Net-zero by 2050? Not likely.That’s the conclusion of a new study by the Fraser Institute that concludes Ottawa’s proposed emissions targets are not only unachievable, but “impractical and unrealistic” despite unprecedented government spending and regulation, international agreements and technological advancements.Those are based on actual emissions reductions achieved since the original Kyoto Accord in 1997, as well prior ‘energy transitions’ like the switch from wood and coal to oil and gas — which is still happening 200 years later..According to Vaclav Smil, a professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba and author of Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome reducing emissions to a net-zero level — where actual emissions are offset by reductions or offsets in other economic areas — isn’t going to be quick, or cheap.That’s because global fossil fuel consumption was 55% higher than when Kyoto Protocol was adopted. The share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption has only slightly decreased, dropping from 86% in 1997 to 82% in 2022.Although the eventual cost of global decarbonization cannot be reliably quantified, achieving zero carbon by 2050 would require spending substantially higher than for any previous long-term peacetime commitments. Moreover, high-income countries (including Canada) are also expected to finance new energy infrastructure in low-income economies — about 20% of their gross domestic product — further raising their decarbonization burdens..That’s notwithstanding the scale of today’s energy transition requires approximately 700 exajoules of new non-carbon energy sources by 2050, or 38,000 dams the size of BC’s massive Site C facility.Converting energy-intensive processes like iron smelting, cement, and plastics to non-fossil alternatives requires solutions not yet available for large scale use. Those alone account from about a third of all fossil fuel use.The energy transition imposes unprecedented demands for minerals including copper and lithium, which require substantial time to locate and develop mines.In that regard, widespread adoption of electric vehicles — a key component of Ottawa’s net-zero plan— will require 40 times more lithium and up to 25 times more cobalt, nickel and graphite worldwide compared to 2020 levels. “There are serious questions about the ability to achieve such increases in mineral and metal production,” the report says..“To eliminate carbon emissions by 2050, governments face unprecedented technical, economic and political challenges, making rapid and inexpensive transition impossible,” Fraser Institute report.Finally, achieving net-zero requires extensive and sustained global cooperation among countries — including China and India—that have demonstrated “varied levels of commitment” to the goal of decarbonization.Those are exacerbated by geopolitical and economic conflicts between countries such as the US, China and Russia.And if past history is an accurate gauge, the first global energy transition from traditional biomass sources such as wood and charcoal to fossil fuels started more than two centuries ago and unfolded gradually. That transition remains incomplete, as billions of people still rely on traditional biomass energies — wood and even cow dung — for cooking and heating.“To eliminate carbon emissions by 2050, governments face unprecedented technical, economic and political challenges, making rapid and inexpensive transition impossible,” Smil says.
