Washington, DC — Heads they win, tails we lose.At stake is 90% of Alberta’s exports to the US, regardless of who wins the White House in the US presidential elections this November. By any measure, the key to Alberta’s future prosperity isn’t in Ottawa, but with whoever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue this fall.In 2023, Alberta exported more than $156 billion worth of products and services to the US, about 50% of that was oil.Conventional wisdom suggests Wild Rose country would be better served under a Donald J. Trump administration compared to Kamala Harris, whose boss Joe Biden cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office.But the calculus isn’t as simple as that, according to James Rajotte, Alberta’s senior point man on trade in Washington DC.In an exclusive interview with the Western Standard, Rajotte said it’s important to work with whoever is ultimately elected in November, regardless of where their political sensitivities lie. And there’s a lot to win — or lose — by playing favourites.“You could have all Republicans. Or you could have a mix, but you're going to have certainly tight majorities in both Houses. So to try to see where you can make some policy difference, that will be our challenge. And then obviously, to see what the impact is of, say, Trump, 2.0,” he said. “So, no, it's not so much about the politics.”.Whereas The Donald has been more amenable to fossil fuels lie oil and gas, a potential Harris administration would likely favour Alberta’s advances in green tech and specifically the huge strides made in areas like hydrogen from the UCP government under Premier Danielle Smith.The US has announced seven hydrogen hubs of its own and that puts Alberta in good stead to try to leapfrog on the trillion-plus dollars the US is sinking into renewable energy under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).Rajotte notes that Alberta had more than 80% of all renewable investment in Canada last year — thanks to its deregulated market — which puts it on par with states like Texas in becoming global leaders in energy tech.Score one for Harris..Trump has been less clear on the issue of tariffs. In fact, he’s been crystal clear on the issue of smacking import duties on products from countries like China, but more fuzzy on Canada and specifically oil.Speaking in New York on Thursday, Trump vowed 200% tariffs on “everything”, including imported oil. He could have been referring to OPEC, but the fact is the US derives more than 60% of its imports from Alberta. .In that regard, it’s not clear who is more protectionist — Harris or Trump.Rajotte notes the Trump was a big backer of the new USMCA trade agreement that replaced the old NAFTA, which he called “the worst trade deal, ever.”That’s notwithstanding Alberta is still trying to recoup billions dollars in damages under the old NAFTA free trade agreement because Trump couldn’t get Keystone XL approved while he was president the first time.“Again, that's why we're really trying to understand — what he would do, how that would apply. Because at the convention itself, he spoke about USMCA, which is his agreement… and he thinks that was a very good deal.”“You know, when I talk to senators and they'll say, ‘well, yeah, they cancelled KXL so that was a terrible thing. We feel bad about that.’ So maybe we should take more of an American approach to energy and say, well, there are 70 plus pipelines across our border… Seven Zero. So we are integrated. We are your Number One provider. We're also your number one foreign customer.”
Washington, DC — Heads they win, tails we lose.At stake is 90% of Alberta’s exports to the US, regardless of who wins the White House in the US presidential elections this November. By any measure, the key to Alberta’s future prosperity isn’t in Ottawa, but with whoever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue this fall.In 2023, Alberta exported more than $156 billion worth of products and services to the US, about 50% of that was oil.Conventional wisdom suggests Wild Rose country would be better served under a Donald J. Trump administration compared to Kamala Harris, whose boss Joe Biden cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office.But the calculus isn’t as simple as that, according to James Rajotte, Alberta’s senior point man on trade in Washington DC.In an exclusive interview with the Western Standard, Rajotte said it’s important to work with whoever is ultimately elected in November, regardless of where their political sensitivities lie. And there’s a lot to win — or lose — by playing favourites.“You could have all Republicans. Or you could have a mix, but you're going to have certainly tight majorities in both Houses. So to try to see where you can make some policy difference, that will be our challenge. And then obviously, to see what the impact is of, say, Trump, 2.0,” he said. “So, no, it's not so much about the politics.”.Whereas The Donald has been more amenable to fossil fuels lie oil and gas, a potential Harris administration would likely favour Alberta’s advances in green tech and specifically the huge strides made in areas like hydrogen from the UCP government under Premier Danielle Smith.The US has announced seven hydrogen hubs of its own and that puts Alberta in good stead to try to leapfrog on the trillion-plus dollars the US is sinking into renewable energy under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).Rajotte notes that Alberta had more than 80% of all renewable investment in Canada last year — thanks to its deregulated market — which puts it on par with states like Texas in becoming global leaders in energy tech.Score one for Harris..Trump has been less clear on the issue of tariffs. In fact, he’s been crystal clear on the issue of smacking import duties on products from countries like China, but more fuzzy on Canada and specifically oil.Speaking in New York on Thursday, Trump vowed 200% tariffs on “everything”, including imported oil. He could have been referring to OPEC, but the fact is the US derives more than 60% of its imports from Alberta. .In that regard, it’s not clear who is more protectionist — Harris or Trump.Rajotte notes the Trump was a big backer of the new USMCA trade agreement that replaced the old NAFTA, which he called “the worst trade deal, ever.”That’s notwithstanding Alberta is still trying to recoup billions dollars in damages under the old NAFTA free trade agreement because Trump couldn’t get Keystone XL approved while he was president the first time.“Again, that's why we're really trying to understand — what he would do, how that would apply. Because at the convention itself, he spoke about USMCA, which is his agreement… and he thinks that was a very good deal.”“You know, when I talk to senators and they'll say, ‘well, yeah, they cancelled KXL so that was a terrible thing. We feel bad about that.’ So maybe we should take more of an American approach to energy and say, well, there are 70 plus pipelines across our border… Seven Zero. So we are integrated. We are your Number One provider. We're also your number one foreign customer.”
