There’s an old saying in business circles: ‘Sell in May and just go away’.But come July? Independence Day in the US marks the unofficial start of summer — and summer driving season as millions of Americans (and Canadians) head for the hills. Air conditioners kick in — particularly south of the 49th — and North American energy consumption takes off.Toss in war, or rumours of it, and oil prices are nearing year-long highs.European Brent crude futures have risen 7% over the last four weeks while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures have climbed 9% over the same period. On Friday they closed at USD$87.32 and $83.34 per barrel, respectively, which is the highest since April..Given that every dollar up or down from the Alberta government’s break even price of $72 WTI adds about CAD$250 million — give or take — to the treasury, the books are flowing black ink just in time for the start of the Stampede.More importantly, the differential between Alberta’s signature blend of of heavy oil and oil sands, Western Canadian Select (WCS), stood at $14.60 compared to a typical average of about $20.Combined with higher production — Alberta is expected to lead the world in oil supply growth this year, at up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) — and the return of the good times could be closer than anyone thinks.According to TD Economics, Albertans can thank the much maligned Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion for the extra largesse.Global oil supply growth estimates vary based on differing agency projections, but Canadian oil could account for 25–67% of incremental supply in 2024 — or about 6% of total world production — it said in a report.“Canadian oil production has always punched above its weight on the global scale. While the gap between Canada and the world’s top producers is still comparatively large, the year ahead is shaping up to be a promising one for Canada’s energy sector,” it said..Although Alberta accounts for the lion’s share — it produces more than Texas, Alaska and North Dakota combined — the restart of the Terra Nova oilfield offshore Newfoundland is also expected to make a meaningful contribution. According to the most recent updates from the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER), Canadian oil output currently stands at around 4.9 million bpd. Full data for 2023 is not yet available, but national production likely edged past the key psychological barrier of 5 million bpd sometime earlier this year.It’s also more than three times bigger than the anticipated growth in the US, which still reigns as the world’s penultimate oil producer, surpassing both Saudi Arabia and Russia at nearly 13 million bpd.This is happening at the same time that the US is importing record quantities of Canadian oil. Canada — Alberta — presently accounts for 60% of US crude imports and this boost in demand should provide a tailwind for the Canadian economy, while also building up Canada’s share of US crude oil imports, TD said..The bank noted major risks and uncertainties from future carbon taxation and the imposition of emissions caps post 2025. But for now, the stars are aligning.“Canadian oil is back in the spotlight for 2024. The boost in expected output is made possible by the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, the completion of maintenance at major facilities, continued sector investment and a still-supportive commodities backdrop.”In other words, kick back, crack a soda and enjoy the summer, Alberta. You’ve earned it.
There’s an old saying in business circles: ‘Sell in May and just go away’.But come July? Independence Day in the US marks the unofficial start of summer — and summer driving season as millions of Americans (and Canadians) head for the hills. Air conditioners kick in — particularly south of the 49th — and North American energy consumption takes off.Toss in war, or rumours of it, and oil prices are nearing year-long highs.European Brent crude futures have risen 7% over the last four weeks while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures have climbed 9% over the same period. On Friday they closed at USD$87.32 and $83.34 per barrel, respectively, which is the highest since April..Given that every dollar up or down from the Alberta government’s break even price of $72 WTI adds about CAD$250 million — give or take — to the treasury, the books are flowing black ink just in time for the start of the Stampede.More importantly, the differential between Alberta’s signature blend of of heavy oil and oil sands, Western Canadian Select (WCS), stood at $14.60 compared to a typical average of about $20.Combined with higher production — Alberta is expected to lead the world in oil supply growth this year, at up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) — and the return of the good times could be closer than anyone thinks.According to TD Economics, Albertans can thank the much maligned Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion for the extra largesse.Global oil supply growth estimates vary based on differing agency projections, but Canadian oil could account for 25–67% of incremental supply in 2024 — or about 6% of total world production — it said in a report.“Canadian oil production has always punched above its weight on the global scale. While the gap between Canada and the world’s top producers is still comparatively large, the year ahead is shaping up to be a promising one for Canada’s energy sector,” it said..Although Alberta accounts for the lion’s share — it produces more than Texas, Alaska and North Dakota combined — the restart of the Terra Nova oilfield offshore Newfoundland is also expected to make a meaningful contribution. According to the most recent updates from the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER), Canadian oil output currently stands at around 4.9 million bpd. Full data for 2023 is not yet available, but national production likely edged past the key psychological barrier of 5 million bpd sometime earlier this year.It’s also more than three times bigger than the anticipated growth in the US, which still reigns as the world’s penultimate oil producer, surpassing both Saudi Arabia and Russia at nearly 13 million bpd.This is happening at the same time that the US is importing record quantities of Canadian oil. Canada — Alberta — presently accounts for 60% of US crude imports and this boost in demand should provide a tailwind for the Canadian economy, while also building up Canada’s share of US crude oil imports, TD said..The bank noted major risks and uncertainties from future carbon taxation and the imposition of emissions caps post 2025. But for now, the stars are aligning.“Canadian oil is back in the spotlight for 2024. The boost in expected output is made possible by the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, the completion of maintenance at major facilities, continued sector investment and a still-supportive commodities backdrop.”In other words, kick back, crack a soda and enjoy the summer, Alberta. You’ve earned it.
