Results of the latest poll predictions from Angus Reid and 338Canada deliver a massive blow to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal administration. A new Angus Reid poll shows 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservatives, 21% would vote Liberal, 19% NDP, 10% Bloc Québécois, 5% Green and 1% People's Party of Canada (PPC). The pollster noted Conservatives lead by 25% in Ontario, and the Liberals have dropped to a third in Quebec.Using those stats, seat projections by Election Modeler Charestiste show the Liberals would score a scarce 25 seats in the next federal election, down a whopping 135 seats from the party’s current minority government. This is the lowest number of seats the Liberals have held since Stephen Harper's majority win in 2011, where the Liberals won only 34 seats. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Opposition party (CPC) is projected to win 227 seats, a 108-seat increase, and holds an advantage in every province excluding Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois has a forecasted gain of 16 seats, for a total of 41.Jagmeet Singh’s NDPs are up 16 seats, bringing the projected number of seats up to 41. .According to 338Canada, the Tories are forecast to win between 179 and 233 seats, and the Liberals 57 to 107. The pollster forecasts 28 to 41 seats for the Bloc and 10 to 27 for the NDP.The Green Party is expected to win two seats, and the People’s Party of Canada is not forecast to win any seats, though both parties are up a few percentage points in votes, per 338Canada..Since Poilievre was elected party leader in 2022, the CPC has “made gains across nearly all demographics and regions at the expense of the Liberals,” wrote Angus Reid, detailing “support for the Liberals has declined double digits in Ontario (-13) and Atlantic Canada (-17).” Tories in those regions gained nine and 10 points respectively. CPC votership has increased eight points among women 18 to 34 and older than 54, and 10 among men aged 35 to 54. .“Opinions of Trudeau have deteriorated across all age and gender groups,” wrote Angus Reid. Back in September 2022, 50% of women older than 54 said they approved of the prime minister, but now only 37% do. “A majority of all demographics say they disapprove of Trudeau, which wasn’t the case two years ago,” wrote the pollster. .Poilievre as a leader has remained stagnant in his approval rating, 52% say they have an unfavourable view, comparable to 51% when he was elected, with 36% say he is favourable now and 35% says so in September 2022. .Angus Reid said Canadians’ concern over immigration has skyrocketed “four-fold over the last two years.” A total 21% of Canadians surveyed say “immigration/refugees” is the top issue the country faces, tied with climate change. The high cost of living is Canadians’ most pressing concern, 57%, followed by health care, 45% and housing affordability 32%.The pollster noted housing affordability “represents a ripple effect from Canada’s booming population driven by immigrants, both temporary and permanent,” along with unemployment — particularly among young Canadians.
Results of the latest poll predictions from Angus Reid and 338Canada deliver a massive blow to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal administration. A new Angus Reid poll shows 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservatives, 21% would vote Liberal, 19% NDP, 10% Bloc Québécois, 5% Green and 1% People's Party of Canada (PPC). The pollster noted Conservatives lead by 25% in Ontario, and the Liberals have dropped to a third in Quebec.Using those stats, seat projections by Election Modeler Charestiste show the Liberals would score a scarce 25 seats in the next federal election, down a whopping 135 seats from the party’s current minority government. This is the lowest number of seats the Liberals have held since Stephen Harper's majority win in 2011, where the Liberals won only 34 seats. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Opposition party (CPC) is projected to win 227 seats, a 108-seat increase, and holds an advantage in every province excluding Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois has a forecasted gain of 16 seats, for a total of 41.Jagmeet Singh’s NDPs are up 16 seats, bringing the projected number of seats up to 41. .According to 338Canada, the Tories are forecast to win between 179 and 233 seats, and the Liberals 57 to 107. The pollster forecasts 28 to 41 seats for the Bloc and 10 to 27 for the NDP.The Green Party is expected to win two seats, and the People’s Party of Canada is not forecast to win any seats, though both parties are up a few percentage points in votes, per 338Canada..Since Poilievre was elected party leader in 2022, the CPC has “made gains across nearly all demographics and regions at the expense of the Liberals,” wrote Angus Reid, detailing “support for the Liberals has declined double digits in Ontario (-13) and Atlantic Canada (-17).” Tories in those regions gained nine and 10 points respectively. CPC votership has increased eight points among women 18 to 34 and older than 54, and 10 among men aged 35 to 54. .“Opinions of Trudeau have deteriorated across all age and gender groups,” wrote Angus Reid. Back in September 2022, 50% of women older than 54 said they approved of the prime minister, but now only 37% do. “A majority of all demographics say they disapprove of Trudeau, which wasn’t the case two years ago,” wrote the pollster. .Poilievre as a leader has remained stagnant in his approval rating, 52% say they have an unfavourable view, comparable to 51% when he was elected, with 36% say he is favourable now and 35% says so in September 2022. .Angus Reid said Canadians’ concern over immigration has skyrocketed “four-fold over the last two years.” A total 21% of Canadians surveyed say “immigration/refugees” is the top issue the country faces, tied with climate change. The high cost of living is Canadians’ most pressing concern, 57%, followed by health care, 45% and housing affordability 32%.The pollster noted housing affordability “represents a ripple effect from Canada’s booming population driven by immigrants, both temporary and permanent,” along with unemployment — particularly among young Canadians.
