold a large lead in Western Canada, dominating in British Columbia like never before. It leads by six points in Ontario and by 11 in Atlantic Canada. .In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois have an eight point lead over the Liberals. .The Conservatives continue to hold across all age groups and among men and women. While it leads by wide margins among those with a high school or college education, it is tied with the Liberals among those with a university degree. .Abacus acknowledged the steady vote intention figures mask deteriorating underlying opinions. .For example, people disapproving of the Canadian government’s performance is up four points to 57% since last week, reaching the highest it has been since 2015. Three-tenths approve of the performance of the Canadian government. .Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s image has worsened. More than half of people have a negative impression of him, and 27% view him positively. .Since the end of June, Trudeau’s personal numbers have trended down across all key demographic groups, particularly Millennials. .In contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has about equal numbers with positive and negative impressions, although there does not appear to be a bounce or drop for him after coming out of the Conservative Convention. .Perhaps most worrisome for the Liberals is what appears to be some deterioration in its accessible voter pool. It has reached the lowest point since 2015 at 42% — a drop of two points since August. .Half of Canadians said they are open to voting Conservative — the largest gap in accessible voter pool advantage for the party since 2015. .The most important issue for people continues to be the rising cost of living (72%). .Subsequent to the rising cost of living is housing affordability and accessibility (46%). This was followed by healthcare (42%), the economy (36%), and climate change and the environment (29%). .In the absence of a vision from the Canadian government, Coletto said people’s anxiety about the state of Canada and their personal lives will “overshadow any incremental policies or actions it roles out.”.For the Conservatives, he said these numbers reinforce the strong position it is in at the moment..He called it as being “seen as best able to handle most of the top issues people are focused on and if the desire for change persists and they are seen as capable and acceptable alternatives, they will easily ride the wave into office whenever the next election comes.”.Coletto concluded by saying the election could be years away. .“But the trend is what matters and the Liberal situation is worsening at this point from week to week,” he said. .Poilievre said at the Conservative Convention on Friday the worst part about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is what he thinks of average Canadians. .READ MORE: Poilievre says Trudeau's wrong about his life being tough.“Recently in Charlottetown, he said everyone should stop picking on him, because it is a really tough time to be a politician,” he said. .“No, Mr. Trudeau.”.The poll was conducted through a set of partner panels through Lucid with 2,125 Canadian adults from September 9 to 13. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
