The Alberta United Conservative Party holds a slight 3% lead over the Alberta NDP in the province-wide decided vote (48% to 45%), according to a poll done by ThinkHQ Public Affairs. .“The next provincial election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in Alberta’s history,” said ThinkHQ President Marc Henry in a Monday press release. .“As it sits today, the NDP can capture 20 seats out of Edmonton without breaking a sweat, and the UCP can say the same for most of the constituencies outside of the two biggest cities.”.The poll said the Alberta Party is well behind at 4%, and various other party alternatives are at 1%. It said 12% of Alberta voters are undecided about how they will vote in the 2023 election. .The next election will likely be a two-party choice for voters between the UCP and NDP..The Alberta Party, once capturing vote intentions in the mid-teens, has fallen below 5%. .At the moment, the poll said the UCP and NDP do not have a clear majority of seats. One of these parties will be the government following the next election, but it said neither can be certain of at least 44 seats without capturing leaning or toss-up constituencies. .Calgary voters will likely decide the outcome of the next election, and the race is divided. The UCP hold a nominal lead in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (47% to 45%), but the NDP have the same edge in Calgary proper (47% to 45%). .The poll acknowledged there are sizeable gender and generational gaps in party support. It said women and younger voters are disproportionately voting NDP, while men and middle-aged voters are more tilted to the UCP. .The poll went on to say almost two-fifths of voters approve of any of the party and leader choices in Alberta. It added the sentiment is high among undecided voters (80%) and those thinking about voting for the Alberta Party (73%). .More than one-third of people planning to vote UCP say they do not like their choices, compared to 27% of likely NDP voters..“With this in mind, turnout is going to be a decisive factor in the next election,” said Henry. .This poll comes after Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley broke her silence about the “just transition” on January 18..READ MORE: Notley breaks silence on 'Just Transition’.Notley said she believes there is a path available to Albertans and Canadians to cut back emissions.."To even ultimately find a cap which is practical, and to do so that actually creates economic opportunity and protects and grows good, long-term, industrial, blue-collar jobs,” she said. .The poll was conducted online with 1,144 adult Albertans from January 19 to 20. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
