United Kingdom voters head to the polls Thursday ahead of an election expected to go in the liberal Labour Party’s favour for the first time in 14 years. Tory Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is the fifth consecutive Conservative prime minister. Prime Minister Tony Blair, who won the 1997 general election with a majority of 179 and two subsequent elections with smaller majorities, was the last Labour prime minister. Meanwhile, right-wing populist party the Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is projected to win seats for the first time. Farage is expected to be elected MP for Clacton with 40% of the vote, ten points ahead of the Tories. UK pollster YouGov forecast in its final analysis Wednesday Keir Starmer’s Labour will win by 431 seats, an increase of 229 from the 2019 election. The Tories are expected to take 102 seats, down 263, while Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats anticipate 72 seats, up 61.The Scottish National Party is anticipated to win 18 seats, Reform UK and Wales’ Plaid Cymru three seats each and two for the Greens.YouGov forecasts “vote shares of 22% for the Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 15% for Reform UK, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens,” wrote the federal pollster. “A small movement in the overall share of the vote could equate to a large number of seats changing hands,” states YouGov. “Our range for the number of Conservative seats is between 78 and 129 seats, while our range for the Liberal Democrats is between 57 and 87. That means at one end of the realistic possibilities is that we wake up on Friday to find Ed Davey is Leader of the Opposition. At the other end of possibilities is that the Tories are in a secure second place.”As for Labour, the pollster’s “range of possibilities goes from a large Labour majority to an exceptionally large Labour majority.”While Labour appears to have secured a historic victory, there is a notable wildcard on the rise as mass immigration continues to cause disruptions across the UK. .Since the beginning of the election campaign, Labour dropped four points, the Tories dropped three and the Liberal Democrats gained one. Reform UK, however, has gained five points. Farage is focused on "family, community, country,” he said in an interview with Reuters, and aims for the Reform Party to be the main voice of opposition in parliament — which he hopes will escalate into a “mass movement.”Farage argues new arrivals to Britain, unless in the case they are genuine refugees, should not be eligible to receive taxpayer-funded benefits or free health care for five years, he told the publication. He said the endless stream of newcomers into the country has led to a shortage of social housing and consequently many Britons express frustration at the disadvantage they consequently have on waitlists. The rise in Reform UK popularity has been evident on social media. An analysis by Hootsuite published by the Independent shows social media engagement on Facebook and Twitter (“X”) for each political party and its leader — in which case, Farage is the one who wins by a landslide. Both Farage and his right-wing party amassed more than 2.8 million reactions on Facebook since the election campaign started on 22 May. Farage’s page garnered 2.1 million reactions and shares and the Reform Party page 719,000. The publication noted the data reveals the largest number of Facebook interactions ever for any politician or political party. Starmer attracted 300,000 interactions and Labour 269,000, while Sunak received just 270,000 and his Conservatives' page 163,000..Farage on Twitter leads engagement at 13.9 million interactions, with 9.3 million interactions for the party, and his videos have garnered 39.4 billion views during the election campaign. The mass immigration-opposing party is forecast to take seats in East of England and Great Yarmouth, in addition to Farage’s seat in Clacton. Reform UK is also in a tight race with Labour in three ridings, Folkestone and Hythe, Basildon and Billericay, and Ashfield. YouGov notes Reform has a marginal advantage in Ashfield. Reform is a close second against Conservatives in Boston and Skegness constituencies, and there are “four three-way marginal seats” between the Tories, Labour, Reform and Liberal Democrats. “There are 107 seats in total where Reform UK are in second place, though the vast majority of these (97) are either safe or likely Labour seats,” states the pollster.
