The waiting is the hardest part.Federal Environment Minister StevenGuilbeault — and almost every other Liberal cabinet member in Quebec — would lose their seats if a federal election were called today according to polls released over the weekend.According to the 338Canada website, which aggregates opinion surveys from third-party pollsters and condenses them every Sunday, Guilbeault has just a 35% chance of keeping his seat in the next federal election compared to 65% for the NDP..If a vote were held today — or more accurately, yesterday — Guilbeault would get 33% of the vote in his Montreal Laurier-Sainte-Marie riding, down from the 38% he got in 2021. The as-yet-to-be determined NDP candidate would rake in 35% — up 7% — while the Bloc Québécois would gather 21% or 6% while the greens would get 6%.Even the Conservatives would get 5% which would be double what it got in 2021. The seat last went NDP in the 2015 election and has been a Liberal stronghold ever since.If so, that would be a dramatic shift from even just two weeks ago, when Guilbeault’s was considered a solidly ‘safe’ Liberal seat. A ‘safe’ seat is one that has a 90% chance of winning or higher; the latest results are defined as a ‘toss-up’..And in fact, Guilbeault’s head isn’t the only one on the proverbial political chopping block. Industry Minister Francois-Phillipe Champagne and Heritage Minister Pascale St-Onge are also in trouble.“Every Liberal MP outside of the Greater Montreal and Outaouais regions would likely be defeated if current levels of support last until the next federal election,” 338 says. “Still, a Liberal optimist would point out the election is still a long way off — potentially 588 days from today, on October 20, 2025, the latest it can be held.”.According to the broader survey picture, the Liberals are down in every province and territory in the country, but especially in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. It’s running third in every region west of Thunder Bay, including BC.That means they would be reduced to 63 seats if they were to lose Quebec too.The Conservatives continue to surge, with an expect 210 seats based on the latest data. That level hasn’t been seen since the salad days of the Mulroney era, when he got 211 seats in 1984. The largest majority in Canadian history, in relative terms, was John Diefenbaker in 1958, when he got 208. By Canada 338 numbers, that gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning the next vote.
