North American stock markets were mixed on Monday on the first trading day after US President Joe Biden’s shock announcement not to seek re-election.The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shot up more than 100 points at the opening bell before falling about 20 points. By 8:40 MST it was back up another 78 points. Likewise, the S&P 500 was up about 50 points to 5,555.91. The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 146 points after falling about 50 in the opening 30 minutes of trading. Oil prices were down about USD21 cents , dipping below $80 for the first time since June 16.On this side of the border, the TSX was up nearly 135 points to a new all-time high of 22,819.22 points..European stocks were also higher although Asian stocks slipped.It means the so-called ‘Trump Trade’ isn’t dead; since last month’s presidential debates and the Republican National Convention, investors have been loading up on stocks that could benefit from the candidate’s tariff-heavy agenda — like banks, cryptocurrency and oil.Conversely, they’d been selling off green energy shares and industries Trump’s policies could hurt. Prior to markets opening, analysts predicted so-called ‘safe-haven’ assets and currencies like gold and the Swiss Franc would be the big winners.Bitcoin was up about 1% to $67,450. Gold meanwhile, was down about $9.60 to $2,389.50.“If President Biden were to announce his withdrawal from the reelection race, the immediate market reaction would likely be one of volatility and uncertainty,” Josh Thompson, CEO of Impact Health USA, told Yahoo Finance! over the weekend. “Investors generally prefer stability and predictability, and such a significant political shift would disrupt both.”But those same analysts were still predicting the odds of a Trump victory on Nov. 5 at 60/40. Although its slight lower, investors are still betting that The Donald will still pull it through.That’s because a Trump presidency would bring "important macro and market implications, with the key impacts likely revolving around trade policy and tariffs," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report. For example, Trump's plan to impose universal tariffs on US imports would benefit domestic companies that mostly do business in the US, as opposed to global players, it said..Meanwhile, analysts expect interest rates to fall on both sides of the border throughout the year, regardless of who is elected president. The US Federal Reserve is expected to leave its rate at 5.25% when it meets on July 30-31. On this side of the border the Bank of Canada is expected to cut a quarter point to 4.50% this Wednesday in response to slowing inflation and a cooling economy.That’s because GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024 is attributed to population growth rather than any inherent strength in the economy. "Things are very weak, particularly on a per capita basis," said Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics with Desjardins Group.
North American stock markets were mixed on Monday on the first trading day after US President Joe Biden’s shock announcement not to seek re-election.The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shot up more than 100 points at the opening bell before falling about 20 points. By 8:40 MST it was back up another 78 points. Likewise, the S&P 500 was up about 50 points to 5,555.91. The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 146 points after falling about 50 in the opening 30 minutes of trading. Oil prices were down about USD21 cents , dipping below $80 for the first time since June 16.On this side of the border, the TSX was up nearly 135 points to a new all-time high of 22,819.22 points..European stocks were also higher although Asian stocks slipped.It means the so-called ‘Trump Trade’ isn’t dead; since last month’s presidential debates and the Republican National Convention, investors have been loading up on stocks that could benefit from the candidate’s tariff-heavy agenda — like banks, cryptocurrency and oil.Conversely, they’d been selling off green energy shares and industries Trump’s policies could hurt. Prior to markets opening, analysts predicted so-called ‘safe-haven’ assets and currencies like gold and the Swiss Franc would be the big winners.Bitcoin was up about 1% to $67,450. Gold meanwhile, was down about $9.60 to $2,389.50.“If President Biden were to announce his withdrawal from the reelection race, the immediate market reaction would likely be one of volatility and uncertainty,” Josh Thompson, CEO of Impact Health USA, told Yahoo Finance! over the weekend. “Investors generally prefer stability and predictability, and such a significant political shift would disrupt both.”But those same analysts were still predicting the odds of a Trump victory on Nov. 5 at 60/40. Although its slight lower, investors are still betting that The Donald will still pull it through.That’s because a Trump presidency would bring "important macro and market implications, with the key impacts likely revolving around trade policy and tariffs," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report. For example, Trump's plan to impose universal tariffs on US imports would benefit domestic companies that mostly do business in the US, as opposed to global players, it said..Meanwhile, analysts expect interest rates to fall on both sides of the border throughout the year, regardless of who is elected president. The US Federal Reserve is expected to leave its rate at 5.25% when it meets on July 30-31. On this side of the border the Bank of Canada is expected to cut a quarter point to 4.50% this Wednesday in response to slowing inflation and a cooling economy.That’s because GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024 is attributed to population growth rather than any inherent strength in the economy. "Things are very weak, particularly on a per capita basis," said Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics with Desjardins Group.
