Two more years. And billions in potential losses for both taxpayers and Calgary’s oil producers.That’s how long and how much Trans Mountain says it will cost the Canadian energy industry if it isn’t allowed to proceed with a proposed deviation along stretch of the embattled pipeline expansion between Chilliwack and Hope, according to a regulatory filing late Thursday.With the pipeline almost 95% complete, the company earlier this month had applied to the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) to change the technical specifications on a 2.3 kilometre stretch through the Lower Mainland to finish one of the final remaining sections before bringing it into service early next year.On Dec. 5, it was rejected without explanation, pending reasons for decision.The company had applied to reduce the diameter of the segment to 30 inches from 36 in order to accommodate an existing hole it said would have no impact on throughput.But in a technical briefing, it now says widening it to accommodate the wider pipe would threaten the structural integrity of the hole and cause it to collapse. If that were the case, the entire project would be delayed as much as two more years. .“If the (drilling) fails and Trans Mountain is required to implement an alternative installation plan, the (expansion) schedule will likely be delayed by approximately two years, and Trans Mountain will suffer billions of dollars in losses. These outcomes would not be in the public interest," it said.That would be on top of the $30.9 billion already spent on the expansion to date, more than $21 billion over and above its original price estimate. It also wouldn’t include the $4.5 billion the federal government spent to buy the troubled project in the first place.And it certainly wouldn’t include the billions in losses from oil producers already ramping up some 600,000 barrels per day of additional production to fill it.Those already discounted barrels are flowing into storage tanks or awaiting shipment by rail to southern Gulf Coast ports..The irony is that Trans Mountain had previously warned of a 55-60 day delay if its application was denied. It is now asking for a decision from the CER no later than January 9 to allow it to proceed.Micheal Dunn, managing research director with Stifel brokerage in Calgary, said in a note that “this obviously presents a new risk” to Western Canadian producers.“However, given the more compelling information provided by Trans Mountain in this latest filing, we suspect the CER will approve this request.”
Two more years. And billions in potential losses for both taxpayers and Calgary’s oil producers.That’s how long and how much Trans Mountain says it will cost the Canadian energy industry if it isn’t allowed to proceed with a proposed deviation along stretch of the embattled pipeline expansion between Chilliwack and Hope, according to a regulatory filing late Thursday.With the pipeline almost 95% complete, the company earlier this month had applied to the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) to change the technical specifications on a 2.3 kilometre stretch through the Lower Mainland to finish one of the final remaining sections before bringing it into service early next year.On Dec. 5, it was rejected without explanation, pending reasons for decision.The company had applied to reduce the diameter of the segment to 30 inches from 36 in order to accommodate an existing hole it said would have no impact on throughput.But in a technical briefing, it now says widening it to accommodate the wider pipe would threaten the structural integrity of the hole and cause it to collapse. If that were the case, the entire project would be delayed as much as two more years. .“If the (drilling) fails and Trans Mountain is required to implement an alternative installation plan, the (expansion) schedule will likely be delayed by approximately two years, and Trans Mountain will suffer billions of dollars in losses. These outcomes would not be in the public interest," it said.That would be on top of the $30.9 billion already spent on the expansion to date, more than $21 billion over and above its original price estimate. It also wouldn’t include the $4.5 billion the federal government spent to buy the troubled project in the first place.And it certainly wouldn’t include the billions in losses from oil producers already ramping up some 600,000 barrels per day of additional production to fill it.Those already discounted barrels are flowing into storage tanks or awaiting shipment by rail to southern Gulf Coast ports..The irony is that Trans Mountain had previously warned of a 55-60 day delay if its application was denied. It is now asking for a decision from the CER no later than January 9 to allow it to proceed.Micheal Dunn, managing research director with Stifel brokerage in Calgary, said in a note that “this obviously presents a new risk” to Western Canadian producers.“However, given the more compelling information provided by Trans Mountain in this latest filing, we suspect the CER will approve this request.”
