Expectations that the trio of Bank of Canada rate cuts since June would reignite the Greater Vancouver Area’s (GVA) real estate market did not materialize in September, with the Greater Vancouver Realtors association (GVR) reporting 1,852 sales for the month, a 3.8% decline from September, 2023.

“Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics.

“Sales continue trending roughly 25% below the ten-year seasonal average in the region, which, believe it or not, is a trend that has been in place for a few years now. With the September data, sales are now tracking slightly below our forecast however, but we remain optimistic sales will still end 2024 higher than 2023.”

As was the case in most major Canadian markets, new listings last month were up, reaching 6,144 homes in the GVA, including single-family, attached and apartments, a 12.8% increase from the 5,446 new listings in September 2023.

The new listings took the total number of properties listed for sale to 14,932, 31.2% more than September last year.

The sales-to-active listing ratio remained low at 12.8%, putting it in territory that is close to affecting home prices. GVR says downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period. In terms of home type, the ratio is 9.1% for single-family homes, 16.9% for attached homes and 14.6% for apartments.

“With some buyers choosing to stay on the sidelines, inventory levels have sustained the healthy gains achieved over the course of this year, providing much more selection to anyone searching for a home,” Lis said.

“With all this choice available, prices have trended sideways for the past few months. The September figures, however, are now showing modest declines across all segments on a month over month basis.”

“This downward pressure on prices is a result of sales not keeping pace with the number of newly listed properties coming to market, which has now put the overall market on the cusp of a buyers’ market."

"With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines.”

The aggregate benchmark price in Metro Vancouver was $1,179,700 at the end of September, a 1.8% decrease over September 2023 and down 1.4% from August 2024.

Single-family sales reached 516 homes, a 9.8% decrease, year-over-year, with the single-family home benchmark price hitting $2,022,200, a small 0.5% increase from September 2023, but down 1.3% from August 2024.

There were 940 apartment sales in September 2024, a 4.9% decrease from 988 sales in September 2023, with the benchmark price settling $762,000, year-over-year decrease of 0.8% and the same decrease compared to august.

Attached home sales in September 2024 were 378, a 7.4% increase over the 352 sales in September 2023, with the benchmark price of a townhome reaching $1,099,200, a decrease of 0.5% year-over-year and a 1.8% decrease compared to August 2024.

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