It’s the gift that keeps on giving..Alberta’s oil and energy products put Canada’s balance of trade firmly in the black last year, according to new data from Statistics Canada.. Canada imports and exportsCanada’s imports and exports and balance of trade (red line). .Fuelled by a 2% jump in crude oil exports and a 51% increase in the value of those exports, energy accounted for more than half — $76.9 billion — of a $142 billion surge in Canada’s overall global trade..In 2022, the value of Canada's annual merchandise exports increased 22.5% to $779.2 billion, while the value of annual imports rose 19.9% to $757.4 billion.. Value of Canada’s energy exportsValue of Canada’s energy exports Hit new highs in 2022. .As a result, Canada's trade surplus with the world widened from $4.6 billion in 2021 to $21.8 billion in 2022. It was only the fourth surplus since 2008..The share of energy products as a proportion of those total exports increased significantly, rising from 21.2% in 2021 — the first surplus since 2014 — to a peak of 27.2% last year..Excluding energy products, Canada's merchandise exports would have only rose 13.2% in 2022. . Product exports 2022Product contribution to Canada’s balance of trade. .“Market prices (for energy) had started to rise at the beginning of 2021, driven by strong global demand following COVID-19-related restrictions that had limited the use of transportation as well as production within some energy-intensive industries,” StatsCan said in its Daily commentary. .Energy prices had already risen by 75% in 2021 compared with 2020, and further increased by another 53.8% in 2022..“While these effects on prices seemed to dissipate in late 2021, uncertainty about a possible conflict in Ukraine drove prices up in early 2022. These prices reached record highs in March 2022 when the conflict broke out, and then in June, before falling for the last six months of the year.”.Other factors that contributed to the decline in Canadian oil prices in the second half of the year included the use of strategic crude oil reserves in the US, the anticipation of a global economic slowdown and a possible decline in demand in the context of the rapid increase in borrowing costs (interest rate increases by central banks), said Statistics Canada..Led by production increases in Alberta, exports of crude oil in volume terms have almost doubled in Canada since 2010..Even more impressive, the value of natural gas exports grew 85% in 2022 on the back of an 8.1% increase in volumes. .Once again, price increases due to the war in Ukraine contributed most to the gain. .Because of the sudden decrease in gas exports from Russia to many European destinations due to economic sanctions, demand for North American natural gas increased sharply in 2022 as US LNG exports to Europe more than doubled year-over-year. That in turn resulted in lower North American inventories which boosted prices even more. .As with crude oil, natural gas prices rose sharply in the first half of the year and then fell in the second half..However, Canadian natural gas export prices rebounded last December when harsh winter conditions in the US caused prices to soar. .Although it expects 2023 to be a “turbulent year” for energy exports, further growth of the European LNG market could continue to constrain natural gas inventories in North America, thereby making North American prices more volatile. .For example, low inventories could make natural gas prices more sensitive to weather events in the US during the winter.
It’s the gift that keeps on giving..Alberta’s oil and energy products put Canada’s balance of trade firmly in the black last year, according to new data from Statistics Canada.. Canada imports and exportsCanada’s imports and exports and balance of trade (red line). .Fuelled by a 2% jump in crude oil exports and a 51% increase in the value of those exports, energy accounted for more than half — $76.9 billion — of a $142 billion surge in Canada’s overall global trade..In 2022, the value of Canada's annual merchandise exports increased 22.5% to $779.2 billion, while the value of annual imports rose 19.9% to $757.4 billion.. Value of Canada’s energy exportsValue of Canada’s energy exports Hit new highs in 2022. .As a result, Canada's trade surplus with the world widened from $4.6 billion in 2021 to $21.8 billion in 2022. It was only the fourth surplus since 2008..The share of energy products as a proportion of those total exports increased significantly, rising from 21.2% in 2021 — the first surplus since 2014 — to a peak of 27.2% last year..Excluding energy products, Canada's merchandise exports would have only rose 13.2% in 2022. . Product exports 2022Product contribution to Canada’s balance of trade. .“Market prices (for energy) had started to rise at the beginning of 2021, driven by strong global demand following COVID-19-related restrictions that had limited the use of transportation as well as production within some energy-intensive industries,” StatsCan said in its Daily commentary. .Energy prices had already risen by 75% in 2021 compared with 2020, and further increased by another 53.8% in 2022..“While these effects on prices seemed to dissipate in late 2021, uncertainty about a possible conflict in Ukraine drove prices up in early 2022. These prices reached record highs in March 2022 when the conflict broke out, and then in June, before falling for the last six months of the year.”.Other factors that contributed to the decline in Canadian oil prices in the second half of the year included the use of strategic crude oil reserves in the US, the anticipation of a global economic slowdown and a possible decline in demand in the context of the rapid increase in borrowing costs (interest rate increases by central banks), said Statistics Canada..Led by production increases in Alberta, exports of crude oil in volume terms have almost doubled in Canada since 2010..Even more impressive, the value of natural gas exports grew 85% in 2022 on the back of an 8.1% increase in volumes. .Once again, price increases due to the war in Ukraine contributed most to the gain. .Because of the sudden decrease in gas exports from Russia to many European destinations due to economic sanctions, demand for North American natural gas increased sharply in 2022 as US LNG exports to Europe more than doubled year-over-year. That in turn resulted in lower North American inventories which boosted prices even more. .As with crude oil, natural gas prices rose sharply in the first half of the year and then fell in the second half..However, Canadian natural gas export prices rebounded last December when harsh winter conditions in the US caused prices to soar. .Although it expects 2023 to be a “turbulent year” for energy exports, further growth of the European LNG market could continue to constrain natural gas inventories in North America, thereby making North American prices more volatile. .For example, low inventories could make natural gas prices more sensitive to weather events in the US during the winter.
