Despite a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin claiming the country is preparing to attack Poland following its war against Ukraine, security experts say the threats are "ridiculous," "utter nonsense" and "highly unlikely."."It's an utterly nonsensical claim made by someone who has a loose relationship with reality," said Simon Miles, an assistant professor of Slavic and Eurasian Studies at the Sanford School of Public Policy.."I'm very confident that no one in Russia is seriously thinking about going after Poland, nor frankly, is seriously thinking about going out to the Baltics.".On Monday, head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov suggested that Russia should "denazify and demilitarize" Poland after finishing its war in Ukraine..“What if, after the successful completion of the NMD, Russia begins to denazify and demilitarize the next country? After all, after Ukraine, Poland is on the map," Kadyrov said on Telegram. "I personally have such an intention, and I have repeatedly stated that the fight against Satanism should continue throughout Europe and, first of all, on the territory of Poland.”.Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has also threatened to attack Poland with a "cruel" response after Polish "provocations." Poland has accused Belarus of encouraging migrants to enter its borders, while Minsk has denies this allegation..Fears about a war between Russia and Poland were also ignited in November of last year, when a stray missile landed in Poland from Ukraine, killing two people. While it was feared that Russia had deliberately attacked Poland, a member of NATO, it was later revealed that a stray Ukrainian air defense missile had landed in the country..Polish authorities have also expressed concern about a Russian invasion. Last week, Polish ambassador to the US Marek Magierowski warned that Russia could set its sights on Poland next. “Russia has always been our neighbor... We have to be prepared for any eventuality. Poland might be the next target," he said..But according to Miles, the Russians are too focused on their war in Ukraine to be seriously concerned with taking on Poland. He said while Russia is preparing for a new offensive with over 300,000 fresh troops, their war against Ukraine is still going "disastrously badly."."The change over leadership, especially with general Sergey Surovikin being demoted, indicates that Vladimir Putin is deeply dissatisfied with the war the war is going," he said. "The Russians are trying to take the initiative back, but it's still been an extraordinarily poor showing.".Miles said Kadyrov's musings about a war with Poland are "utter nonsense," and show that he has a "loose relationship with reality." Kadyrov has a long history of making outrageous claims regarding Russia "preparing to take over the world," according to Miles.."You need to understand him as one of Putin's rhetorical, and sometimes physical, attack dogs," Miles said. "I'm very confident that no one is seriously thinking about going after Poland, nor frankly, is seriously thinking about going out to the Baltic states.".Ivan Katchanovski, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa, believes that Ukraine is in a "dangerous position" at this point in the war. "Russia still has a significant advantage, and there is a low likelihood that Ukraine will be able to defeat Russia and take back Crimea.".Even still, Katchanovski said it is highly unlikely that Russia will attack Poland, primarily because the country is a part of NATO. Article 5 of NATO's constitution, which stipulates that an attack on one country is an attack on them all, acts as a strong deterrence to Russian aggression.."This is just typical of Kadyrov, who is famous for making similar claims on social media. He is not able to change anything on the invasion side," he said..Stephen Saideman, director of the Canadian Defence and Security Network, said Kadyrov's threat is "ridiculous," primarily because Russia would need to go through Ukraine in order to get to Warsaw.."Secondly, the war in Ukraine is grinding down a lot of their military resources, so they are poorly equipped to be able to fight NATO," he said.."Putin hasn't attacked a NATO country and he's very careful for his forces to stay within Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Because if they attack NATO, that would lead to World War Three.
