It’s a bad news story for British Columbians. But an exceedingly good one for Alberta.That’s because the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is expected to contribute more to Canada’s gross domestic product this year than the entire province of BC.According to Statistics Canada forecasts, the TMX pipeline expansion that went into service earlier this year is expected to add about 0.25% to Canada’s overall GDP in 2024 compared to 0.23% for all of BC.The irony is that BC’s economy has traditionally relied on resource projects for growth. Critics said the numbers reflect growing investor uncertainty in traditional sectors such as forestry and mining as it lurches to a provincial election later this fall..Meanwhile, TMX continues to exceed expectations after it announced its first cargoes to Japan and South Korea and increasing volumes to China.According to various sources, South Korean refiner GS Caltex will split a 550,000-barrel Cold Lake crude cargo with Japan's top refiner ENEOS. South Korea's SK Energy is reported to have contracted a 1.1 million barrels From Asian refiners at discounts of up to USD$6 a barrel to Brent, which was trading at nearly $84 on Tuesday.By comparison, the differential for pipelined barrels shipped overland to the Gulf of Mexico was about $13.40 to West Texas Intermediate, which stood at $80.80 on Tuesday.In other words, TMX is proving to pay off handsomely despite its overinflated price tag. The final price tag was more than CAD$35 billion or almost five times more than its initial $7 billion estimate..According to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Brussels-based maritime analytics firm Kpler, Cold Lake heavy bitumen blend is about $10 per barrel cheaper than similar grades from countries such as Iraq."Canada's TMX crude attracts interest from Asian buyers who are keen to secure cheap supplies of heavy grades but do not have access to U.S.-sanctioned Venezuelan crude," XU told Reuters. "It will still take some time for refiners to experiment with and test TMX crude as the first few cargoes have just arrived."
