The selection of Pierre Poilievre as Conservative leader already changed the dynamics of federal politics, and perhaps even policy, leading pundits to speculate what might happen in a future election..Poilievre claimed victory on Twitter for the Liberal government’s relaxation of COVID-19 mandates at airports that came into effect October 1. Retired political scientist Nelson Wiseman, of the University of Toronto, says that’s legit..“The Conservatives have pushed on it, so it's legitimate for them to claim credit. But I would point out that there are many other catalysts. The Arrive Canada app is just a big headache.”.Marco Navarro-Genie, founder of the Haultain Institute, co-authored a book on COVID-19 with University of Calgary political science professor Barry Cooper. He finds the timing interesting. .“This course correction begs the question. After all the insults against people who oppose them on the mandates, suddenly there is a change of heart almost a year later,” Navarro-Genie said..“That is, no question in my mind, part of the Poilievre effect. [He] tapped into the general discontent with the COVID regime, and at the same time amplified it through his campaign.”.Scott Edward Bennett, a political science professor at Carleton University, is not so sure..“It may have been a factor in timing, but the Trudeau government has been preparing an exit strategy for a while and looking for an opportune exit window. The gossip/rumor in Ottawa for a while has been that the government has known for some time that many of their pandemic measures were not wise or necessary. They have been slow to retreat because they did not want to anger/confuse the public by appearing to have been wrong or inconsistent,” Bennett said..“By proceeding slowly, they have hoped that they would appear to be rational and scientific. In the meantime, they were preparing their Dr. Tam victory lap commercials. Hilarious stuff. The message is, see what happy healthy times we are now about to enjoy because of your all-knowing government's insistence on wise use of highly scientific vaccines. At the same time, they know that people are fed up and that is affecting political support.”.Bennett also says Poilievre put Conservatives on the right track by hammering Trudeau on economic issues..“The Conservative leadership is stressing conservative themes like taxes. Good. I don't think this has changed Liberal approaches very much simply because the Liberal leadership does not take the Commons very seriously. Like father, like son, just more so and, in this case, less filtered through any sort of authentic rationality,” Bennett said..“I thought the NDP would lose support as their detente with the Liberals frayed. However, there is some suggestion that voters are moving to the NDP from the Liberal left. This is having some impact on Trudeau the Second's planning for the future. One partner in a pseudo-coalition is generally going to lose out eventually.”.It’s possible parties below the top two will lose support as the Poilievre-Trudeau clash captures attention. Wiseman thinks the PPC has the most to lose..“The party that's the most vulnerable is the People's Party because it's led by Maxime Bernier, who's a libertarian. And Poilievre is not quite where Bernier is, but it's the closest to that. And that's very critical,” Wiseman said..“If Trudeau is still the leader — and I have a feeling he's not going to be — the election will be more about Trudeau than it'll be about Poilievre, even though the Liberals will try to make it about him.”.Navarro-Genie believes if polls suggest Poilievre has strong support in Ontario, Quebec will follow to get representation in the federal cabinet..“Quebec voters are the shrewdest voters in this country by a long shot. They smell the moisture in the air. And when they see the storm coming, they move towards it or get out of the way, depending on what advantages them best. They align typically with the voting wind in Ontario. So Ontario is kind of the clincher there once again,” Navarro-Genie said..“We could if Poilievre keeps picking up steam, end up with a situation in which the Conservatives come up with another collapse of the Liberal vote, like in ‘84, when Mulroney won. It's not beyond the possibilities.”
The selection of Pierre Poilievre as Conservative leader already changed the dynamics of federal politics, and perhaps even policy, leading pundits to speculate what might happen in a future election..Poilievre claimed victory on Twitter for the Liberal government’s relaxation of COVID-19 mandates at airports that came into effect October 1. Retired political scientist Nelson Wiseman, of the University of Toronto, says that’s legit..“The Conservatives have pushed on it, so it's legitimate for them to claim credit. But I would point out that there are many other catalysts. The Arrive Canada app is just a big headache.”.Marco Navarro-Genie, founder of the Haultain Institute, co-authored a book on COVID-19 with University of Calgary political science professor Barry Cooper. He finds the timing interesting. .“This course correction begs the question. After all the insults against people who oppose them on the mandates, suddenly there is a change of heart almost a year later,” Navarro-Genie said..“That is, no question in my mind, part of the Poilievre effect. [He] tapped into the general discontent with the COVID regime, and at the same time amplified it through his campaign.”.Scott Edward Bennett, a political science professor at Carleton University, is not so sure..“It may have been a factor in timing, but the Trudeau government has been preparing an exit strategy for a while and looking for an opportune exit window. The gossip/rumor in Ottawa for a while has been that the government has known for some time that many of their pandemic measures were not wise or necessary. They have been slow to retreat because they did not want to anger/confuse the public by appearing to have been wrong or inconsistent,” Bennett said..“By proceeding slowly, they have hoped that they would appear to be rational and scientific. In the meantime, they were preparing their Dr. Tam victory lap commercials. Hilarious stuff. The message is, see what happy healthy times we are now about to enjoy because of your all-knowing government's insistence on wise use of highly scientific vaccines. At the same time, they know that people are fed up and that is affecting political support.”.Bennett also says Poilievre put Conservatives on the right track by hammering Trudeau on economic issues..“The Conservative leadership is stressing conservative themes like taxes. Good. I don't think this has changed Liberal approaches very much simply because the Liberal leadership does not take the Commons very seriously. Like father, like son, just more so and, in this case, less filtered through any sort of authentic rationality,” Bennett said..“I thought the NDP would lose support as their detente with the Liberals frayed. However, there is some suggestion that voters are moving to the NDP from the Liberal left. This is having some impact on Trudeau the Second's planning for the future. One partner in a pseudo-coalition is generally going to lose out eventually.”.It’s possible parties below the top two will lose support as the Poilievre-Trudeau clash captures attention. Wiseman thinks the PPC has the most to lose..“The party that's the most vulnerable is the People's Party because it's led by Maxime Bernier, who's a libertarian. And Poilievre is not quite where Bernier is, but it's the closest to that. And that's very critical,” Wiseman said..“If Trudeau is still the leader — and I have a feeling he's not going to be — the election will be more about Trudeau than it'll be about Poilievre, even though the Liberals will try to make it about him.”.Navarro-Genie believes if polls suggest Poilievre has strong support in Ontario, Quebec will follow to get representation in the federal cabinet..“Quebec voters are the shrewdest voters in this country by a long shot. They smell the moisture in the air. And when they see the storm coming, they move towards it or get out of the way, depending on what advantages them best. They align typically with the voting wind in Ontario. So Ontario is kind of the clincher there once again,” Navarro-Genie said..“We could if Poilievre keeps picking up steam, end up with a situation in which the Conservatives come up with another collapse of the Liberal vote, like in ‘84, when Mulroney won. It's not beyond the possibilities.”
