The Conservatives would come in first place in the popular vote in Quebec if an election was held now, beating out the Bloc Quebecois by one point, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. Meanwhile outside Quebec, the Conservatives have opened a 25-point lead over the Liberals and are close to earning half of those who are committed to a political party at the moment. The Liberals and the NDP are statistically tied outside Quebec.Abacus Data said the Conservatives would receive 31% of the vote in Quebec. However, it said the BQ would come a close second (30%). After the BQ would be the Liberals (24%). This was followed by the NDP (12%) and Greens (3%). “As August begins, the political opinion environment looks almost exactly as it was when summer started and even when the year started,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a press release. “There remains a deep and broad desire for change.”While the Conservatives have a slim lead in Quebec, Abacus Data found it has a large one in Canada (43%). It added the Liberals would come in second place (23%). The NDP would come in third place (18%), and the Greens would place fourth (4%). Every party’s vote share remains consistent with the previous poll with minor changes, as the Conservatives are up 1% and the NDP are down 2%. As vote intention remains stable, Abacus Data said the Conservatives remain ahead among all demographic groups. It said Conservative support remains high among 45 to 59 year olds (51%) and 30 to 44 year olds (43%). The Liberal vote share is higher among men than women, but the NDP does better among women than men. The Conservative vote share is consistent regardless of gender.Abacus Data went on to say the Conservatives’ accessible voter pool has increased. This is because its pool is 16 points larger than the Liberals’ one. It said 55% of Canadians say they are open to voting for the Conservatives compared with 39% for the Liberals. Another 42% are open to voting for the NDP. Twenty-four percent of Liberal supporters are open to voting for the Conservatives, one-fifth of NDP supporters are open to it, and one-tenth of BQ supporters have examined it. Nine percent of Conservative supporters are open to voting for the Liberals, 41% of NDP supporters are open to it, and one-fifth of BQ supporters have thought about it. Along with growth in the Conservatives’ accessible voter pool, impressions of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre have improved. Forty-two percent of Canadians have a positive impression of Poilievre compared with 35% who have a negative view. The net score of +7 is close to the highest Abacus Data has measured for Poilievre. Over the summer, his positive impressions have increased by four points.At the same time, it has not seen any change in how people feel about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. One-quarter have a positive view of Trudeau, and 58% have a negative one for a net score of -33.If people use this poll to assess who is winning and losing the summer so far, Coletto said it is clear the Conservatives are. He said it continues to hold on to its 20-point lead and is making important gains in what he believes are more important underlying metrics.He acknowledged growing the pool of accessible voters and protecting Poilievre’s image “are essential to holding current supporters but more importantly, gives the party room to expand its vote share.” With a massive fundraising advantage, he said it is able to be on the offensive against the Liberals, BQ, and NDP and has a strategy that is working. For the Liberals, he said this poll continues to offer little good news. There has been no progress in shifting public opinion about Trudeau. As Coletto noted in his last analysis, the relationship between how people feel about Trudeau and how they intend to vote is strong and has not changed since 2015.“Unless they can change how people feel about the Prime Minister, the path back to competitiveness will be very difficult,” he said. This poll comes after Conservative MP Michelle Ferreri (Peterborough-Kawartha, ON) said on July 31 she was feeling disgusted after the Liberals and NDP shut down a committee study into violence against women.READ MORE: Conservative MP blasts Liberals, NDP for derailing violence against women hearingWhile witnesses and experts were ready to present their experience and analysis to address violence against women, Ferreri accused Liberal and NDP MPs of silencing them and telling them to go home. “The Liberals pulled this heartless stunt to cover for the Prime Minister, whose reckless policies have unleashed a crime wave across Canada that disproportionately affects women and vulnerable groups,” said Ferreri. The poll was conducted online through a series of partner panels on the Lucid exchange platform with 1,550 Canadian adults from July 31 to August 7. It had a margin of error of +/- 2.49 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Conservatives would come in first place in the popular vote in Quebec if an election was held now, beating out the Bloc Quebecois by one point, according to a poll conducted by Abacus Data. Meanwhile outside Quebec, the Conservatives have opened a 25-point lead over the Liberals and are close to earning half of those who are committed to a political party at the moment. The Liberals and the NDP are statistically tied outside Quebec.Abacus Data said the Conservatives would receive 31% of the vote in Quebec. However, it said the BQ would come a close second (30%). After the BQ would be the Liberals (24%). This was followed by the NDP (12%) and Greens (3%). “As August begins, the political opinion environment looks almost exactly as it was when summer started and even when the year started,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a press release. “There remains a deep and broad desire for change.”While the Conservatives have a slim lead in Quebec, Abacus Data found it has a large one in Canada (43%). It added the Liberals would come in second place (23%). The NDP would come in third place (18%), and the Greens would place fourth (4%). Every party’s vote share remains consistent with the previous poll with minor changes, as the Conservatives are up 1% and the NDP are down 2%. As vote intention remains stable, Abacus Data said the Conservatives remain ahead among all demographic groups. It said Conservative support remains high among 45 to 59 year olds (51%) and 30 to 44 year olds (43%). The Liberal vote share is higher among men than women, but the NDP does better among women than men. The Conservative vote share is consistent regardless of gender.Abacus Data went on to say the Conservatives’ accessible voter pool has increased. This is because its pool is 16 points larger than the Liberals’ one. It said 55% of Canadians say they are open to voting for the Conservatives compared with 39% for the Liberals. Another 42% are open to voting for the NDP. Twenty-four percent of Liberal supporters are open to voting for the Conservatives, one-fifth of NDP supporters are open to it, and one-tenth of BQ supporters have examined it. Nine percent of Conservative supporters are open to voting for the Liberals, 41% of NDP supporters are open to it, and one-fifth of BQ supporters have thought about it. Along with growth in the Conservatives’ accessible voter pool, impressions of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre have improved. Forty-two percent of Canadians have a positive impression of Poilievre compared with 35% who have a negative view. The net score of +7 is close to the highest Abacus Data has measured for Poilievre. Over the summer, his positive impressions have increased by four points.At the same time, it has not seen any change in how people feel about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. One-quarter have a positive view of Trudeau, and 58% have a negative one for a net score of -33.If people use this poll to assess who is winning and losing the summer so far, Coletto said it is clear the Conservatives are. He said it continues to hold on to its 20-point lead and is making important gains in what he believes are more important underlying metrics.He acknowledged growing the pool of accessible voters and protecting Poilievre’s image “are essential to holding current supporters but more importantly, gives the party room to expand its vote share.” With a massive fundraising advantage, he said it is able to be on the offensive against the Liberals, BQ, and NDP and has a strategy that is working. For the Liberals, he said this poll continues to offer little good news. There has been no progress in shifting public opinion about Trudeau. As Coletto noted in his last analysis, the relationship between how people feel about Trudeau and how they intend to vote is strong and has not changed since 2015.“Unless they can change how people feel about the Prime Minister, the path back to competitiveness will be very difficult,” he said. This poll comes after Conservative MP Michelle Ferreri (Peterborough-Kawartha, ON) said on July 31 she was feeling disgusted after the Liberals and NDP shut down a committee study into violence against women.READ MORE: Conservative MP blasts Liberals, NDP for derailing violence against women hearingWhile witnesses and experts were ready to present their experience and analysis to address violence against women, Ferreri accused Liberal and NDP MPs of silencing them and telling them to go home. “The Liberals pulled this heartless stunt to cover for the Prime Minister, whose reckless policies have unleashed a crime wave across Canada that disproportionately affects women and vulnerable groups,” said Ferreri. The poll was conducted online through a series of partner panels on the Lucid exchange platform with 1,550 Canadian adults from July 31 to August 7. It had a margin of error of +/- 2.49 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
