It’s not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’ — according to experts — Canada is rocked by a major earthquake off the West Coast. And if government planning is any indication, the scenes unfolding in Turkey and Syria are a grim harbinger of what awaits Canadian authorities and response teams in the event of even a modest temblor near Vancouver or Victoria. .It perhaps comes as a mere coincidence that the BC government modelled various response scenarios last week, from Feb. 7-9, in reaction to an imagined 7.0 magnitude rupture of the Cascadia subduction zone off Vancouver Island. .“Earthquakes are common in British Columbia. While most are too small to be felt, earthquakes strong enough to cause significant damage can occur. The most at-risk areas for earthquakes are along the west coast, where the threat of a tsunami may follow,” the government said in a release. .And if last year’s widespread floods are any indication— which caused an estimated $10 billion in damage — over $500 million were paid out in insurance claims alone, according to ICBC — it’s going to be a doozy. It conservatively predicts the destruction of tens of thousands of structures across the Lower Mainland and a conservative estimate of 2,000 fatalities including 20,000 injuries. .“Challenging exercises (like these) are vital in helping us prepare and set the conditions for interagency co-operation when responding to a large-scale earthquake or other major events. By practising together for potentially catastrophic scenarios, British Columbia will be better prepared in our collective response. The Canadian Red Cross is committed and ready to support British Columbians during emergencies of all magnitudes,” said Pat Quealey, vice-president, British Columbia and Yukon, Canadian Red Cross..Like Turkey, Vancouver sits on one of the most active tectonic zones on the planet. The difference is that much of Canada’s Pacific Coast is remote and unpopulated. The strongest earthquake in Canada was a 7.7 ripper in 2012 near Haida Gwaii. Canada’s deadliest earthquake happened in June, 1946 on Vancouver Island near Port Alberni where just two people were killed — in a 7.0 shaker — by falling brick chimneys. .Fast forward to 2023 and a planning document prepared by Emergency Management BC (EMBC) finds potentially catastrophic impacts from even a moderate quake on residential and commercial buildings, casualties, medical facilities, transportation infrastructure, population displacement, isolated communities, psychosocial and social impacts, environmental safety, animals, energy and utilities, communication technology, food security and supply chains, and the provincial economy. .It makes for grim reading. On par with a Hollywood disaster flick..In the event of an earthquake the province will declare a State of Provincial Emergency (SOPE) to enable the use of emergency powers needed to support response activities. Ministerial Orders may be issued under emergency management legislation, and/or other legislation where appropriate, “to address specific issues as they arise,” the document states. .The overarching conclusion is that local capacity to respond will be “overwhelmed… major transportation routes and nodes will be impacted: Road, rail, air, and marine transportation will be disrupted, and existing supply chains will be inoperable..Large parts of the impacted and surrounding area will be inaccessible by road due to earthquake-induced landslides, liquefaction, and other secondary impacts such as bridge collapses, and will be further isolated due to damage to airports and marine ports. If dams fail, settlements and infrastructure downstream in the inundation area may be impacted to varying degrees, further exacerbating this isolation,” it adds. .Mass evacuation out of the impact area will not take place due to damage to critical infrastructure and transportation routes and the need to prioritize the movement of essential personnel and goods. .In other words, we’re going to have to rely on the “goodwill” of our neighbours to essentially survive. .Secondary effects may include landslides, liquefaction, flooding, fires, and disease outbreaks. A shallow earthquake, like the most damaging, has the potential to also produce a localized tsunami triggered by landslide or sub-marine landslide. Hundreds or even thousands of aftershocks, likely as high as 6.0-6.3, can also be expected and will likely continue for months causing additional damage. There is a small chance that an “aftershock” could be larger than the initial event or “mainshock” it said..The document assumes no early warning system which is still several years away. .“This scenario presents assumptions of what will be happening, but in the event of a real earthquake it may take hours or even days to collect situational awareness equivalent to what is presented here.”.Don’t count on the Feds. Delays resulted in a single rescue team from Burnaby being able to access the rescue zone in Turkey — where the pulled a woman from the rubble to great fanfare nearly 100 hours after the initial catastrophe. The Canadian government committed $10 million to the cause..Justin Mulcahy, a spokesman for Vancouver's Heavy Urban Search and Rescue Team, says "there has been no official request'' from Ottawa to deploy the team, according to the CBC.
It’s not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’ — according to experts — Canada is rocked by a major earthquake off the West Coast. And if government planning is any indication, the scenes unfolding in Turkey and Syria are a grim harbinger of what awaits Canadian authorities and response teams in the event of even a modest temblor near Vancouver or Victoria. .It perhaps comes as a mere coincidence that the BC government modelled various response scenarios last week, from Feb. 7-9, in reaction to an imagined 7.0 magnitude rupture of the Cascadia subduction zone off Vancouver Island. .“Earthquakes are common in British Columbia. While most are too small to be felt, earthquakes strong enough to cause significant damage can occur. The most at-risk areas for earthquakes are along the west coast, where the threat of a tsunami may follow,” the government said in a release. .And if last year’s widespread floods are any indication— which caused an estimated $10 billion in damage — over $500 million were paid out in insurance claims alone, according to ICBC — it’s going to be a doozy. It conservatively predicts the destruction of tens of thousands of structures across the Lower Mainland and a conservative estimate of 2,000 fatalities including 20,000 injuries. .“Challenging exercises (like these) are vital in helping us prepare and set the conditions for interagency co-operation when responding to a large-scale earthquake or other major events. By practising together for potentially catastrophic scenarios, British Columbia will be better prepared in our collective response. The Canadian Red Cross is committed and ready to support British Columbians during emergencies of all magnitudes,” said Pat Quealey, vice-president, British Columbia and Yukon, Canadian Red Cross..Like Turkey, Vancouver sits on one of the most active tectonic zones on the planet. The difference is that much of Canada’s Pacific Coast is remote and unpopulated. The strongest earthquake in Canada was a 7.7 ripper in 2012 near Haida Gwaii. Canada’s deadliest earthquake happened in June, 1946 on Vancouver Island near Port Alberni where just two people were killed — in a 7.0 shaker — by falling brick chimneys. .Fast forward to 2023 and a planning document prepared by Emergency Management BC (EMBC) finds potentially catastrophic impacts from even a moderate quake on residential and commercial buildings, casualties, medical facilities, transportation infrastructure, population displacement, isolated communities, psychosocial and social impacts, environmental safety, animals, energy and utilities, communication technology, food security and supply chains, and the provincial economy. .It makes for grim reading. On par with a Hollywood disaster flick..In the event of an earthquake the province will declare a State of Provincial Emergency (SOPE) to enable the use of emergency powers needed to support response activities. Ministerial Orders may be issued under emergency management legislation, and/or other legislation where appropriate, “to address specific issues as they arise,” the document states. .The overarching conclusion is that local capacity to respond will be “overwhelmed… major transportation routes and nodes will be impacted: Road, rail, air, and marine transportation will be disrupted, and existing supply chains will be inoperable..Large parts of the impacted and surrounding area will be inaccessible by road due to earthquake-induced landslides, liquefaction, and other secondary impacts such as bridge collapses, and will be further isolated due to damage to airports and marine ports. If dams fail, settlements and infrastructure downstream in the inundation area may be impacted to varying degrees, further exacerbating this isolation,” it adds. .Mass evacuation out of the impact area will not take place due to damage to critical infrastructure and transportation routes and the need to prioritize the movement of essential personnel and goods. .In other words, we’re going to have to rely on the “goodwill” of our neighbours to essentially survive. .Secondary effects may include landslides, liquefaction, flooding, fires, and disease outbreaks. A shallow earthquake, like the most damaging, has the potential to also produce a localized tsunami triggered by landslide or sub-marine landslide. Hundreds or even thousands of aftershocks, likely as high as 6.0-6.3, can also be expected and will likely continue for months causing additional damage. There is a small chance that an “aftershock” could be larger than the initial event or “mainshock” it said..The document assumes no early warning system which is still several years away. .“This scenario presents assumptions of what will be happening, but in the event of a real earthquake it may take hours or even days to collect situational awareness equivalent to what is presented here.”.Don’t count on the Feds. Delays resulted in a single rescue team from Burnaby being able to access the rescue zone in Turkey — where the pulled a woman from the rubble to great fanfare nearly 100 hours after the initial catastrophe. The Canadian government committed $10 million to the cause..Justin Mulcahy, a spokesman for Vancouver's Heavy Urban Search and Rescue Team, says "there has been no official request'' from Ottawa to deploy the team, according to the CBC.
