FORSETH: B C Conservatives push NDP to the narrowest of margins

In yesterday's BC election, the incumbent BC NDP hung on with 46 seats, and the surging BC Conservatives came from nowhere to a very respectable 45 seats, with two lonely Green Party Members. In a public rebuke to the party however, Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau did not win her seat. A Speaker will be chosen from the NDP benches, so the closely divided legislature votes will be NDP 45, BC Conservative 45, and two Green. Some districts will have a mandated judicial recount as the results are so close. Final results will not be known for two weeks. Clearly, the the province is divided in two, socially and politically.2The legislature may not be recalled until spring, when they must present a budget. So there will be an NDP government for a while. The Greens lean to the NDP and will likely support them.Yet, there seemed to be a desire for political change. The advance poll attendance set a record. The BC Conservatives' meteoric rise in the polls during the summer was the surprise political story. Then followed the drama of the BC United Party completely collapsing.The incumbent NDP Premier David Eby was only an internally selected leader when former Premier John Horgan retired due to health. Premier Eby faced the electorate for the first time as a party leader.Although the election was long scheduled with no surprise, the NDP started off with an underwhelming performance. However, they had the advantage of government, a surplus of political seed money and a good community organization. They also had a seven-year record of government to defend.Pundits predicted a comfortable win of a majority NDP government. Then the political universe changed when the divided free-enterprise vote was no longer split, with the complete demise of Kevin Falcon and the BC United Party on August 28. He simply waved the white flag and canceled their campaign. Canadian politics had never seen this kind of story before.BC Conservative Leader John Rustad, who had been ousted from the BC United caucus by Falcon on August 18, 2022, sat in the Legislature as an independent. He then joined the nascent BC Conservative Party and on March 31, 2023, Rustad was acclaimed as the new leader. On September 13, 2023, BC United MLA Bruce Banman crossed the floor to join the Conservatives. This gave the Conservatives the two MLAs necessary for official party status. Banman was named Party House Leader and the Party began to receive media attention.As a result of the Conservatives gaining official status, the Legislative Assembly Management Committee approved $214,000 for the Conservative caucus operations, equivalent to the two-MLA Green caucus. In addition, parties receive an annual subsidy of $1.81 for each vote cast in their favour in the last election. The Conservatives had run in only 19 ridings and started the election with a disadvantage. The NDP was paid $1.6 million this year, and the Conservatives received a mere $65,000.As local candidate nominations unfolded in the following weeks, the BC Conservatives grew into an elected Caucus of 8, as some former BC United MLAs sought nominations under the Conservatives banner. Non-socialist voters coalesced behind the BC Conservatives and we had a real political race.On May 31, 2024, BC United MLA and caucus chair Lorne Doerkson crossed the floor to the Conservatives. Next was BC United's MLA for Surrey South, Elenore Sturko on June 3 who announced her intention to run in Surrey-Cloverdale. BC United MLA of Richmond North Centre and former Minister of Trade Teresa Wat on joined on July 29.On August 28, 2024, BC United leader Falcon announced that his party, lagging badly in the polls with financial donations dried up, was suspending his campaign. He put his support behind Rustad and the Conservatives.After Falcon’s denouement, three more MLAs became Conservatives. Trevor Halford of Surrey-White Rock, Peter Milobar of Kamloops North, and Ian Paton of Delta South. BC Conservatives and the NDP ultimately listed a full slate of 93 candidates, while the Greens had 68 for the 43rd British Columbia General Election. The election writ period started September 21st.Economic issues such as general affordability, cost of housing, the carbon tax, street crime, and illegal drugs were issues highlighted by the leaders. However, all the NDP promises would be delivered with borrowed money.When the polls indicated that the two parties were tied, the NDP fell back on the old dirty tricks of smear and name-calling. The media took relish in unreasonably magnifying comments that some Conservative candidates had made many years before, which the smug commentators deemed contemptible. Each party ran hard-hitting negative TV ads against the other. The essential NDP message was fear mongering that Conservatives would takes away benefits. The subtext of social and moral issues revealed the deep divide between the classic right versus left political separation in Canada.The Conservative message was to get BC back to work again. It was put an end to out-of-control taxes, failed social experiments that have made streets and children less safe, and the government’s obsession with controlling every aspect of life.There was a televised leaders debate, but Ipsos polling suggested the sparring match had little to no effect on the race. On election day, some polls had the NDP ahead by two points but within the margin of error. The Green Party was the nuisance maker, seeking a position to become kingmakers again in a tied legislature, to repeat the role that previous Green Party Leader A ndrew Weaver had in crowning NDP John Horgan and ousting Premier Christy Clarke in 2017.On 9 May 2017, Clarke was re-elected as Premier, but her party lost ground, emerging one seat shy of the 44 required for a majority government. With 43 seats in an 87-seat legislature, Clark watched as her opponents (the NDP with 41 seats and the Greens with 3) engineer her defeat. With their combined 44 seats, they voted down the Liberal government on a confidence motion in the legislature on 29 June 2017. The Greens and the NDP had made a deal.This time the Greens elected two but not their Leader. The NDP now have no advantage and can survive a “confidence motion” only with Green Party support. The election couldn’t have been closer. The narcissistic socialist desires for short-term consumption benefits slipped ahead of the more long-term believers in the political center-right responsibility.Business investment decisions that were waiting for economic freedom to build and work now will be cancelled. The dangerous economic downward trend that had started will now become a landslide, as the forest industry closes and mining plans are folded. Large investors will avoid BC. Young people with aspirations will leave the Province, as the socialist hoards deliver more of the same policies that started the existing downward trend.Debt and deficits will rise to alarming margins, while housing, crime, street drugs, and healthcare problems will worsen. The NDP's lying factory will stretch all credibility. The strong Official Opposition Conservatives will have a huge target to tell the story of the sordid administration to come, with all its insider deals and false, boastful numbers about how good the NDP is. The political mood will be dark and fractious, as the economy fails and the NDP is probably caught in another scandal.The sad outcome for BC is a lesson for Alberta. Prosperity can quickly evaporate if voters become self-indulgent and neglect the larger picture of the welfare of the whole. There were moments of great hope of redemption during the BC election. Conservative John Rustad led a good campaign and cannot be faulted. However, freedoms to live and earn must be strongly defended by each generation lest they are gradually lost through socialist ideology based on the politics of envy and resentment. It is up to us.