The housing supply/demand pendulum swung back to the supply side in the big three English markets in Canada, despite an increase in home sales in June, says a July 8 report from Rachel Battaglia of RBC Economics. “Transactions increased across the board from May with more buyers coming to the housing market. But buying was far from enough to absorb the new inventory that’s been rebuilding for months,” says Battaglia. “Growth in new listings continued to outpace sales in Canada’s more expensive markets, and inventories are continuing to grow, even in the busy Calgary market.” Battaglia says the increase in supply (new listings) is due to sellers trying to time the market ahead of expected interest rate cuts that could boost demand. "A rise in new condo completions in the Toronto area and struggling homeowners (including investors) are likely compelling more property owners to sell too,” she says. “The influx of supply has shifted more of the bargaining power to buyers, who in some markets are still extracting price concessions from sellers.” "We think most buyers will wait for steeper rate cuts before jumping into the market as the lagged impact of high interest rates keeps budgets under pressure.” Here’s Battaglia’s takes on the Big 3.Calgary “Another increase in sales this June brought sales activity up to a five month-high (seasonally adjusted),” she says. “Sales activity over the last two months more than offset the sharp dip recorded in April, making the softness this spring look modest relative to other major Canadian markets.” The rate of price increases has slowed in the last two months, but are still high from a historical perspective and continue to outpace all other major markets. The MLS composite home price index is 8.5% above last year with price appreciation concentrated in row and apartment dwellings, up 17% year-over-year, while single-family and semi-detached homes saw a 12% annual gain. “We think a turning point for the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy was enough to entice more buyers to market as explosive population growth continues to build up demand,” says Battaglia. “Even though affordability in Calgary has eroded dramatically in recent years, it’s still among the most affordable of the major markets we track, giving buyers an edge compared to other major markets in Ontario and BC.” “Still, mounting budgetary pressures are likely to keep a lid on market activity in the months ahead, supporting a gradual increase rather than a spike in Calgary’s market activity.".Vancouver An uptick in sales on the west coast in June has offset some of the decline in transactions earlier, says Battaglia. “We estimate a 5% monthly (seasonally adjusted) increase kept sales lingering around their 2024 high. But that still isn’t enough to bring sales above their year-ago level,” she says. “We still need to see another month or two of solid activity before we can comfortably characterize the increase as a bounce back in market activity.” The sales increase was balanced by an even larger increase in new listings, which Battaglia estimates jumped 9.5% from May, keeping active listings on the rise, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio down to its lowest since January 2023. “Stagnant market dynamics also kept price growth slowly decelerating for most of this year. The large boost to new listings last month, however, brought monthly prices down slightly for the first time since November,” she says. “The composite MLS benchmark home price index is now just 0.5% above a year ago. Like Toronto, prices held up better for lower-density homes in the Greater Vancouver Area. We expect the influx of multi-unit dwellings is playing a role in the pricing dynamics as more availability relaxes some of the competition for attached and apartment dwellings.” “In fact, almost all the growth in new listings over the last 12 months has come from medium and high-density housing. The number of single-detached homes for sale, on the other hand, is virtually unchanged from a year ago. We expect inventories to build further in the months ahead as budget constrained buyers wait for more rate cuts before entering the market.” .Toronto Battaglia notes more sellers are coming out of the woodwork in Toronto’s housing market with another big influx of new listings in June. “There were nearly 18,000 new units put up for sale, representing a 9.3% increase (seasonally adjusted) from May,” she says. “High rates of seller activity weren’t a one-off either. The influx was the third consecutive monthly increase, keeping the number of active listings well above their year ago level of 68%.” Condo apartments led the new listings parade with an 84% annual increase, while single-family homes saw a lesser, but still significant 56% rise. A 4.2% increase in sales from May helped absorb some of the new inventory on the market, but not enough to keep active listings from reaching a 14-year high of 23,600 in June. “The recent lift in activity suggests the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut didn’t go unnoticed. Still, sales activity continues to sit 13% below its year ago level,” says Battaglia. "We think it’ll take steeper interest rate cuts before prices and activity in Toronto heat up again.” .This is what the Western Standard is up againstThe Trudeau government is funding lies and propaganda by directly subsidizing the mainstream media. They do this to entrench the powerful Eastern, woke and corrupt interests that dominate the political, social and economic institutions in Canada. Federal authorities are constantly trying to censor us and stop us from publishing the stories that they don’t want you to read. Ottawa may weaponize our taxes and police against us, but we’ve got a powerful ally on our side.You. Free men, and free women. We need you to stand with us and become a member of the Western Standard. Here’s what you will get for your membership:Unlimited access to all articles from the Western Standard, Alberta Report, West Coast Standard, and Saskatchewan Standard, with no paywall. Our daily newsletter delivered to your inbox. .Access to exclusive Member-only WS events.Keep the West’s leading independent media voice strong and free.If you can, please support us with a monthly or annual membership. It takes just a moment to set up, and you will be making a big impact on keeping one the last independent media outlets in Canada free from Ottawa’s corrupting influence.
The housing supply/demand pendulum swung back to the supply side in the big three English markets in Canada, despite an increase in home sales in June, says a July 8 report from Rachel Battaglia of RBC Economics. “Transactions increased across the board from May with more buyers coming to the housing market. But buying was far from enough to absorb the new inventory that’s been rebuilding for months,” says Battaglia. “Growth in new listings continued to outpace sales in Canada’s more expensive markets, and inventories are continuing to grow, even in the busy Calgary market.” Battaglia says the increase in supply (new listings) is due to sellers trying to time the market ahead of expected interest rate cuts that could boost demand. "A rise in new condo completions in the Toronto area and struggling homeowners (including investors) are likely compelling more property owners to sell too,” she says. “The influx of supply has shifted more of the bargaining power to buyers, who in some markets are still extracting price concessions from sellers.” "We think most buyers will wait for steeper rate cuts before jumping into the market as the lagged impact of high interest rates keeps budgets under pressure.” Here’s Battaglia’s takes on the Big 3.Calgary “Another increase in sales this June brought sales activity up to a five month-high (seasonally adjusted),” she says. “Sales activity over the last two months more than offset the sharp dip recorded in April, making the softness this spring look modest relative to other major Canadian markets.” The rate of price increases has slowed in the last two months, but are still high from a historical perspective and continue to outpace all other major markets. The MLS composite home price index is 8.5% above last year with price appreciation concentrated in row and apartment dwellings, up 17% year-over-year, while single-family and semi-detached homes saw a 12% annual gain. “We think a turning point for the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy was enough to entice more buyers to market as explosive population growth continues to build up demand,” says Battaglia. “Even though affordability in Calgary has eroded dramatically in recent years, it’s still among the most affordable of the major markets we track, giving buyers an edge compared to other major markets in Ontario and BC.” “Still, mounting budgetary pressures are likely to keep a lid on market activity in the months ahead, supporting a gradual increase rather than a spike in Calgary’s market activity.".Vancouver An uptick in sales on the west coast in June has offset some of the decline in transactions earlier, says Battaglia. “We estimate a 5% monthly (seasonally adjusted) increase kept sales lingering around their 2024 high. But that still isn’t enough to bring sales above their year-ago level,” she says. “We still need to see another month or two of solid activity before we can comfortably characterize the increase as a bounce back in market activity.” The sales increase was balanced by an even larger increase in new listings, which Battaglia estimates jumped 9.5% from May, keeping active listings on the rise, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio down to its lowest since January 2023. “Stagnant market dynamics also kept price growth slowly decelerating for most of this year. The large boost to new listings last month, however, brought monthly prices down slightly for the first time since November,” she says. “The composite MLS benchmark home price index is now just 0.5% above a year ago. Like Toronto, prices held up better for lower-density homes in the Greater Vancouver Area. We expect the influx of multi-unit dwellings is playing a role in the pricing dynamics as more availability relaxes some of the competition for attached and apartment dwellings.” “In fact, almost all the growth in new listings over the last 12 months has come from medium and high-density housing. The number of single-detached homes for sale, on the other hand, is virtually unchanged from a year ago. We expect inventories to build further in the months ahead as budget constrained buyers wait for more rate cuts before entering the market.” .Toronto Battaglia notes more sellers are coming out of the woodwork in Toronto’s housing market with another big influx of new listings in June. “There were nearly 18,000 new units put up for sale, representing a 9.3% increase (seasonally adjusted) from May,” she says. “High rates of seller activity weren’t a one-off either. The influx was the third consecutive monthly increase, keeping the number of active listings well above their year ago level of 68%.” Condo apartments led the new listings parade with an 84% annual increase, while single-family homes saw a lesser, but still significant 56% rise. A 4.2% increase in sales from May helped absorb some of the new inventory on the market, but not enough to keep active listings from reaching a 14-year high of 23,600 in June. “The recent lift in activity suggests the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut didn’t go unnoticed. Still, sales activity continues to sit 13% below its year ago level,” says Battaglia. "We think it’ll take steeper interest rate cuts before prices and activity in Toronto heat up again.” .This is what the Western Standard is up againstThe Trudeau government is funding lies and propaganda by directly subsidizing the mainstream media. They do this to entrench the powerful Eastern, woke and corrupt interests that dominate the political, social and economic institutions in Canada. Federal authorities are constantly trying to censor us and stop us from publishing the stories that they don’t want you to read. Ottawa may weaponize our taxes and police against us, but we’ve got a powerful ally on our side.You. Free men, and free women. We need you to stand with us and become a member of the Western Standard. Here’s what you will get for your membership:Unlimited access to all articles from the Western Standard, Alberta Report, West Coast Standard, and Saskatchewan Standard, with no paywall. Our daily newsletter delivered to your inbox. .Access to exclusive Member-only WS events.Keep the West’s leading independent media voice strong and free.If you can, please support us with a monthly or annual membership. It takes just a moment to set up, and you will be making a big impact on keeping one the last independent media outlets in Canada free from Ottawa’s corrupting influence.
